TABLE 1
Impact of Immigration on Social Security Finances (Billions of 1998 Dollars)
| 25 Years
| 50 Years
| 75 Years
|
| 1998-2022
| 1991-2040
| 1991-2065 |
800,000 Net Immigration Per Year
| | | |
Average Annual Increase in Net Trust Fund Balance | $19.3 | $22.3 | $25.8
|
Total Increase in Net Trust Fund Balance | $484 | $1,117 | $1,934
|
1,000,000 Net Immigration Per Year
| | | |
Average Annual Increase in Net Trust Fund Balance | $24.2 | $27.9 | $32.2
|
Total Increase in Net Trust Fund Balance | $604 | $1,396 | $2,418
|
Source: Authors calculations based on Social Security Administration, Federal Old Age and Survivors Insurance and Disability Insurance Trust Funds, Board of Trustees' Report, Washington, D.C., GPO, 1998.
TABLE 2
Table 1: Net Native Migration and Net Immigration: The United States and the Top-Six Immigrant Recipient States
State
| Net Change in International (1,000s)
| Net Domestic Migration (1,000s) |
| | |
California | 2,019 | -2,082
|
Florida | 553 | 1,035
|
Illinois | 337 | -516
|
New Jersey | 360 | -350
|
New York | 1,021 | -1,722
|
Texas | 656 | 541
|
Six-state sub-total | 4,946 | -3,095
|
United States Total | 6,697 | 0
|
TABLE 3
Table 1 Mean Years of Schooling Obtained by All Natives and Immigrants in the United States Ages 16-64
Year:
| 1970
| | | 1980
| | | 1990
| | |
| Native
| Immigr
| Gap
| Native
| Immigr
| Gap
| Native
| Immigr
| Gap |
All Men | 11.36 | 10.59 | 0.77 | 12.42 | 11.61 | 11.61 | 11.61 | 11.61 | 11.61 |
All Women | 11.26 | 10.05 | 1.21 | 12.17 | 11.00 | 11.00 | 11.00 | 11.00 | 11.00 |
Source: Betts and Lofstrom (forthcoming, Tables 1 and 2)
TABLE 4
Table 2 Estimates of the Predicted Drop in the Probability of Graduation Given a Rise in the Ratio of Immigrants to the Overall Population
Native Group for Which Graduation Probability Modeled:
| Black Natives
| Hispanic Natives |
| | |
Change in Proportion of Immigrants in Local Population Aged 19-25, 1980-1990 | 0.0296 | 0.0638
|
Predicted Change in Probability that Natives of Given Group Graduate from High School | -0.0073 | -0.0367
|
Source: Betts (1998, Table 8.5)