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APPENDIX 1:
Written Testimony, Biographies, Financial Disclosures, and Answers to Post-Hearing Questions
PREPARED STATEMENT OF SCOTT B. GUDES
Thank you, Mr. Chairman, and members of the Committee, for this opportunity to testify on the President's FY 2002 Budget Request for the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA).
Let me begin by saying that NOAA, a key component of the Department of Commerce, plays a vital role in the everyday lives of our citizens through our numerous contributions to the Nation's economic and environmental health. In a period of strongly competing Government priorities, the President's FY 2002 Budget Request for NOAA is $3,152.3 million in total budget authority for NOAA and represents a decrease of $60.8 million below the FY 2001 Enacted levels. Within this funding level, NOAA proposes essential realignments that allow for a total of $270.0 million in program increases in critical areas such as infrastructure, severe weather prediction, coastal conservation, living marine resources, and climate.
The funding requested in the FY 2002 President's Budget Request will allow NOAA to ensure that our vision for environmental stewardship, assessment, and prediction of the Nation's resources becomes a reality, and that NOAA will continue to excel in our science and service for the American people.
From weather forecasting to fisheries management, from safe navigation to coastal services, remote sensing to climate research and ocean exploration, NOAA is at the forefront of many of this Nation's most critical issues. NOAA's people, products and services provide vital support to the domestic security and global competitiveness of the United States, and positively impact the lives of our citizens, directly and indirectly, every single day.
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NOAA's mission is to describe and predict changes in the Earth's environment and to conserve and manage the Nation's coastal and marine resources to ensure sustainable economic opportunities. NOAA implements its mission through its line and staff offices: the National Ocean Service (NOS); the National Marine Fisheries Service (NMFS); the Office of Oceanic and Atmospheric Research (OAR); the National Weather Service (NWS); the National Environmental, Satellite, Data and Information Service (NESDIS); the Office of Marine and Aviation Operations (OMAO); and Corporate Services (CS).
Today, the Nation and the world look to NOAA to provide timely and precise weather forecasts that protect lives and property; to manage fisheries and protected species; to promote and sustain healthy coastlines; to make America more competitive through safe navigation; to examine changes in the oceans; and to inspire and create approaches that will protect and keep our precious natural resources alive for the generations to come.
NOAA conducts research to develop new technologies, improve operations, and supply the scientific basis for managing natural resources and solving environmental problems. NOAA's comprehensive system for acquiring observations—from satellites and radars to ships and submersibles—provides critical data and quality information needed for the safe conduct of daily life and the basic functioning of a modern society.
NOAA's products and services include short-term weather and space-weather forecasts, seasonal climate predictions, long-term global change assessments, environmental technologies, nautical charts, marine fisheries statistics and regulations, hazardous materials response information, and stewardship of the Nation's ocean, coastal, and living marine resources.
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NOAA's programs for FY 2002 support several key cross-cutting initiatives. These cross-cutting initiatives illustrate the degree to which NOAA's programs are inter-related. Each of the component programs within a cross-cutting initiative uniquely contributes to NOAA's ability to meet its mission.
People and Infrastructure
The request for the People and Infrastructure cross-cutting initiative brings together the heart of what NOAA is and does. These are the underlying and interconnecting threads that hold NOAA and its programs together. Investments in NOAA's scientific and technical workforce and NOAA's facilities and equipment is essential to the agency carrying on it's mission into the 21st Century. ''People and Infrastructure'' is about investing in the future.
People
NOAA requests $60.0 million in base adjustments that are critical to preserve and develop NOAA's human capital, our greatest asset. The demand for NOAA's scientific work products and services is expected to increase significantly in FY 2002 and beyond. This trend is evidenced by market responses to increasingly accurate seasonal forecasts, and protection of life and safety. Similar increases in demand for NOAA's products and services are expected from the national energy community and other potential user communities. To ensure NOAA's mission capacity is adequate to respond to these demands, NOAA must continue to invest in its people.
This investment will ensure NOAA's programs are maintained at the current services level. These are ''must-pay'' bills like pay raises, benefits, inflation, and rent. Failure to receive these adjustments in any given year results in program dislocations and minor cutbacks. Failure to receive these adjustments over time has a cumulative erosive effect that can be programmatically devastating. Consequently, these adjustments to NOAA's funding base are essential for NOAA to continue meeting core mission-related requirements and the expectations of the American public.
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Infrastructure
NOAA's facilities and information technology infrastructure directly and immediately impacts the ability of NOAA's program offices to satisfy mission demands. The condition, readiness and vulnerabilities of this infrastructure have direct consequences on human welfare, economic well being, and the advancement of the state of the sciences. To ensure mission capacity, NOAA requests infrastructure funding of $73.3 million in the following key categories: critical systems, construction, maintenance and repair, and NOAA program support.
Systems
NOAA requests a total of $7.5 million for the National Weather Service (NWS) Telecommunications Gateway (NWSTG) Backup, to provide critical infrastructure protection. This investment will enable NOAA to acquire the equipment and facility infrastructure necessary to ensure continuity of operations at the NWSTG. The NWSTG is the Nation's critical telecommunications hub for collecting, processing, and distributing weather data and information. The data processed by the NWSTG are used by hundreds of customers worldwide but the current NWSTG facility, located in NWS headquarters in Silver Spring, MD has no operational backup and is therefore a single point of failure vulnerable to natural disasters, human error, computer viruses, hacker attacks, and terrorism. This investment will mitigate these risks and will enable NOAA to comply with Presidential Directives on critical infrastructure protection and continuity of government operations.
NOAA requests a total of $0.3 million to begin to address the critical single point of failure for NOAA's satellite products. This investment will fund a study to evaluate the backup capabilities for critical satellite products and services currently delivered from Federal Building 4 in Suitland, MD. This initiative is essential to address the potential for a catastrophic outage, which would prevent the delivery of critical satellite data and products to the NWS. In the event of such an outage, approximately 85 percent of the information used in weather forecast models would be lost, seriously limiting the ability to make accurate weather forecasts. This would be particularly dangerous if data was not available during times of severe weather events.
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NOAA requests a total of $4.6 million to ensure Continuity of Critical Facilities for Satellite Operations. This investment will allow NOAA to address deficiencies and risks associated with the infrastructure of the NOAA environmental satellite command and control centers at Wallops, VA and Fairbanks, AK. This initiative forms a cohesive approach to resolving known infrastructure problems by reducing facilities' threats and risks, and completing the renovation/repair of the Satellite Operations Control Center. These problems could jeopardize NESDIS' ability to control the Nation's environmental satellite systems and potentially lose in-orbit assets.
Construction
The total request of $12.0 million for National Weather Service (NWS) Weather Forecast Office Construction represents an increase of $2.5 million above the FY 2001 Enacted level. This continued investment will ensure the continuation of critical facility modernization efforts in the NWS. In FY 2002, NWS plans to finalize construction of the new Weather Forecast Office in Caribou, Maine and complete the new Alaska Tsunami Warning Center in Palmer, Alaska. NWS also plans to complete modernization of the weather offices in Hilo, Hawaii and Kotzebue, Alaska.
Maintenance
The total request of $4.6 million for Weather Forecast Office (WFO) Maintenance represents an increase of $0.3 million above the FY 2001 Enacted level. This continued investment will allow NWS to fund recurring maintenance contracts and address a backlog of over $7.0 million in deferred maintenance repair actions. WFOs provide forecasters with modernized facilities, supporting the advanced technology systems and the provision of weather service to the public. As the WFOs continue to age, the facilities require a significant investment in recurring and cyclic maintenance, including replacement of major facility support systems such as power backup and heating, ventilation, and air conditioning. The request will allow NWS to protect the $250 million capital investment in modernized facilities in accordance with GSA and private industry standards.
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NOAA's request of $3.6 million for Facilities Maintenance, Repairs and Safety represents an increase of $1.7 million above the FY 2001 Enacted level. This continued investment will allow for remediation of NOAA's deteriorating facilities. NOAA's capital assets, totaling 496 installations spread across all 50 states are valued in the hundreds of millions of dollars. The majority of these facilities are over 30 years old, and 29 percent are over 40 years in age. To date, renovations have been relatively few, and maintenance has been chronically deferred. NOAA has already identified a project backlog of over $50 million in maintenance and repair, and this continues to grow as a comprehensive facility assessment unfolds. Major systems in many facilities are in imminent danger of failure, or are well past their useful lives. These requested funds will help address this backlog of facilities maintenance, repair and safety.
The total request of $5.0 million for Boulder Facilities Operations represents an increase of $1.0 million above the FY 2001 Enacted level. This provides funds for rent charges levied by the GSA which owns and operates the facility. This is a ''must pay'' bill, without which the science programs would bear the burden.
Support
The President's Budget request for FY 2002 includes $2.3 million for the Cooperative Observer Network, which represents an increase of $1.9 million above the FY 2001 Enacted level. This continued investment supports a nationwide network of over 11,000 volunteer operated weather observing sites used by NOAA to maintain the Nation's climate record and to provide data to local NWS field offices. These sites are staffed by citizens dedicated to maintaining climate records and assisting the NWS. In a recent report, the National Research Council recommended that NOAA take immediate steps to sustain and modernize this critical network. NWS plans to replace 900 rain gauges and 200 temperature sensors in FY 2002. This is the first of an anticipated 3-year rescue effort which will result in the total replacement of 2700 rain gauges and 5000 temperature sensors.
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The total request of $14.2 million for Aircraft Services represents an increase of $2.4 million above the FY 2001 Enacted level. This continued investment will provide an additional 300 flight hours for data collection for a total of 1970 flight hours. Of these additional flight hours, 150 flight hours are specifically for hurricane surveillance and for severe winter storms. Another 150 flight hours will support measurements of ocean winds during high windspeed conditions, which are critical to planning for future satellite sensors. These flying hours will enable NOAA to more efficiently use its heavy aircraft and to maintain pilot proficiency during data collection under severe weather conditions.
Maintain Satellite Continuity and Severe Weather Forecasts
Critical to meeting our 21st Century mission is the continuity of NOAA's Satellites and Severe Weather Forecasts. In order to ensure our success, the FY 2002 President's Budget Request includes a total of $712.3 million, of which $127.1 million is new funding. The programs that comprise this initiative are summarized in the preceding table and the program descriptions below.
Satellite and Data Services
NOAA's total request of $65.0 million for Environmental Observing Services represents an increase of $14.3 million above the FY 2001 Enacted level. This continued investment supports the operations of all of the NESDIS satellite systems, the ingesting and processing of satellite data, and the development of new product applications required for continuity of operations. NESDIS provides satellite command and control services on a 24 hours per day, 365 days per year schedule. Funding is required to keep up with increases in labor costs, software licensing, communications, and ground system maintenance. Requirements have expanded due to greater demands on operations and control, greater amounts of data requirements for new products, requirements for more advanced software and the development of improved products, and increased demand to support users.
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The total request of $146.3 million for Polar Orbiting Satellites represents an increase of $9.6 million above the FY 2001 Enacted level. This continued investment will allow for the continuation of spacecraft production (NOAA K–N'). It will also allow for completion of the instruments for the European Meteorological Operational (METOP) satellites which is expected to replace NOAA's morning polar orbiting satellite during calendar year 2005. Funding is included for upgrading and replacing aging and deteriorating ground systems to allow for continuation of operations for the Polar K–N' series through the end of its lifetime in about 2012. These ground systems are needed in order to communicate with the satellites until the last of the series is decommissioned. In addition, funds provide for replacing and upgrading the aging product generation and distribution system.
Funding in the amount of $156.6 million is included in NOAA's budget request for the National Polar Orbiting Environmental Satellite System (NPOESS) represents an increase of $83.4 million above the FY 2001 Enacted level. This continued investment will allow for the convergence of NOAA's Polar program, the Department of Defense's (DOD) Defense Meteorological Satellite Program and National Aeronautic and Space Agency's (NASA) research and development into a single satellite system that will save the United States Government millions of dollars over the life of the program. NPOESS is essential to meeting both NOAA's requirements in weather forecasting, oceanography, climate and search and rescue services as well as the DOD's National Security mission. NOAA has only three remaining current generation satellites on the ground to use until the first NPOESS satellite is delivered in late 2008. NPOESS needs to stay on schedule as provided for in this FY 2002 Budget Request to help ensure that polar data continuity is maintained. NPOESS satellites are critical for weather forecasting, climate observations, U.S. military operations on a worldwide basis, and search and rescue operations.
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The total request of $293.3 million for the Geostationary Orbiting Environmental Satellite (GOES) Program represents an increase of $3.1 million above the FY 2001 Enacted level. This continued investment will fund the spacecrafts and launch services, including the launch vehicle and launch control personnel. Funding is necessary to maintain continuity of geostationary operations.
NOAA requests a total of $1.2 million for the Commercial Remote Sensing Licensing Program. This investment will ensure the timely review and processing of satellite license applications. Under the Land Remote Sensing Policy Act of 1992 (as amended in 1998), NOAA is charged with licensing and enforcing licenses of the U.S. private sector remote sensing industry. Funding will be used to establish a program to provide technical support for such reviews, support of an industry advisory mechanism, and computer infrastructure. Major monitoring and compliance activities will include review of quarterly licensee reports, on-site inspections, audits, license violation enforcement, and implementation of shutter control in national security and foreign policy crisis situations.
The total request of $31.4 million for Data and Information Services—operational activities represents an increase of $6.5 million above the FY 2001 Enacted level. This continued investment is for core operational activities and will increase the Data Centers capacity to ingest, process, and archive data as well as continue the rescue of valuable environmental data. Requirements have expanded due to growing customer demands for data and products, and increased data management has become a necessity as the volume of new data continues to grow. Combined with other funding for fisheries oceanography, habitat characterization, the climate reference network, climate database modernization, and environmental data systems modernization, these funds support NESDIS' Data and Information sub-activity request.
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Severe Weather Forecasts
The total request of $3.7 million for the U.S. Weather Research Program (USWRP) represents an increase of $2.2 million above the FY 2001 Enacted level. This continued investment in research will improve the accuracy of hurricane landfall predictions for location, intensity, and rainfall estimates. Decreased error and uncertainty in hurricane forecasts will save lives and will help reduce the length of coastline recommended for evacuation during these powerful storms. This will allow localities to avoid millions of dollars worth of unnecessary preparations, and, at the same time, encourage those in the warned areas to have greater confidence in the accuracy of the warnings. The USWRP is a partnership between NOAA, other Federal Agencies, and universities.
NOAA's total request of $5.1 million for Automated Surface Observing Systems (ASOS) represents an increase of $1.3 million above the FY 2001 Enacted level. This continued investment will complete the acquisition of 346 new ASOS dewpoint sensors. The existing dewpoint sensors fail on average every ten days and have the highest failure rate in the ASOS suite of sensors, and consequently are in need of replacement. These funds will also complete the acquisition of 346 new ASOS processor units which are needed because the current processors are over capacity. Lastly, these funds will allow NOAA to begin acquisition of the all-weather precipitation gauge necessary for climate record continuity and aviation safety. In FY 2002, NOAA will acquire 115 all-weather precipitation gauges.
The FY 2002 total request of $5.9 million for the National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP)—Environmental Modeling Center represents an increase of $1.7 million above the FY 2001 Enacted level. This continued investment will sustain operations at NCEP's Environmental Modeling Center (EMC). The EMC develops the computer models and other numerical forecast products which provide the basic guidance that forecasters use in making weather and climate forecasts. Today, the EMC is overly dependent on external sources of funding for its operations, degrading its ability to transfer proven weather forecasting science into NWS operations. The National Research Council in its report From Research to Operations in Weather Satellites and Numerical Weather Prediction: Crossing the Valley of Death, states ''Almost all of the Nation's operational weather and climate guidance products come from EMC, which does not presently possess the necessary resources to transfer many of the U.S. advances in observations and modeling to operations.'' In FY 2002, NWS plans to provide direct base support for its suite of operational forecast models, including the aviation, regional, and global models.
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NOAA requests a total of $3.8 million for Data Assimilation and the Joint Center for Satellite Data Assimilation. This request comprises $3.0 million for data assimilation and $0.8 million for the Joint Center for Satellite Data Assimilation. The investment for data assimilation will allow NOAA to improve data assimilation and modeling at the National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP). Data assimilation is the collection and processing of weather observations (satellite, aircraft, radar, data buoys, upper-air balloons) for use in operational numerical weather prediction models. These models are the foundation for all short and medium range and severe weather forecasts including aviation, marine, hurricane, rainfall, and severe weather. This critical funding request aims to improve forecasts through the use of enhanced satellite data and other data-sets in the NCEP prediction models, leveraging one of the Nation's largest capital investments in global and environmental observing systems. Investment in data assimilation ensures that the large investment in observing systems and computers has maximum benefit for the public.
In addition to data assimilation, $0.8 million will be used to establish the Joint Center for Satellite Data Assimilation with NWS, NESDIS and NOAA Research in order to accelerate and improve the use of satellite data in forecast models. The core scientific staff and computing facilities of this ''virtual'' Center will consist of current NOAA resources. This request will allow for NOAA to accelerate the use of current and future satellite data in NWS weather and climate prediction operations. In addition to the NOAA contributions, NASA, with a similar level of support, will be a partner in a coordinated national effort to realize the full potential of the vast quantities of new satellite data that are becoming available. This center will make more effective use of NOAA remotely sensed data as well as integrate NASA, Department of Defense, and international satellite data into NOAA's operational models.
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Climate Services
From the storms of next week to the drought of next season to the potential human-induced climate change over the coming century, issues of climate variability and change will be continue to be a major issue for the Nation. Whether responding to the ongoing drought in the Pacific Northwest and its effect on power generation and endangered salmon, or in determining how much atmospheric carbon dioxide is taken up by the North American biosphere, these questions influence users from the Western water manager to the shapers of national policy. The challenge is to extend the research successes, maintain the observational backbone, and improve the capability to provide useful information services to our customers. Improved climate predictions will enable resource managers in climate sensitive sectors such as agriculture, water management, and energy supply to alter strategies and reduce economic vulnerability. Building on the understanding of the Earth's climate system that has resulted from the Nation's strong scientific research and numerical modeling programs, this Climate Observations and Services Program will begin the transition of research data, observing systems and understanding from experiments to applications, and from basic science to practical products.
NOAA maintains a balanced program of focused research, large-scale observational programs, modeling on seasonal-centennial time scales, and data management. In addition to its responsibilities in weather prediction, NOAA has pioneered in the research and operational prediction of climate variability associated with the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO). With agency and international partners, NOAA has been a leader in the assessments of climate change, stratospheric ozone depletion, and the global carbon cycle. NOAA scientists have been leaders internationally in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). It maintains national coordination through participation in the U.S. Global Change Research Program.
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The agency-wide Climate Observations and Services activity represents a partnership that allows NOAA to facilitate the transition of research observing and data systems and knowledge into operational systems and products. During recent years, there has been a growing demand from emergency managers, the private sector, the research community, decision-makers in the United States and international governmental agencies and the general public to provide timely data and information about climate variability, climate change and trends in extreme weather events. The economic and social need for continuous, reliable climate data and longer-range climate forecasts has been clearly demonstrated. NOAA's Climate Observations and Services Initiative responds to these needs. The following efforts will be supported by this initiative:
The total funding request for NOAA's Continuing Climate Services is $11.0 million. These continued investments will allow NOAA to build on the climate activities started in FY 2001.
NOAA's FY 2002 budget request includes $3.0 million for the Climate Reference Network. In order to ensure NOAA's capability to monitor very long-term changes of temperature and precipitation, a climate reference network consisting of several hundred stations must be developed by making use of the historical data from the best sites in the network of 11,000 cooperative observing sites. This climate reference network will build on data from stations identified as those with the longest environmentally stable records, most dedicated observers, and most reliable data with few interruptions.
Also included in NOAA's request of $1.0 for improving the Availability of Climate Data and Information: $1.0 million. As the observational capabilities increase and the observing networks expand, it is essential that data management and dissemination systems are in place to make the resulting data and information widely and easily accessible to public and private sector decision makers. During recent years, NOAA has struggled to respond adequately to questions from industry, the general public, and the Government regarding potential changes in weather and climate events. NOAA is developing the required infrastructure to assemble, develop, and communicate the data, information, and knowledge about the trends, likelihoods, and future expectations of climate and weather events.
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The request for funding for Baseline Observatories is $2.0 million. Funding for this activity is for operations at NOAA's remote manned Global Atmospheric Baseline Observatories, measuring up to 250 different atmospheric parameters relevant to the study of climate change at: Barrow, AK; Mauna Loa, HI (since 1957); American Samoa; and the South Pole, Antarctica (also since 1957). These observations are critical to the collection and continuity of the world's longest atmospheric time series, supplying the scientific community with information on the state and recovery of the ozone layer, global carbon dioxide, and other trace gases impacting the global climate.
NOAA's request for Ocean Observations in FY 2002 is $5.0 million. NOAA maintains the sustained global observing and data stewardship system necessary for climate research and forecasting as well as the long-term monitoring system necessary for climate change detection and attribution. The observation network is based on a set of ''core'' observations (e.g., temperature, surface wind stress, salinity, sea level, carbon dioxide), consisting of both in-situ and remotely sensed measurements, that have been identified in NOAA and other national and international reports as needed to satisfy research and operational climate requirements.
Regional Assessments, Education and Outreach
NOAA requests a total of $1.9 million for Regional Assessments, Education and Outreach. This investment will allow for regional assessments, education and outreach related to climate variability. The impacts of climate variability from season-to-season or year-to-year manifest themselves on regional and local levels. The goal is utilization of climate variability information by regional and local managers and decision-makers to maximize economic gain and mitigate potential harmful impacts.
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Weather-Climate Connection
NOAA requests a total of $0.9 million for Weather-Climate Connection. This investment will assist in understanding predictions variability beyond the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and predicting the weather-climate connection. As during El Niño, other sub-seasonal tropical fluctuations can also lead to shifts in the Pacific storm track, affecting the paths of storms approaching the U.S. west coast, and influencing weather across the entire country. Sub-seasonal tropical-mid-latitude interactions thereby provide a potentially important additional source of predictability beyond ENSO. NOAA will expand its diagnostic and modeling efforts to understand the relationship between sub-seasonal tropical variability and changes in the frequency, location and intensity of extreme weather events over the U.S., and document the structure of variations in tropical rainfall on weekly to monthly time-scales, as well as air-sea interactions in both tropical systems and in mid-latitude oceanic and land-falling storms.
Carbon Cycle
NOAA requests a total of $2.3 million for the Carbon Cycle. This investment, as part of a multi-agency effort, will allow NOAA to establish a network of more densely spaced airborne and tall-tower based sampling sites over North America. The U.S. scientific community recently completed a plan for an integrated carbon cycle science program which aims to quantify, understand and project the evolution of global carbon sources and sinks in order to better predict future climate.
Ocean System for Improved Climate Services
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NOAA requests a total of $7.3 million for the Ocean System for Improved Climate Services. This investment will contribute to the global operational ocean-observing system by enhancing its present components and establishing new components. Of the $7.3 million requested, $3.2 million is required to support the U.S. commitment to deploy and maintain 1000 ARGO profiling floats in the proposed global array of 3,000 floats. This commitment requires a deployment of 280 ARGO floats per year. The remainder of this request, $4.1 million, supports other observational components including Arctic Ocean fluxes, ocean reference stations, oceanic carbon, and augmentation of the volunteer observing ship (VOS) instrumentation. Finally, investments are to be made for data management and assimilation. Based on a firm scientific foundation, this ocean observing system is closely coupled with other U.S. and international observing efforts, and will greatly improve the data available for understanding climate variation.
Climate Change Assessments
NOAA requests a total of $0.7 million for Climate Change Assessments. This investment will continue contributions to environmental assessments that have become the primary tool to deliver climate information to governments, industry, the scientific community and the general public. Over the past two years NOAA has led and contributed to Ozone assessments under the Montreal Protocol, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), and U.S.
National Assessments. This investment will support NOAA's leadership in assessing climate change and its global impact on the United States and other communities.
High Performance Computing and Communications Program/Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory
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The total request of $7.0 million (in the PAC Account) for the High Performance Computing and Communications (HPCC) Program and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory represents an increase of $3.0 million above the FY 2001 Enacted level. This continued investment will provide full-year support for the High performance supercomputer system at NOAA's Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL). The system will be used full-time to attack some of the most difficult but critical obstacles to developing and testing new and more realistic models for predicting climatic variability, detecting climate change, and forecasting hurricanes. Expansion of GFDL's supercomputer is needed to answer questions regarding long-term global warming and to evaluate various scenarios reflecting different levels of anthropogenic influences on the atmosphere.
Comprehensive Large-Array data Stewardship System
The total request of $3.6 million for the Comprehensive Large-Array data Stewardship System (CLASS) represents an increase of $1.6 million in the Procurement, Acquisition and Construction (PAC) Account. This continued investment will afford efficient management of high volumes of data, including radar and satellite data, as well as data from radiosondes and ocean data buoys. This data is critical to the joint U.S. Global Change Research Program (USGCRP) and the scientific community. Significant increases in the volume of data require a rapid expansion in storage capacity, currently located in Asheville, NC. Similarly, telecommunications and automated access systems upgrades are needed to ensure easy and efficient access to the data.
Other Key NOAA Programs
The total request of $14.0 million for Ocean Exploration represents an increase of $10.0 million above the FY 2001 Enacted level. This continued investment will help re-establish NOAA's leadership in this major initiative of ocean exploration and research. Despite covering 70 percent of Earth's surface, the oceans remain largely unexplored and unknown. Not surprisingly, most of the oceans' resources remain untapped. Our best scientists believe that fewer than 25 percent of the species that live in the oceans have ever been identified. Even within America's own Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ), less than five percent of the ocean floor has been mapped in high resolution. In fact, prior to FY 2001, the United States did not even have a concentrated program of ocean exploration. As a result, NOAA has pursued a course of ocean resource management without adequate decision-making data and information being available to policy makers, regulators, and commercial users of the ocean's resources.
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However, today we live in an age of technological innovation. There are many opportunities that simply were not available in earlier decades. We now can completely rethink how we might conduct exploration in Earth's oceans. Developments in sensors, telemetry, power sources, microcomputers, and materials science have greatly improved our ability to go into and study the undersea frontier.
The benefits of such a program of exploration are potentially enormous. For example, gas hydrates comprise more than 50 percent of all of our planet's carbon—and potentially hold more than 1000 times the fuel in all other estimated reserves combined! In addition, there are certain to be other benefits which currently are beyond our ability even to conceive. With 95 percent of the underwater world still unknown and unseen, what remains to be explored may hold clues to the origins of life on earth, cures for human diseases, answers to how to achieve sustainable use of our oceans, links to our maritime history, and information to protect the endangered species of the sea.
We are stewards of our oceans' resources. Yet, we cannot effectively manage what we do not know. We need to explore the oceans in the same way that the U.S. has successfully explored space. We need to determine what our marine resources are, their relative abundance, and the rates at which they can be used and replenished.
The FY 2002 budget increase will enable NOAA to fund six major and several minor interdisciplinary voyages of discovery that will map the physical, geological, biological, chemical, and archaeological aspects of parts of the U.S. EEZ. NOAA will conduct missions of exploration in the Gulf of Mexico, South Atlantic Bight, Northwest Hawaiian Islands, Northeast Pacific, California, and the Gulf of Alaska. Education and outreach is a major component of NOAA's Ocean Exploration Initiative. NOAA will carry-out this program relying on partnerships with universities, the private sector, and other agencies. NOAA's Ocean Exploration Initiative will help us to fulfill our national strategic goals to Sustain Healthy Coasts, Recover Protected Species, and Build Sustainable Fisheries.
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Marine Environmental Research
The total request of $11.6 million for Marine Environmental Research represents an increase of $1.8 million above the FY 2001 Enacted level. This continued investment will support ongoing operations at OAR's Atlantic Oceanographic Meteorological Laboratory (AOML) and the Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory (PMEL). The restored funds will enable AOML's Remote Sensing Division to reactivate its field measurements that provide data critically needed for major community health-related decisions in contaminant-release emergencies in Florida and elsewhere. Coral reef monitoring activities are also supported. These funds will also enable PMEL's Fisheries Oceanography program to reverse its 20% reduction in ocean measurements planned for the Gulf of Alaska and the Bering Sea. These funds are important to the study of the potential influences of climate changes on recent shifts in the species composition of these ecosystems including declines in salmon and steller sea lion populations.
NOAA requests a total of $19.8 million for the Commerce Administrative Management System (CAMS). This investment will allow for the full benefit and value of CAMS to be realized in NOAA. CAMS is in the final stages of completion, expected in FY 2003, and adequate funding will ensure that CAMS is deployed in a timely manner, allowing all modules to progress toward completion. Once fully deployed, CAMS will contribute in significant ways to maintaining a clean NOAA financial audit through systematic controls rather than through labor-intensive manual efforts. It will provide managers with on-line, real-time, and accurate financial information in support of their programmatic missions, and will be legally compliant. Requested funding for CAMS is vital to preserve NOAA's ability to have a satisfactory financial accounts system and allow NOAA and DOC to meet statutory obligations under the Federal Managers' Financial Integrity Act (FMFIA) and the Chief Financial Officer Act (CFO Act).
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NOAA's Budget and Financial Management
For the Fiscal Year 2000, NOAA received an unqualified opinion on NOAA financial statements from an independent auditor. The FY 2000 audit represents the second consecutive year NOAA has received a clean audit and demonstrates the intensive efforts made by NOAA to improve financial management. NOAA continues to place a high priority on improving fiscal and financial management in order to increase accountability and efficiency.
Over the past several years, NOAA has been working to respond to Congressional concerns stemming from the NOAA budget structure. The Congressional Appropriation Committees have challenged NOAA to make recommendations to simplify its budget structure. NOAA has taken several actions that address the restructuring of its budget and financial management processes. The outcome of these actions is already apparent and demonstrated in its improved budgetary communications as well as in the improved accuracy of its documentation (e.g., sustaining a clean audit and improved timeliness in the distribution of funds). NOAA continues to work toward meeting the challenges of restructuring the NOAA budget and is excited about the improved efficiency a new budget structure will bring.
As evidenced by NOAA's improving financial and budgetary management, NOAA is doing its part to exercise fiscal responsibility as stewards of the Nation's trust as well as America's coastal and ocean resources. And, in the same way that NOAA is responsible for assessing the Nation's climate, we are responsible for assessing our management capabilities. It is within this broader management context that NOAA continues looking for opportunities to improve. As in past years, NOAA's FY 2002 Budget Request includes measures which track results to the level of public investment. NOAA will continue to leverage its programs and investments by developing those associations that most efficiently and economically leverage resources and talent, and that most effectively provide the means for successfully meeting mission requirements.
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73332t.eps
BIOGRAPHY FOR SCOTT B. GUDES
In June 1998, Scott B. Gudes was named deputy under secretary for oceans and atmosphere for the Department of Commerce's National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. The deputy under secretary oversees the management of NOAA's five line offices: the National Weather Service, the National Marine Fisheries Service, the National Ocean Service, NOAA Research, and the National Environmental Satellite, Information and Data Service. He also manages NOAA's ten Staff Offices, the Office of Finance and Administration and the Office of Marine and Aviation Operations. With employees in every U.S. state, at sea, and at many overseas locations, NOAA employs over 12,500 people with a FY 2001 budget of more than $3.2 billion.
NOAA is responsible for all U.S. weather and climate forecasting, monitoring and archiving of ocean and atmospheric data, management of marine fisheries and mammals, mapping and charting of all U.S. waters, coastal zone management, and research and development in all of these areas. NOAA is the largest part of the Department of Commerce and manages the U.S. operational weather and environmental satellites, a fleet of ships and aircraft for oceanographic, surveying, fisheries, coastal, and atmospheric studies, twelve environmental research laboratories, and several large supercomputers.
Mr. Gudes' background and experience have kept him involved in NOAA issues for the past 17 years. He served as NOAA's budget examiner beginning in 1983 at the U.S. Office of Management and Budget until 1986 when he began a career as a Professional Staff Member for the U.S. Senate's Committee on Appropriations. While at Senate Appropriations, he worked for both political parties thus gaining a reputation for bipartisanship.
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In 1990 Mr. Gudes became the staff director for the Commerce, Justice and State, the Judiciary and Related Agencies Subcommittee, under whose auspices the NOAH Budget is supported. His background in Appropriations has made him an integral part and a key figure in the way NOAA presents its budget to Congress, and he is frequently called upon to brief Congressional committees and members on a great variety of NOAA science and management issues. At NOAA he is known for a focus on employees, human resource issues and a commitment to rebuilding the agency's infrastructure.
Mr. Gudes was born and raised in California and studied at the University of Liverpool, United Kingdom, and in California, where he graduated from San Diego State University in 1976. He earned his Masters of Public Administration from California State University at Fullerton two years later. He served as a Presidential Management Intern after graduate school, working in the Office of the Secretary of Defense.
An avid recreational fisherman, golfer and scuba diver, Mr. Gudes highly values marine and coastal conservation and is a champion of NOAA's critical role as the nation's ocean resource steward.
ANSWERS TO POST-HEARING QUESTIONS
MONITORING AND OBSERVATIONAL CAPABILITIES
QUESTION:&Nbsp;Has NOAA ever done an assessment of its own monitoring and observational capabilities across the line-item offices? If so, we would like a copy of the report. If not, we ask that NOAA conduct such a study with input from the Science Board and university community.
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ANSWER:
Climate
There has been an assessment of climate monitoring and observational capabilities as part of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. The assessment was conducted by the Department of Energy, Environmental Protection Agency, Federal Aviation Administration, (verbal from the Office of the Federal Coordinator for Meteorology rep), National Aeronautic and Space Administration, National Resource Conservation Service/Department of Agriculture, National Science Foundation, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), State Department, U.S. Air Force, and the U.S. Geological Survey (verbal). The report has been transmitted to the State Department under the signature of Greg M. Withee, the Assistant Administrator for Satellite and Information Services in NOAA. Greg M. Withee also is a member of the international Global Climate Observing System Steering Committee. The final report, compiled by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, is available on CD–ROM, and is available on the Internet in Adobe PDF format at ftp://ftp.esdim.noaa.gov/pub/gcos/.
There is a great deal of effort underway to promote integration of activities, not only among NOAA Line Offices but also among agencies in other activities, such as ocean monitoring. A copy of the report ''Toward a U.S. Plan for an Integrated, Sustained Ocean Observing System,'' funded partially by NOAA, is available online at http://core.cast.msstate.edu/NOPPobsplan.html. The report's appendix contains a review of all of NOAA's major ocean monitoring activities. Another example is the Integrated Global Observing Strategy (IGOS), which maintains a website at http://www.igospartners.org. IGOS is an international partnership that helps coordinate research, long-term monitoring, and operational programs on issues such as climate.
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Weather
Several reports have been made which access our weather observational and monitoring capabilities, and which cross more than one line office within NOAA. Since weather has wide societal impacts, these reports also frequently expand outside of NOAA.
The National Academy of Sciences' National Research Council issued a report in 1998 on climate observing networks with a section entitled, ''Future of the National Weather Service Cooperative Observing Network,'' is available online at http://www.nap.edu/books/0309061466/html/index.html.
The Automated Surface Observing System (ASOS) measures earth surface weather conditions, such as temperature, wind speed and direction, barometric pressure, cloud height, and visibility. ASOS is a tri-agency program, run by the Department of Defense (DOD), the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA), and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's National Weather Service (NOAA/NWS). An assessment of ASOS was made by the FAA and is available online at http://www.faa.gov/ats/ars/Directorates/ARW/Eval–TOC.htm. The Air Force Operational Test and Evaluation Center conducted a review of the ASOS visibility and sky condition sensors which, is available online at http://www.faa.gov/ats/ars/Directorates/ARW/AFOTEC.htm
The North American Observing System (NAOS) is an international body with representatives from the United States, Canada, and Mexico. NAGS looks at current and developmental observation and monitoring systems to assess the best overall approach for the North American continent. The NAOS website, which contains information on the program and their activities, is at http://is1715.nws.noaa.gov/naos/. In 1999, the National Centers for Environmental Prediction conducted a study of the ramifications on weather forecasting if select observations are not made available in order to help determine their real value to the forecast process. The study is available at http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/projects/naos/naos.html
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The U.S. Weather Research Program, online at http://www.mmm.ucar.edu/uswrp/, is a cross-line office effort that conducts ongoing studies aimed at understanding the value of using resources to gather specific observations, critical locations and times, along with other adaptive systems, such as hurricane hunters.
Note: Also attached are hard copies of each website. See Appendix 2.
IMPROVEMENTS TO U.S. GLOBAL CHANGE RESEARCH PROGRAM
QUESTION:&Nbsp;What specific recommendations would you make to improve the US Global Change Research Program?
ANSWER: The agencies involved in the U.S. Global Change Research Program (USGCRP) have not yet identified agreed upon improvements to the program, but there are several options that could be considered. Interagency management of the USGCRP is one area for possible improvement. Each agency's responsibilities in the implementation of the USGCRP need to be more sharply defined and a scheme to verify that each agency is successfully living up to these responsibilities needs to be developed. Interagency management could provide a more centrally organized process for deciding how to prioritize spending by all of the agencies. Some of these management needs can be achieved by empowering the Subcommittee on Global Change Research, OSTP, and OMB to work together aggressively on constructively implementing the Program. In the short run, increased use of joint Requests for Proposals across multiple agencies is an immediate way of focusing resources on particular problems of common interest.
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With regard to particular activities, the USGCRP can improve by focusing on providing decision support products to assist in policy decisions involving climate variability and change. One such class of products is the generation of climate projections on a systematic, operational basis in conjunction with the research community, rather than on an episodic basis produced solely by the research community. This routine use of climate models could enable different man-made and natural emissions scenarios to be applied to our best understanding of the climate system to produce a range of possible outcomes. Another improvement for USGCRP could be the direction of more effort towards the regional concerns of climate variability and change, in such areas as water resource management, agriculture and energy.
COMPUTER CAPABILITIES OF WEATHER SERVICE
QUESTION:&Nbsp;At an earlier hearing, Rep. Grucci mentioned problems with local weather forecasting offices not having enough computer capabilities to run the latest Advanced Weather Interactive Processing System (AWIPS) software. Could you elaborate on NOAA's effort to resolve this problem—and how pervasive it is? Is NOAA reexamining other new software builds to ensure that your computing capabilities will be able to run the current and future programs?
ANSWER: The National Weather Service recently completed a 10 year $4.5 billion modernization and associated field office restructuring. The Modernization included the procurement and installation of new technology systems including of new geostationary satellites, doppler radar systems (NEXRAD), automated surface observing systems (ASOS), weather supercomputers, and the powerful desktop workstations called the Advanced Weather Interactive Processing System (AWIPS). These technologies have enabled NWS forecasters to improve both the lead-time and accuracy of severe weather warnings and forecasts. However, the systems used in the Long Island New York Weather Forecasts Office, like most information technology systems, require a sustained level of technology infusion to avoid obsolescence and meet user requirements. This is especially true for desktop workstations and their operating systems. To address these issues, NWS has implemented a technology infusion program for its key technology systems, including NEXRAD, AWIPS, and ASOS. These technology infusion efforts are critical to sustain operations and enhancing weather services in the future.
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Specifically, the FY 2002 President's Budget includes a request of $16.3M for the PAC account for AWIPS technology infusion. This request will allow NWS to complete a major software advance (i.e., Build 5) for the AWIPS systems in FY 2002. AWIPS Build 5 technology will provide NWS field forecasters with critical warning decision support systems to monitor and prioritize severe weather systems, automated product generation to improve efficiency, and improved radar and satellite display imagery. Combined with NEXRAD technology infusion, AWIPS Build 5 will allow NWS forecasters to meet planned improvements in tornado warning lead times and accuracy for severe thunderstorm forecasts.
In addition, the National Weather Service is currently planning to upgrade its current network of AWIPS workstations to support future software improvements and meet evolving user requirements. One option under consideration is transitioning AWIPS to a Linux based architecture. The Linux based systems should provide significant improvements in hardware processing capacity. NWS is planning test the new Linux systems at 14 sites in FY 2001.
Finally, the NWS has requested a total of $8.3M for the NEXRAD Procurement, Acquisition, and Construction (PAC) account to improve the NEXRAD radar system. The request will allow NWS to complete critical hardware retrofits on over 90 NEXRAD radars systems in FY 2002. The retrofits will include replacement of the current NEXRAD processor and the product generator. The new hardware will improve the processing capacity of the radar, allowing NWS forecasters to utilize new forecasts techniques to improve the detection of tornados and accuracy of severe storm forecasts.
OCEAN EXPLORATION INITIATIVE COORDINATION
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QUESTION:&Nbsp;How does NOAA plan to work with other agencies on the Ocean Exploration initiative and what will be the coordinating mechanism? Do you think the National Oceanographic Partnership Program (NOPP) would be an appropriate mechanism, and should a portion of the funding go directly to NOPP?
ANSWER: NOAA is already working with other agencies and institutions to promote and conduct ocean exploration activities in this first year of operation. We accomplish this by good coordination and communication. The Office of Ocean Exploration, started by NOAA in 2001, is the first federal entity created for this purpose and exists to further this goal. Part of the role of the Office is to coordinate NOAA's efforts and finding in exploration, which includes coordination among academic institutions and other federal agencies. NOAA will identify appropriate projects to NOPP for consideration of cooperative funding.
GROWTH OF NOAA CONTRACTING
QUESTION:&Nbsp;''We are pleased that the budget request for NOAA includes a sizable increase for human capital. However, NOAA increasingly relies on contractors to perform many services. How has the contractor usage grown at NOAA over the past 10 years, for example what percentage of jobs are currently filled by contracted employees? Overall, how would you rate NOAA's reliance on contractors to perform mission-critical services in terms of efficiency and cost?''
ANSWER: Generally, it is known that there has been a steady, and in some cases increasing, reliance on contractor staff across NOAA's Line and Staff Offices to accomplish mission-critical activities. This is particularly true in the information technology (IT) arena. However, NOAA is not able to provide an agency-wide ten-year trend analysis on contractor positions versus full-time Government emloyees, because data has not been captured on individual contract employees. The focus, instead, has been on vendors and contracts, i.e., one contract may call for filling five or more positions, but this level of detail has not been tracked on a routine basis. As a result, it is even more difficult to determine specifics of exactly how many contractor employees are providing ''mission-critical'' services to NOAA.
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In terms of efficiency, it can be stated that, on the positive side, the usage of contract staff, though occasionally costly, affords greater flexibility, scalability and access to more diverse subject matter expertise. Utilizing contractor staff can also provide greater flexibilities for time-critical needs. The Government recruitment process can be a deterrent to meeting time-critical priorities where contracted services can be acquired under an existing service contract. On the negative side, in some cases, there is more turnover as contractor staff rotate in and out more frequently than in-house staff, and thus the agency loses continuity. This subsequently adds to costs as new contract staff repeat the learning curves associated with understanding the business processes and technical subject matter of the agency.
Efficiency and expertise demonstrated by contractor staff is very much like the efficiency and expertise of in-house staff: it varies from excellent to poor. However, poor performance of contractor staff is much more easily addressed.
In terms of cost-effectiveness, the analysis varies depending on the functional area being contracted. For example our experience shows that most IT services performed under contract were more expensive when compared to the use of in-house staff. This is a direct result of the differences in salaries for IT professionals in private industry as opposed to Government pay rates. However, as previously noted, this can be balanced against the rapid availability of specialized expertise.
The paragraphs below provide some specific, as well as anecdotal information from the NOAA Line Offices.
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National Marine Fisheries Service (NMFS)
Contract usage in the field of IT has grown in NMFS in the last decade as requirements have expanded, and recruitment and retention of IT professionals within the Federal service has become more difficult. Contract usage has increased not only in total quantity, but also as a percentage of IT work conducted. Due to the differential in IT salaries in the private sector and what is offered in Government, it has been difficult to compete for a share of the labor pool of the most highly talented individuals. Thus, contracting, particularly in the area of application development, has been on the rise. At the same time, Full Time Equivalent (FTE) levels in the GS-334 series have been relatively flat in the field and Headquarters, with the exception of the NMFS Chief Information Officer's Office, as a proportion of total workforce.
Ten years ago the NMFS contracted for approximately 40% of its IT services, while today it contracts for approximately 60% of those services.
National Ocean Service (NOS)
NOS has been using contract employees to support a number of functions over the past several years. These contract employees have provided important mission support in specialized areas such as IT, mapping, remote sensing, and other technical areas, where such staff are not readily available in-house.
Office of Marine and Aviation Operations (OMAO)
The major growth areas in contractor usage has been in outsourcing of ship support and contracting for NOAA ship and aircraft repair. The ship support outsourcing reported below includes all of NOAA and includes outsourcing for days-at-sea (DAS) and contracts for hydrographic data.
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NOAA outsourcing for ship support in FY 1990 was approximately $1.9 million for 650 DAS and the outsourcing for ship support included in the President's FY 2002 budget is over $36.0 million for over 3,500 DAS. Contractual services (which consists primarily of NOAA ship and aircraft maintenance) for OMAO was $12.5 million in FY 1990 and $18.5 million in FY 2000.
Office of Oceanic and Atmospheric Research (OAR)
OAR utilizes contract support extensively in performing mission-critical services. The majority of our contractor employees are in the IT community. OAR utilizes IT contractors for computer operations from network support to software development and maintenance and other automated data processing support. The remaining contractor employees in OAR are associated with administrative, budget, programmatic, engineering and scientific positions. The contractor employees perform a vital function that assists OAR in meeting it's mission-critical services.
OAR was unable to obtain accurate information for the requested 10 year analysis; therefore, a complete 5-year analysis is.provided to show the trend in numbers of FTEs that OAR has been contracting for:
FY 1997: 164
FY 1998: 162
FY 1999: 170
FY 2000: 182
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FY 2001: 169
National Weather Service (NWS)
For NWS, approximately 11% of activities are contracted. This represents 526 FTE of contract work. NWS has a total of about 4,800 FTE. Following is a sampling of the types of activities that are contracted for in NWS:
IT and science-related support
Hydrologic services support
Performance verification support
Technical support
Financial analysis
Data Buoy technical support
Radar operations center support
Configuration management support
Facilities engineering support
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Upper air observations
Surface observations
Satellite support
Visiting scientists
Forecaster training
Cooperative Institute support
Requirements and change management
Hydrologic operations support
Hydrologic development
ASOS product improvement
NOAA Weather Radio maintenance
Engineering support
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Radiosonde testing support
The cost per year of the 526 contractor FTE is $46,527,000. This represents a growth, in the past 10 years, from 341 contractor FTE at a cost of $31,329,000.
National Environmental Satellite, Data and Information Service (NESDIS)
NESDIS contractor workforce is almost 40% of the total. As of April 5, 2001, NESDIS employed 815 Federal employees. In addition to these 815 Federal employees, NESDIS utilizes 526 on-site contract employees to complete its total workforce of 1,341 positions. Not included in this figure is the additional contractor workforce employed by NASA in the design and construction of NOAA's satellites and remote sensing instruments. Based upon its long-term commitment to achieve the most efficient workforce structure, NESDIS does not have commercial FTE above its minimum core capacity that would be available for cost comparison or direct conversion.
NESDIS has tracked the conversion of Government FTEs to contractor FTEs since 1983. With minor increases in 1991, 1992, and 1993, there has been a steady decline in the number of Federal employees from approximately 1,300 to today's low of 815. This transition from Government performance to contractor performance shows that NESDIS has made the transition from a predominantly Federal workforce to one that relies significantly on its commercial contractors.
NESDIS was a very active participant during the Department's initial Productivity Improvement Program. During the period 1985 through 1989, NESDIS completed 8 A–76 reviews. The baseline for these 8 reviews was 459 FTE and annual operating costs of $16,397,327. NESDIS achieved annual savings of 209 FTE and $3,336,981.
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NESDIS also participated in the Department's implementation of the Workforce Reduction Act from 1992–1999, further reducing its Federal workforce and increasing its public-private sector partnerships in support of its satellite operations, data and information processing and distribution, and its data management and archiving activities.
NOAA Staff Offices
Like the Line Offices, the NOAA Staff Offices rely, in part, on contractor support to assist NOAA in the accomplishment of its mission. While most offices, like the NOAA Line Offices, utilize contractor employees to support IT initiatives within their functional areas, there is also contractor support provided in direct accomplishment of the Staff Offices functional responsibility. For example, there are a significant number of facilities support-type service contracts in existence across NOAA. Services such as building or grounds maintenance, plant operation, operation of copy centers, moving services, etc. are all provided on a contracted basis. Because of the commercial nature of many of these services, they have been contracted out for many years. There continues to be a relatively constant staffing level to fulfill these functional needs. In the Human Resources area, training services are contracted for to fulfill agency needs to train and develop its employees. Training such as Pre-Retirement Planning, Simplified Acquisitions, Supervisory training and workshops and IT training have been provided through contractors. Specific dollars and numbers of FTE were not readily available.
REPAIR AND MAINTENANCE BACKLOG
QUESTION:&Nbsp;NOAA has identified a project backlog of more than $50 million in maintenance and repair. NOAA is requesting $3.6 million for FY 02. How much of the backlog will this request address? Does NOAA have a long-range plan to address this backlog?
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ANSWER: The $54.7 million backlog of maintenance and repair projects in NOAA reflects the total as of the end of FY 2000. This backlog is calculated to grow to a total of $110 million by the year 2010, as a result of the deferral of current projects and discovery of new requirements as a comprehensive facilities assessment program unfolds.
Of the $3.6 million requested in FY 2002, we expect to apply $2.4 million to complete 5 of the remaining 306 projects in our current backlog.
A new long range plan is under development. Of the remaining $1.2 million in the FY 2002 request, a portion of the funds will support an enhanced facilities assessment program that will incorporate a full array of safety and condition evaluations, as well as improved scoping and estimating of future projects. This information will enable NOAA to develop a comprehensive and holistic long-range outyear plan aimed at returning its facilities to their optimum operating condition. NOAA already recognizes that continuing funding at the requested level ($3.6 million) will eliminate only 20% of the projected $110 million total by FY 2010. It is anticipated that NOAA will submit future requests for appropriate levels of resources necessary to more substantially reduce the backlog by the end of the decade.
PREPARED STATEMENT OF RICHARD E. HALLGREN
I appreciate the opportunity to provide personal thoughts on NOAA's FY 2002 Budget: Predicting Weather and Climate. I was particularly pleased with the title of the Hearing. Weather and Climate are two sides of the same coin. The common aspects—science, service, and especially observations—are far greater than the differences. However, over the last few years we have developed a bad habit of stressing the differences. Agriculture needs predictions on all time scales from minutes to seasons and longer if available to increase efficiency. So do the energy sector, the transportation industry, water resource managers and many, many other economic activities.
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The United States has more severe weather and flooding than any other nations and its climate is quite variable. We have experienced intense and widespread drought and flooding in the last few years. Hurricane Andrew caused 25 billion in damage in 1992. Flight delays cost the nation several billion dollars each year. Approximately 2 trillion dollars, 25% of the U.S. gross national product, is affected by weather and climate. So even with today's natural hazards and natural climate variability forecasts and warnings on all time scales are extremely important to the future of this country. And climate change could increase the impact and need.
The nation has made a major investment in developing weather and climate services and therefore enjoys today the best service of any nation in the world through the combined efforts of the public and private meteorological services. But in spite of the advances and the quality of today's services I believe the gap between capabilities and needs is widening.
As I read the NOAA 2002 budget request, I began to reflect back 30 years when NOAA was created. I was at that time NOAA's Associate Administrator for Environmental Monitoring and Prediction and was charged with developing policy and plans of the National Weather Service, the Environmental Data Service, the National Satellite Service and the Environmental Research Laboratories to improve warnings and forecast. We were attempting to develop plans for the World Weather Watch Global Observing System, for an Integrated Global Ocean Station System, for a Global Environmental Monitoring System, and for an advanced natural hazards warning system. All ideas were sound in concept but impractical because the necessary technology was not really available. We had just flown the first atmospheric temperature sounder on a polar orbiting satellite but the data simply were not useful in models due to contamination by clouds. We didn't have an operational geostationary satellite. We didn't have high quality radars. We thought 2400 bits per second was high-speed communication. The fastest computer was less than one million instructions per second. We had global numerical weather prediction models and the first climate model. But with the low speeds of the computers we were truly at the starting gate. We had no PCs, no workstations only teletypes and typewriters in the weather stations. What a difference as compared to today.
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Today, with new observing and processing systems in place along with the tremendous advances in our scientific understanding of the atmosphere and ocean the quality of the services available to the public and industries of the country has increased dramatically. NEXRAD, GOES, and AWIPS have improved substantially severe weather and flood warnings—the average lead time for a tornado warning is now 10 minutes in contrast to essentially an average of zero 10 years ago. An intensive research program, TOGA, combined with an array of buoys, satellite observations and coupled atmospheric/ocean models have led to scientifically based seasonal forecasts for the first time in history. Advanced numerical weather prediction models, high-speed computers and polar orbiting satellite observation have made our 4-day forecasts as accurate as the 2-day forecast of the 80s. I expect in the next decade the increase in the time range and accuracy of forecasts and warnings will be even more rapid than over the last decade provided we continue to make adequate investments in developing the science and technology and translating the advances into operation.
The proposed NOAA 2002 Budget for weather and climate services is a significant step forward in the continuing process of investing in improved services. The budget allocations are in my opinion very much in the right direction but clearly constrained by the overall budget allocation for NOAA. The request focuses heavily on improvements in the infrastructure and support for a number of basic core activities that have not received adequate funding in recent years. I know some will say they are not glamorous like new things. But I strongly support the increases for these activities. In addition the budget request has a few—fewer than really required—new initiatives which I believe are extremely important and of high priority.
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I applaud in every way I can the substantial budget allocation across NOAA for adjustments to base to cover pay increases and other increased operating costs. I can only recall one other occasion in my third of a century of preparing or following annual budgets for weather and climate services that the leader had the fortitude to provide full funding for this non glamorous but critical area. Too often we would start the year by describing at management meetings all of new challenging initiatives we planned to undertake with modest budget increases and then at the end of the session say ''Oh yes we didn't receive any adjustments to base so you will have to 'eat' them''. That is truly bad management. So I strongly encourage you to support the funding requested for this area.
In the area of climate data and information NOAA's budget supports a number of extremely important increases. The basic operation of the Environmental Data Centers has not received adequate funding for many years—in fact funding for this critical area has been inadequate since the beginning of NOAA. Yet it is one of the most important areas for the study of climate change and underpins the wide range of uses of climate data in many economic sectors. I strongly support the increase of approximately 6.5 million for processing the large increases in the volume of data especially from satellites and radars and the increase of 1.6 million for development and acquisition of storage and telecommunication systems entitled Comprehensive Large-Array Data Stewardship System. I also strongly support the proposed increase of 1.9 million to refurbish the cooperative observer network. This network operated by volunteers across the country has provided the data that defines the climate of the country and is essential for determining whether the climate is changing. It is also important to continue the development of climate and ocean reference stations. These stations provide highest quality data and therefore enhance the usefulness of the cooperative network data. We should also continue efforts to rescue data. I note that the funding for the Regional Climate Centers is not included in the budgets. They are part of the data system. We should face it and integrate their activities.
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The NWS field offices distributed across the country prepare forecasts and severe weather and flood warning and rely on several system—ASOS, NEXRAD, and AWIPS—in each of the offices as well as guidance information from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction. The budget provides for increased funding to replace sensors and enhance processing capability in the ASOS system. The programs already underway to incorporate new algorithms and processing capability in NEXRAD and to complete development of the planned capabilities of AWIPS are to be continued in FY 2002. These programs are extremely important and must be fully funded. It is disappointing to me that the budget allocation for NOAA did not permit an expansion of the Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Program that is funded at a minimal level of one million per year. I also would like to emphasize that the time has come to establish a substantial refreshment program for both NEXRAD and AWIPS. NEXRAD believe it or not is technology of the middle 80's and AWIPS is more or less technology of the middle 90's. We have opportunities to improve both systems such as phased array radar concepts. Development takes time. Implementation takes time. Let's not fall again into the mode of operating 20 to 30 year old systems.
The proposed budget for 2002 provides significant support for high-speed computers at the National Centers for Environmental Prediction and at the Geophysical Fluids Dynamic Laboratory in Princeton. How well we do in improving our numerical weather prediction and climate models depends on the quality of the scientists and the computational capacity available to use the models. It is important that these budget requests be fully supported. At the same time we must recognize that the upgrading of the computational capacity at these locations and at the Forecast Systems Laboratory in Boulder is a continuing process and in future budget cycles more support will be required. The request for a 1.7 million increase for the Environmental Modeling Center responsible for developing the operational models that provide forecast guidance to all NWS field offices and to the private meteorological services is extremely important and long overdue. It is also exciting to see that the budget provides a 2.2 million increase for the U.S. Weather Research Program. This effort will focus on improving the hurricane landfall and precipitation forecasts. It is a very well planned program involving several components of NOAA, DOD, NASA, and NSF as well as many universities. The 2002 budget requests 7.5 million to support acquisition and installation of equipment and infrastructure to ensure continuity of operations of the NWS telecommunication gateway. The gateway has no operational backup, which is simply an unacceptable situation.
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Fundamental to prediction of weather and climate are global observations of the atmosphere, ocean and the land surface. It is extremely exciting to see in the budget two major steps forward—the large increase in funding for NPOESS and the funding necessary for additional ARGO floats for observation of the ocean. We all remember the gaps we had in the operation of our geostationary satellites in the late 80's and early 90's. We are down to three of the current polar environmental satellites. It is time to move forward with NPOESS so that continuity can be assured for both DOD and NOAA. We all should take note of the cooperation that now exists between DOD, NASA, and NOAA. In the 70's and early 80's the cooperation on operational satellites between NOAA and NASA was superb and then it collapsed. Over the last few years this cooperation has increased very rapidly, thanks to the leadership in NESDIS and the Earth Science Directorate in NASA.
For the first time, we have the technology for a quality global ocean observing system. The ARGO system combined with satellite observation especially the altimetry of the ocean surface makes possible a giant step forward. The additional funding of 3.2 million is required to meet United States commitments to this international system. A number of nations are already installing ARGO floats and others are planning to join the program. At this time we have altimeters on experimental satellites but we must move forward with an operational altimeter. It is not in this budget. I hope it will be in the next one. Another critical area is long term climate monitoring. NASA is flying on a number of EOS satellites sensors that are essential for climate monitoring. It is important for the nation to translate some of these sensors to operational status.
The substantial increase of 15.7 million for the Environmental Observing Services that operate all of NOAA's satellite is essential. Each year the scope and complexity of the operations of NOAA's satellites increases. Larger amounts of data are being processed and number of products in support of the National Weather Service and other groups is increased each year. The funding for this area has not kept pace over the years and no matter how good the space-borne systems are they will be no better than the processing of the data on the ground.
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The most exciting new initiative in NOAA's 2002 Budget is the effort being proposed between NOAA and NASA to create a joint Data Assimilation Center. Through this effort the utility of all data—satellite and in-situ—in defining the Earth system will be increased. I strongly support the proposed increase of 3.8 million for this program. In addition the Global Ocean Data Assimilation Experiment is moving forward internationally within the framework of the Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission and the World Meteorological Organization. NOAA's budget proposal for 2002 includes a request for funding this important program that is very much in harmony with the joint center.
Although I had hoped that NOAA's budget request for predicting weather and climate would have been substantially larger, I believe the Administration has done a good job of supporting high priority programs including some fundamental activities that have been neglected and underfunded for a number of years. At the start, I said the gap between capabilities and needs continue to grow. Let me emphasize that today, energy spot prices shoot up by factors of ten whenever we fail to accurately forecast heating and cooling demand. Recent hurricanes have put millions of evacuees on the road, not just thousands. Winter storm airport closures create air traffic problems nationwide. We have to do a better job of seeing and coping with these problems. And better predictions will help.
Finally I want to say that predictions of weather and climate are vital to coping with climate change not only for determining the magnitude of potential changes in climate but also for adapting to the change. Making wise decisions in many sectors of our economy—agriculture, energy, water resources, transportation and many others—based on short and long range predictions will be one of the key elements in coping with whatever climate change is in our future.
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Thank you for asking me to provide my views on NOAA's 2002 Budget.
BIOGRAPHY FOR RICHARD E. HALLGREN
Dr. Richard Hallgren is Executive Director Emeritus of the American Meteorological Society (AMS). He served as Executive Director of AMS from May 1988 to January 1999. The AMS is a non-profit scientific and professional organization with a membership of over 10,000, representing the university, governmental and private sectors of the atmospheric, oceanographic and related sciences.
Prior to becoming Executive Director of AMS, Dr. Hallgren served as Director of the National Weather Service of the United States from February 1979 to May 1988. The National Weather Service is responsible for providing weather and flood warnings and forecasts for the United States and its coastal and offshore waters. Dr. Hallgren led the planning during this period of the modernization and restructuring of the National Weather Service.
Dr. Hallgren graduated from Pennsylvania State University in 1953 with a Bachelor of Science degree in Meteorology. After serving as an Air Force weather forecaster he returned to Pennsylvania State University and earned a Ph.D. in meteorology with a minor in physics in January 1960. He was named an Alumni Fellow by the University in 1987, and received an honorary Doctor of Science degree from the State University of New York in 1990.
In 1960, Dr. Hallgren joined IBM Corporation as an operations research analyst and systems engineer. He was involved in the development of airborne computer systems for the Department of Defense, scientific satellite systems, and large-scale processing systems for environmental programs. In 1963, he was appointed manager of IBM Environmental Systems Department.
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In November 1964, Dr. Hallgren was appointed Scientific Advisor to the Department of Commerce Assistant Secretary for Science and Technology. He served as advisor for the scientific and technological programs of the U.S. Weather Bureau, Coast and Geodetic Survey, and the Central Radio Propagation Laboratory. In February 1966, he became the first Director of the Office of World Weather Systems within the Environmental Science Services Administration (ESSA), focussing on the World Weather Watch (WWW), the Global Atmospheric Research Project (GARP) and the Integrated Global Ocean Service System (IGOSS). From July 1969 to October 1971, he was Assistant Administrator for Environmental Systems in ESSA and NOAA, and responsible for in addition to WWW, GARP and IGOSS the development of meteorological and oceanographic data acquisition and processing systems and for the management of the National Data Buoy Office, the Marine Minerals Technology Center, the National Oceanographic Instrumentation Center, and the National Undersea Program.
In 1971, Dr. Hallgren was appointed by the President as Associate Administrator of Environmental Monitoring and Prediction in NOAA. In this position he was responsible for policy and planning for all of the activities of the National Weather Service, National Environmental Satellite Service, Environmental Data Service, and the related research programs of the Environmental Research Laboratories of NOAA. During this period, he continued to lead the U.S. program on the International Field Year for the Great Lakes, WWW, GARP, and IGOSS. In 1973, Dr. Hallgren requested assignment as the Deputy Director of the National Weather Service in order to personally participate in the transition of advanced technology planning done at NOAA Headquarters into operational systems at Weather Service Field offices. He directed programs involving automatic weather stations, advanced radar systems, large-scale data processing systems, and the automation of operations and services.
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From October 1977 to February 1979, Dr. Hallgren served as Assistant Administrator for Oceanic and Atmospheric Services. He was responsible for establishing a new level of management within NOAA which brought together the services provided by the Environmental Data and Information Service, the National Environmental Satellite Service, the National Ocean Survey, and the National Weather Service. He served as Federal Coordinator for Meteorological Services and Supporting Research from 1971 to 1973 and from 1977 to 1979.
Dr. Hallgren received the Arthur S. Fleming Award in 1968 as one of the ten outstanding men in the Federal Government for his leadership nationally and internationally of the World Weather Watch and the Global Atmospheric Research Program. He was a Department of Commerce Gold Medal award winner in 1969 for the direction of the Barbados Oceanographic and Meteorological Experiment. In 1979, he received a special award from the Administrator of NOAA for outstanding management of NOAA's Oceanic and Atmospheric service programs. In 1980 he received the Presidential Rank Award of Meritorious Executive and in 1986 The Presidential Rank Award of Distinguished Executive. In 1986 he received the Charles Franklin Brooks Award by the American Meteorological Society. In 1990 he received the International Meteorological Organization Prize from the World Meteorological Organization.
Dr. Hallgren was elected and served as President of the American Meteorological Society in 1982. He served as Permanent Representative of the United States to the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) and a member of the Executive Committee of the WMO from 1981 to 1988. He led many delegations to the meetings of the WMO and the Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission. He was appointed in May 1988, by the Secretary General of the United Nations to the Planning Committee for the International Decade for Natural Hazard Reduction and served from 1989–1991 as Chairman of the National Academy of Sciences National Committee for Natural Disaster Reduction. He has served as a member of several National Research Council's Committees such as the Space Studies Board, the Global Change Research Committee, the Earth Studies Committee, the Earth Observation System Data Information System Panel and the Committee for Transborder Flow of Scientific Data. He served on he Board of Trustees of the University Corporation for Atmospheric Research and of the Board of Directors of the Renewable Natural Resources Foundation. He is presently serving on the Department of Energy Biological and Environmental Research Advisory Committee, the National Research Council Climate Research Committee and as a review editor for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.
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Dr. Hallgren has authored papers on environmental data acquisition and automatic data processing systems, cloud physics, and atmospheric electricity. He is a Fellow of the American Meteorological Society and the American Association for the Advancement of Science, and a member of The Oceanographic Society and the American Geophysical Union.
Dr. Hallgren was born in Pennsylvania on March 15, 1932, and is married to the former Maxine Anderson. They have three children.
73332v.eps
PREPARED STATEMENT OF ERIC BARRON
CLIMATE SCIENCE AND SERVICE CHALLENGES FOR THE NATIONAL OCEANIC AND ATMOSPHERIC ADMINISTRATION
Introduction
Mr Chairman, I am Eric Barron, Distinguished Professor of Geosciences at the Pennsylvania State University, and the Chair of the National Research Council's Board on Atmospheric Sciences and Climate. The Research Council is the operating arm of the National Academy of Sciences, National Academy of Engineering, and the Institute of Medicine, chartered by Congress in 1863 to advise the government on matters of science and technology. Thank you for this opportunity to discuss with you certain issues relating to the climate programs of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.
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Climate is an increasingly important element of public and private decision-making. The breadth of these climate-related decisions is becoming truly remarkable, including such diverse areas as farming, forestry, energy production, water resource management, emergency management planning, development of building codes, building design criteria, insurance, retail marketing, and international treaty negotiation.
Basically, advances in our capability to monitor and predict variations in climate, coupled with concern over the potential for climate change and its impact, are yielding a growing awareness of the importance of climate information. We no longer view this climate information as simply the average of a large set of weather records. Instead, we are realizing that climate observations and models are yielding a growing understanding of how climate varies and how it may change in the future. We are realizing an increased capability to predict short-term climate variations such as El Niño. Our ability to project long-term decadal to century scale change has improved dramatically over the last two decades. Predictive capability, as long as it contains reasonable estimates of uncertainty, is powerful. It enables us to enhance our economic vitality. It becomes a key ingredient in environmental stewardship. It is also critical in our ability to limit threats to life and property. In short, it allows us to promote economic well-being and to solve problems.
There are three fundamental elements to a NOAA climate program, and a U.S. climate program in general: (1) a robust observing system, (2) a strong modeling prediction/projection capability, and (3) a strong link to the needs of the decision-makers. For each of these three elements, we can examine key requirements, assess the current status of our efforts, and describe a set of investments required for a more successful U.S. program. In each case, my recommendations find their foundation in National Research Council Reports of the National Academy of Sciences, and other national efforts to assess the importance of climate and its impacts on our nation. This review and assessment is followed by a vision of how U.S. and international programs may evolve over the next decade or two. Our vision of future needs and capabilities provides a guide for the investments in NOAA that will enable this agency to better serve our nation.
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(1) A Robust Observing System
The objective of a climate observing system is to provide information on trends and variability and is the basis for testing and improving upon our knowledge of how the climate system functions. In other words, the climate observing system provides the foundation upon which to build our predictive capability. The research community and every sector of climate-related decision-makers, from the weather derivatives industry to those assessing the potential impacts of future climate change, calls for a stable, sustained, high quality observational base to the U.S. climate program.
NOAA clearly recognizes this important need. The operational environmental satellite systems operated by NOAA are of considerable importance to the climate community because we recognize that the NASA mission plans can not fulfill all of the long-term observational needs. NASA and NOAA have proposed a National Polar Orbiting Operational Environmental Satellite System (NPOESS) Preparatory Project (NPP) that serves to bridge NASA's Earth Observing System and operational satellites. It is a promising sign of a potential mechanism for maintaining much-needed continuity to our measurements while providing a mechanism for development and testing of new technology. At the same time, NOAA provides a surface observing network that has become central to our understanding of climate variability and change. Many of these observations are combined with forecast models through an assimilation process that yields the de facto record of global weather and climate. NOAA's Environmental Modeling Center (EMC) has made great strides in improving the U.S. efforts in this arena. Recent efforts to establish a development, testing, and integration facility at EMC that allows new techniques of prediction and assimilation to be examined while maintaining current operational forecasts is a major step forward in NOAA capabilities.
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Yet, the climate community continues to place a more robust observing system at the top of its list as an area of needed improvement. There are two keys to understanding this fact. First, most of the information about the climate system is derived from observations taken for purposes other than climate. Often this means that the data collection and management requirements for climate are a part of a secondary, and less well supported, mission. Second, the observations required in order to understand variability and change on our planet involve numerous federal and state agencies and an array of satellite and ground-based systems. The lack of integration of these systems creates vulnerabilities and limits our ability to produce an observing system of real utility to both science and society. There are four immediate needs:
(A) The climate community has articulated a series of basic properties required of a climate observing system (NRC, 1999) involving overlapping measurements, documentation, data quality and homogeneity, data maintenance, free and open exchange of data, links between operational providers and users, and assessing any changes in observing systems in terms of its effects on climate time-series. The climate community frequently refers to these basic properties as the ''ten commandments'' of a climate observing system. The investment required to adhere to these rules is often small and will reap many benefits.
(B) We must ensure that the NPOESS strategy has a clear and credible plan for archiving observations and for managing data access. We also need to explore the integration of NOAA and NASA data management and access.
(C) We need to plan and implement sustained and integrated observing and information systems that cross traditional agency boundaries. This is critical to the entire endeavor and requires a much greater interagency cooperation. There are several elements to this recommendation. We need a real inventory of current observing systems including their purpose, connection to users, management, and decision-making rules. We actually need the resources to create a more cost-effective and cost-efficient observing system. The inventory of capabilities is a first step. Examining redundancies and potential synergisms between agencies is a step towards a more efficient system if the potential savings can be utilized to fill gaps and weaknesses and to create a more integrated framework. Budget constraints combined with the number of agencies involved have resulted in haphazard changes to our nation's observing systems to the detriment of our understanding of climate. Instead, we should take the view that we need to make a short-term investment by supporting the research and analysis needed to create a more efficient, integrated system. This requires a collaborative process combining the scientific community, operational agencies and decision-makers with the objective of creating an integrated system.
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(D) The greatest weaknesses in our global observing strategy involve the water cycle—specifically a commitment to sustained measurement of precipitation, atmospheric moisture, soil moisture and run-off.
(2) A Strong Modeling Prediction/Projection Capability
The development of predictive models in the U.S. is fueled by a world-class research enterprise. NOAA's Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, and facilities and capabilities supported by NASA, DOE and NSF, have created a powerful capability to build predictive tools that will increasingly serve the climate needs of our nation. There is a growing demand for the products associated with this model development. Primarily this demand reflects our increased ability to provide short-term predictions of phenomena such as El Niño and to provide projections on the time scales of decades to a century. Whether it is the strawberry farmer in California, U.S. utilities achieving lower costs by beating competitors in world energy markets, or the U.S. Navy determining whether we need fleet capability in a seasonally ice-free Arctic Ocean, the demand for advanced knowledge about climate is growing.
Unfortunately, the U.S. research engine is not prepared for the heavy demand of producing a wide variety of products for the breadth and diversity of decision-makers who are utilizing climate information. This problem is brought to high relief when we examine the U.S. role in various assessments such as the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change and the U.S. National Assessment of Climate Change Impacts. U.S. efforts are a foundation of the intellectual exercise but we play a much smaller role in providing the long-term ensemble of simulations that are used to assess potential impacts. Every sign suggests that the demand for specialized or for computer intensive products is growing. These concerns have led the National Research Council to focus on the capacity of U.S. modeling to support climate assessment activities (1998) and on improving the effectiveness of the U.S. climate modeling (2001). Similarly, the U.S. National Assessment of Climate Change Impacts (2000) includes this topic as a major issue under future research requirements.
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The findings are of particular importance. The increased demands for operational climate products that benefit society have placed heavy demands on the research community. When comparing U.S. and European high-end modeling, the U.S. modeling community is lagging behind in producing accurate high-resolution model simulations. These simulations are in greater demand because they enable a stronger linkage between climate and regional problem solving. The U.S. community is being hindered by our inability to purchase the best computer architectures available. In fact, many view the U.S. community as being forced to purchase architectures that are ill-suited to the problems at hand because of the lack of openness of the current market for computer hardware. The U.S. also needs a common modeling infrastructure to promote greater efficiencies within the U.S. research community. We are also acutely feeling the strain on human resources, particularly in competing with private industry and overseas enterprises for skilled computer scientists.
There are four immediate needs:
(A) We need an investment in facilities that are specifically charged to satisfy the increased demand for operational modeling products. This investment must address both short-term predictive capabilities on the time scale of months to years and longer term variability and change on time scales of decades to a century. These facilities require sufficient computational and staff resources to provide high-resolution model predictions and projections that are competitive internationally. These facilities must have the resources to develop, test, and integrate new developments, perform long-term model runs and ensembles of simulations, create permanent model and model output archives, promote strong links with researchers through active visitor programs, and facilitate access to model results. A strong connection to decision-makers is essential.
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(B) The U.S. community needs open access to the best available computational resources.
(C) The U.S. needs to work toward a common modeling infrastructure that promotes interaction and links the strong research communities in the nation in an effort to facilitate the transition from research to useful operational products.
(D) The federally supported modeling endeavors must recognize and be able to address the issue of competitiveness in hiring the scientific and computational staff needed to staff U.S. modeling centers.
(3) A strong link to the needs of the decision-makers
The value of a robust observing system and a strong modeling capability is not realized unless it is driven by societal needs. This requires climate services that produce timely and useful climate information to decision-makers (NRC, 1999b). A successful climate service must be user-centric and it must be supported by active research. The growing demand for climate products indicates that this service should include the observations themselves as well as predictive capability at a variety of space and time scales, from seasons to a century and from global scales to regions or states. Active stewardship is critical to maintain this knowledge base.
NOAA efforts are evolving into a climate services framework through the valuable efforts of the National Climate Data Center, the results of the National Climate Program Act of 1978 that created a network of regional climate centers, and a fledgling climate service enterprise. In addition, some states, notably Oklahoma with its ''Oklahoma Mesonet'' have created enterprises that develop and promote powerful and useful climate and weather products that serve a variety of public and private needs within the state.
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The demand for climate services is growing and we must anticipate that these services will expand into a variety of climate-related areas including human health, water availability and quality, air quality, agricultural forecasting, and the stewardship of ecosystems. For this reason, our nation should enhance its efforts to provide climate services and to realize the full potential generated by the U.S. research community. Logically, this enhancement of the climate service function should build upon existing enterprises. Insights into the first steps toward a greater emphasis on climate services stems from NRC reports that promote the transition from research to operations (NRC, 2000) and public debate on the role of climate services. The first steps might include the following elements:
(A) A truly useful service function depends on having mechanisms within agencies that promotes and addresses the needs of the users. Agencies like NOAA need to have clearly defined offices with this task as a primary goal and the resources to implement this mission.
(B) Our ability to assess the potential demand by users is limited. We need to empower NOAA to perform user-oriented experiments designed to promote and assess the needs of decision-makers.
(C) We have a number of real success stories in terms of promoting a strong interface with the public and private sector, such as the Oklahoma Mesonet. In many ways, such state enterprises have enormous potential to link local weather and climate to local and state needs. However, as a group of independent entities, state efforts will only exacerbate the problems associated with having an observing system that is dependent on so many different agencies. We need to provide incentives to repeat the success of the Oklahoma effort but in exchange for open and free access to information and for following the primary guidelines required to ensure that observations are useful for climate studies (described earlier as the ''10 commandments'' of climate observations).
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(D) We can not provide the best service to the nation without creating functions within the agencies with the direct responsibility of translating research accomplishment into new observation and predictive capabilities. Ideally, this function should be defined at the outset of new observation systems and as an integral part of the modeling and prediction enterprises described above.
In addition, it should be emphasized that a climate services function is dependent on several elements that have already been discussed earlier, including creating an inventory of existing observing systems in an effort to promote efficiency, eliminating gaps and weaknesses in our current strategy, promoting greater interagency cooperation in developing a robust observing system, enhancing our ability to provide short-term and long term climate predictions and projections, and providing the computational resources to serve the needs of decision-makers.
(4) A Vision For The Future—The Equivalent Of An ''Environmental Intel Center''
A continuing theme of this testimony is science in service to society. As stated earlier, the nature of the environmental issues facing our nation demand a capability that allows us to enhance economic vitality, maintain environmental quality, limit threats to life and property, as well as strengthen fundamental understanding of the Earth. These societal needs lead to a vision that uses a regional framework as a stepping-stone to a comprehensive national or global capability. The development of a comprehensive regional framework can be developed by creating a series of ''natural laboratories.'' Initially, the nation could proceed with a series of pilot studies. To be successful, these regional laboratories must have five key elements:
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(1) An integrated regional web of sensors, including physical, chemical, biological, and socioeconomic factors, that link existing observations into a coherent framework and enable new observations to be developed within an overall structure;
(2) An integrated and comprehensive regional information system, accessible to a wide variety of researchers, operational systems, and stakeholders;
(3) Directed process studies designed to examine specific phenomena through field study to address deficiencies in understanding;
(4) A regional modeling foundation for constructing increasingly complex coupled system models at the spatial and temporal scales appropriate for the examination of specific and integrated biologic, hydrologic and socioeconomic systems;
(5) A strong user-centric function.
These five steps mirror the requirements described above for a viable and useful climate research program for the nation. It is different in two ways. First, it anticipates that the needs of the nation expand beyond climate into the broader context of environmental prediction. Second, if focuses on regional capabilities as a stepping stone to a national capability.
The above structure is inherently a hybrid between research and operational functions. Both benefit from the level of integration of observations and information, the targeted process studies, and the model development capability. An emphasis on a region-specific predictive capability will drive the development of new understanding and new suites of comprehensive interactive high-resolution models that focus on addressing societal needs. A key objective is to bring a demanding level of discipline to ''forecasting'' in a broad arena of environmental issues. Common objectives and an integrated framework will also engender new modes and avenues of research and catalyze the development of useful operational products. With demonstrated success, the concepts of integrated regional observation and information networks, combined with comprehensive models, will grow into a national capability that far exceeds current capabilities. Such a capability is designed to address a broad range of current and future, regional and global environmental issues. The justification for this vision follows:
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The Nature of the Problem: The driving forces that alter environmental quality and integrity are widely recognized, involving primarily weather and climate, patterns of land use and land cover, and resource use with its associated waste products. But a key feature of most regions is that more than one driving force is changing simultaneously. Consequently, most locations are characterized by multiple stresses. The effect of a combination of environmental stresses is seldom simply additive. Rather, they often produce amplified or damped responses, unexpected responses, or threshold responses in environmental systems. Multiple, cumulative, and interactive stresses are clearly the most difficult to understand and hence the most difficult to manage. The lack of an ability to assess the response of the system to multiple stresses limits our ability to assess the impacts of specific human perturbations, to assess advantages and risks, and to enhance economic and societal well being in the context of global, national and regional stewardship.
Finally, many of the current environmental issues are expected to become more acute as we attempt to meet the needs of an increasingly complex and much larger, although stabilizing, population.
The Primary Needs to Serve Society: Economic vitality and societal well-being are increasingly dependent on combining global, regional and local perspectives. A ''place-based'' imperative for environmental research stems from the importance of human activities on local and regional scales, the importance of multiple stresses on specific environments, and the nature of the spatial and temporal linkages between physical, biological, chemical and human systems. We find the strongest intersection between human activity, environmental stresses, earth system interactions and human decision-making in regional analysis coupled to larger spatial scales.
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Addressing Societal Needs: A decade of research on greenhouse gas emissions, ozone depletion and deforestation has clarified the promising pathways for research on global environmental change. Much of this strategy should and must focus on critical unanswered questions. However, the last decade of effort has also revealed a number of challenges, most notably the challenge of creating integrated global (much less national) observation capabilities, the computational and scientific limitations inherent in creating a truly integrated, global, coupled system modeling capability suitable for assessing impacts, and the challenge of addressing multiple stresses in a coupled system. These limitations and the need to directly focus on societal needs argue for an additional strategy that enables the development of comprehensive regional ''natural laboratories.'' Five elements are key to the success of this regional framework:
(1) A Web of Integrated Sensors. The current U.S. observation strategy appears to be even more haphazard than climate observations when viewed in the overall context of environmental problems. The reason is clear. The observations are driven by very different mission needs and tend to focus on the measurement of discrete variables at a specific set of locations designed to serve the different needs of weather forecasting, pollution monitoring, hydrologic forecasting, or other objectives. The mission focus results in a diverse set of networks that are supported by a large number of different federal agencies, states, or regional governments. Increased awareness of a host of environmental issues drives demand for additional new observations. However, these new observations are frequently viewed independently of any overall structure or integrated observing strategy. Operational needs and research or long-term monitoring needs are also often independent. Importantly, regular and consistently repeated observations present added challenges in garnering sufficient financial resources. The end result is almost certainly fiscally inefficient, and undoubtedly limits our ability to integrate physical, biological, chemical and human systems.
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The limitations of the current observing strategy are widely recognized and they have spurred efforts to develop Global Observing Systems for global change, climate, and oceanic and terrestrial systems in the international arena. These efforts are commendable and must be encouraged, but they are also extremely challenging because of the breadth of measurements, nations, capability and policies that are involved.
In contrast, at a regional level in the U.S. we have the potential to (a) link observing systems into a web of integrated sensors building upon existing weather and hydrologic stations and remote sensing capability, (b) create the agreements across a set of more limited agencies and federal, state and local governments needed to create a structure to the observing system, (c) provide a compelling framework that encourages or demands the integration of new observations into a broader strategy, and (d) create strong linkages between research and operational observations that result in mutual benefit. The result is likely to create new efficiencies through the development of measurement systems that are more comprehensive, rather than a suite of separately funded, disconnected systems. The result is also likely to result in greater scientific benefit to society and greater understanding due to the co-location or networking of many different measurement capabilities. The demonstration of fiscal efficiency and improved capability and resulting benefit are likely to create a significant additional impetus for developing national and global integrated observing systems.
(2) Regional Information Systems. Society has amassed an enormous amount of data about the earth. New satellite systems and other observational capabilities promise enormous increases in the availability of earth data. Fortunately, technological innovations are allowing us to capture, process and display this information in a manner that is multi-resolution, and 4-dimensional. The major challenges involve data management, the storage, indexing, referencing, and retrieving of data and the ability to combine, dissect and query information. The ability to navigate this information, seeking data that satisfies the direct needs of a variety of users, is likely to spark a new ''age of information'' that will promote economic benefit and engender new research directions and capabilities to integrate physical, biological, chemical and human systems.
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The efforts to create comprehensive information systems increasingly reflect federal and state mandates to make data more accessible and useful to the public and to ensure that our investments in research yield maximum societal benefit. The development of a global digital database is again an enormous challenge. In contrast, a regional or state focus becomes a logical test bed, enabling the participation of universities, federal, state and local governments, and industry in the development of a regional information system that is tractable and for which immediate benefit for a state or region can be evident. Again, the demonstration of capability and resulting benefit are likely to create a significant additional impetus for developing national and global information systems.
(3) Framework for Process Studies. Process studies are a critical element of scientific advancement because they are designed, through focused observations and modeling, to probe uncertainties in knowledge about how the Earth system functions. In many cases, mismatch between model predictions and observations can drive targeted investigations to limit the level of error. Frequently, efforts to couple different aspects of the Earth system (e.g., the atmosphere and land-surface vegetation characteristics) prompt targeted exploration because the level of understanding is still rudimentary. The objective is to use field study to address deficiencies in our understanding. The benefit of these intensive studies is maximized when they can be coupled with a highly developed, integrated set of sensors, with readily accessible spatial and temporal data within a regional information system, and with a predictive model framework that readily enables the entrainment and testing of new information from process studies.
(4) Predictive Capability. The demand for new forecasting products, involving air quality, energy demand, water quality and quantity, ultraviolet radiation, and human health indexes is also growing rapidly, and as we demonstrate feasibility and benefit, society is likely to demand a growing number of new operational forecast products on prediction time scales of days to decades into the future. Further, we already clearly sense that environmental issues will demand an even greater capability to integrate physical, biological, chemical and human systems in order to develop the predictive capability needed to examine the response of critical regions or cases to multiple stresses.
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Global weather and climate models provide the strongest physical foundation for more comprehensive environmental predictive capability. The numerical models that underpin this type of forecasts are increasingly becoming the framework for the addition of new numerical formulations designed to predict air quality, the water balance for river forecast models, and a host of other variables including the migration of forests under climate change conditions. As we attempt to produce predictions at the scale of human endeavors, mesoscale models (capable of predicting synoptic weather systems) are increasingly becoming the focal point of weather and climate studies because of their potential to make predictions on the scale of river systems, cities, agriculture and forestry.
Enormous potential exists if we can institutionalize a mesoscale numerical prediction capability that meshes with regional sensor webs and information systems. Such a capability enables a strategy and implementation capability for building tractable coupled models, initiating experimental forecasts of new variables, assessing the outcomes associated with multiple stresses, and of taking advantage of the discipline of the forecasting process to create a powerful regional prediction capability. This capability, built upon the numerical framework of weather and climate models, can be extended to air quality, water quantity and quality, ecosystem health, human health, agriculture, and a host of other areas.
It is time to bring a demanding level of discipline to the forecasting of a wide variety of environmental variables. The objective is to stimulate the interplay between improvements in observation, theory and practice needed to develop capabilities of broad value to society. The discipline of forecasting is dependent of four steps (a) collection and analysis of observations of present conditions, (b) use of subjective or quantitative methods to infer future conditions, (c) assessment of the accuracy of the prediction with observations, and (d) analysis of the results to determine how methods and models can be improved.
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At a minimum, we are capable of bringing a much greater level of structure and discipline into our predictions of the future, ranging from specific forecasts to statistical ensembles that include a measure of expected accuracy, to an assessment of the range of possibilities.
(5) A strong connection to societal needs. As stated earlier, we find the strongest intersection between human activity, environmental stresses, earth system interactions and human decision-making in regional analysis coupled to larger spatial scales. A regional laboratory enables and promotes a focus on problem-solving. Many of the functions of a user-centric climate services would now have a more direct linkage to decision-makers.
The regional vision described above is designed to address a broad range of current and future environmental issues by creating a capability based on integrated observing systems, readily accessible data, and an increasingly comprehensive predictive capability. With demonstrated success over a few large-scale regions of the U.S., this strategy will very likely grow into a national capability that far exceeds current capabilities. NOAA can play a key role in creating these capabilities.
Thank you again for the opportunity to speak this morning. I will be glad to answer any questions.
References supporting the above testimony:
1998. National Research Council. Global Environmental Change: Research Pathways for the Next Decade.
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1998. National Research Council. Capacity of U.S. Climate Modeling to Support Climate Change Assessment Activities.
1998. National Research Council. The Atmospheric Sciences Entering the Twenty-First Century.
1999. National Research Council. Adequacy of Climate Observing Systems.
1999b. National Research Council. Making Climate Forecasts Matter.
2000. National Research Council. From Research to Operations in Weather Satellites and Numerical Weather Prediction.
2000. National Research Council. Grand Challenges in Environmental Sciences.
2000. Climate Change Impacts on the United States: The Potential Consequences of Climate Variability and Change. U.S. National Assessment Synthesis Team.
2001. National Research Council. Improving the Effectiveness of U.S. Climate Modeling.
2001. National Research Council. The Science of Regional and Global Change.
BIOGRAPHY FOR ERIC J. BARRON
Distinguished Professor of Geosciences and Director, EMS Environment Institute, 2217 Earth Engineering Sciences Building, Penn State University, University Park, PA 16802; Phone: 814–865–1619; Fax: 814–865–3191; E-mail: eric@essc.psu.edu
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Eric Barron received his Bachelor's degree in Geology from Florida State University in 1973. He then began the study of oceanography and climate at the Rosenstiel School of Marine and Atmospheric Sciences at the University of Miami, receiving his Master's degree in 1976 and his Ph.D. in 1980. His career in climate modeling was initiated with a supercomputing fellowship at the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) in 1976. In 1980 he accepted a postdoctoral fellowship at NCAR in Boulder, Colorado; in 1981 he joined the staff in the Climate Section at NCAR. In 1985 he returned to the University of Miami as an Associate Professor. In 1986 he became a member of the Pennsylvania State University faculty as Director of the Earth System Science Center and an Associate Professor of Geosciences. Currently he is the Director of the EMS Environment Institute, home of the Earth System Science Center, and he is Distinguished Professor of Geosciences. He has been an active member of the Advisory boards for Earth Sciences in NASA and NSF, including five years as Chair of the Science Executive Committee of NASA's Earth Observing System. He is past chair of the Climate Research Committee of the National Research Council and is currently chair of the Board on Atmospheric Sciences and Climate of the National Research Council. Areas of specialization include, global change, numerical models of the climate system, and study of climate change throughout Earth history.
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ANSWERS TO POST-HEARING QUESTIONS
Question 1. You mentioned in your written testimony the importance of developing a regional network to address climate change issues. NOAA has a regional network of six climate change centers with university affiliates. Could these centers be the foundation of the network that you propose?
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NOAA's regional network of climate change centers provide a number of important climate ''services.'' These enterprises focus on the application of climate information for regional issues facing a wide variety of decision-makers. They emphasize evaluation of data, archiving, indexing, retrieval, quality assessment, synthesis, interpretation and dissemination of information. There central focus is the user. For this reason, they provide an important and valuable role. This role could certainly expand to become a significant part of a foundation for a regional network. The regional ''intel'' centers that I mentioned, if they are to be truly valuable should include observations, data and information management, modeling and prediction and a strong connection to users. Below I provide a relatively detailed vision for such an enterprise. My view is that these regional enterprises can build upon several current facilities and capabilities, but their organization and development should be a part of a peer-reviewed competitive process, perhaps involving state funding, federal funding, and partnerships with existing facilities (as an aside, the National Research Council, Board on Atmospheric Sciences and Climate, is currently near completion of a report on ''Climate Services'' that includes discussion about the NOAA regional network of six climate change centers. The Committee may wish to request an advance—or as soon as available—copy of this report).
A vision for regional ''laboratories'' or ''intel'' centers
The nature of the environmental issues facing our nation demand a capability that allows us to enhance economic vitality, maintain environmental quality, limit threats to life and property, as well as strengthen fundamental understanding of the Earth. These societal needs lead to a vision that uses a regional framework as a stepping-stone to a comprehensive national or global capability. The development of a comprehensive regional framework depends on the creation of a series of ''natural laboratories.'' These regional laboratories must have five key elements:
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(1) An integrated regional web of sensors, including physical, chemical, biological, and socioeconomic factors, that link existing observations into a coherent framework and enable new observations to be developed within an overall structure;
(2) An integrated and comprehensive regional information system, accessible to a wide variety of researchers, operational systems, and stakeholders;
(3) Directed process studies designed to examine specific phenomena through field study to address deficiencies in understanding; and
(4) A regional modeling foundation for constructing increasingly complex coupled system models at the spatial and temporal scales appropriate for the examination of specific and integrated biologic, hydrologic and socioeconomic systems.
(5) A strong link to users and decision-makers.
The above structure is inherently a hybrid between research and operational functions. Both benefit from the level of integration of observations and information, the targeted process studies, and the model development capability. An emphasis on a region-specific predictive capability will drive the development of new understanding and new suites of comprehensive interactive high-resolution models that focus on addressing societal needs. A key objective is to bring a demanding level of discipline to ''forecasting'' in a broad arena of environmental issues. Common objectives and an integrated framework will also engender new modes and avenues of research and catalyze the development of useful operational products. With demonstrated success, the concepts of integrated regional observation and information networks, combined with comprehensive models, will grow into a national capability that far exceeds current capabilities. Such a capability is designed to address a broad range of current and future, regional and global environmental issues. The justification for this vision follows:
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The Nature of the Problem:
The driving forces that alter environmental quality and integrity are widely recognized, involving primarily weather and climate, patterns of land use and land cover, and resource use with its associated waste products. But a key feature of most regions is that more than one driving force is changing simultaneously. Consequently, most locations are characterized by multiple stresses. The effect of a combination of environmental stresses is seldom simply additive. Rather, they often produce amplified or damped responses, unexpected responses, or threshold responses in environmental systems. Multiple, cumulative, and interactive stresses are clearly the most difficult to understand and hence the most difficult to manage.
In contrast, most research, analysis and policy are based on studies that examine discrete parts of these complex problems. Basically, Earth and environmental sciences tend to focus on cause and effect, where we seek to understand how a specific element of the system may respond to a specific change or perturbation (e.g., acid rain on lake fisheries). The lack of an ability to assess the response of the system to multiple stresses limits our ability to assess the impacts of specific human perturbations, to assess advantages and risks, and to enhance economic and societal well being in the context of global, national and regional stewardship.
Finally, many of the current environmental issues are expected to become more acute as we attempt to meet the needs of an increasingly complex and much larger, although stabilizing, population.
The Primary Needs to Serve Society:
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The need for society to enhance economic vitality, while maintaining environmental quality and limiting threat to property and lives, should drive the environmental research and operational enterprise. Reliable information about the future (i.e., predictions) is extraordinarily valuable in achieving these goals. However, society requires greater access to and greater confidence in both information and forecasts or projections in order to weigh the advantages and risks of alternative courses of action by private and public decision-makers. Such information is a key commodity in enhancing economic vitality and societal well-being.
Economic vitality and societal well-being are increasingly dependent on combining global, regional and local perspectives. A ''place-based'' imperative for environmental research stems from the importance of human activities on local and regional scales, the importance of multiple stresses on specific environments, and the nature of the spatial and temporal linkages between physical, biological, chemical and human systems. We find the strongest intersection between human activity, environmental stresses, earth system interactions and human decision-making in regional analysis coupled to larger spatial scales.
Addressing Societal Needs:
A decade of research on greenhouse gas emissions, ozone depletion and deforestation has clarified the promising pathways for research on global environmental change. Much of this strategy should and must focus on critical unanswered questions (a strategy for USGCRP Phase II). However, the last decade of effort has also revealed a number of challenges, most notably the challenge of creating integrated global observation capabilities, the computational and scientific limitations inherent in creating a truly integrated, global, coupled system modeling capability suitable for assessing impacts, and the challenge of addressing multiple stresses in a coupled system. These limitations and the need to directly focus on societal needs argue for an additional strategy that enables the development of comprehensive regional ''natural laboratories.'' Five elements are key to the success of this regional framework:
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(1) A Web of Integrated Sensors. The current U.S. observation strategy appears to be haphazard when viewed in the overall context of environmental problems. The reason is clear. The observations are driven by different mission needs and tend to focus on the measurement of discrete variables at a specific set of locations designed to serve the different needs of weather forecasting, pollution monitoring, hydrologic forecasting, or other objectives. The mission focus results in a diverse set of networks that are supported by a large number of different federal agencies, states, or regional governments. Increased awareness of a host of environmental issues drives demand for additional new observations. However, these new observations are frequently viewed independently of any overall structure or integrated observing strategy. Operational needs and research or long-term monitoring needs are also often independent. Importantly, regular and consistently repeated observations present added challenges in garnering sufficient financial resources. The end result is almost certainly fiscally inefficient, and undoubtedly limits our ability to integrate physical, biological, chemical and human systems.
The limitations of the current observing strategy are widely recognized and they have spurred efforts to develop Global Observing Systems for global change, climate, and oceanic and terrestrial systems in the international arena. These efforts are commendable and must be encouraged, but they are also extremely challenging because of the breadth of measurements, nations, capability and policies that are involved.
In contrast, at a regional level in the U.S. we have the potential to (a) link observing systems into a web of integrated sensors building upon existing weather and hydrologic stations and remote sensing capability, (b) create the agreements across a set of more limited agencies and federal, state and local governments needed to create a structure to the observing system, (c) provide a compelling framework that encourages or demands the integration of new observations into a broader strategy, and (d) create strong linkages between research and operational observations that result in mutual benefit. The result is likely to create new efficiencies through the development of measurement systems that are more comprehensive, rather than a suite of separately funded, disconnected systems. The result is also likely to result in greater scientific benefit to society and greater understanding due to the co-location or networking of many different measurement capabilities. The demonstration of fiscal efficiency and improved capability and resulting benefit are likely to create a significant additional impetus for developing national and global integrated observing systems.
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(2) Regional Information Systems. Society has amassed an enormous amount of data about the earth. New satellite systems and other observational capabilities promise enormous increases in the availability of earth data. Fortunately, technological innovations are allowing us to capture, process and display this information in a manner that is multi-resolution, and 4-dimensional. The major challenges involve data management, the storage, indexing, referencing, and retrieving of data and the ability to combine, dissect and query information. The ability to navigate this information, seeking data that satisfies the direct needs of a variety of users, is likely to spark a new ''age of information'' that will promote economic benefit and engender new research directions and capabilities to integrate physical, biological, chemical and human systems.
The efforts to create comprehensive information systems increasingly reflect federal and state mandates to make data more accessible and useful to the public and to ensure that our investments in research yield maximum societal benefit. The development of a global digital database is again an enormous challenge. In contrast, a regional or state focus becomes a logical test bed, enabling the participation of universities, federal, state and local governments, and industry in the development of a regional information system that is tractable and for which immediate benefit for a state or region can be evident. Again, the demonstration of capability and resulting benefit are likely to create a significant additional impetus for developing national and global information systems.
(3) Framework for Process Studies. Process studies are a critical element of scientific advancement because they are designed, through focused observations and modeling, to probe uncertainties in knowledge about how the Earth system functions. In many cases, mismatch between model predictions and observations can drive targeted investigations to limit the level of error. Frequently, efforts to couple different aspects of the Earth system (e.g., the atmosphere and land-surface vegetation characteristics) prompt targeted exploration because the level of understanding is still rudimentary. The objective is to use field study to address deficiencies in our understanding. The benefit of these intensive studies is maximized when they can be coupled with a highly developed, integrated set of sensors, with readily accessible spatial and temporal data within a regional information system, and with a predictive model framework that readily enables the entrainment and testing of new information from process studies.
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(4) Predictive Capability. The value of reliable advanced information is widely recognized. For example, we have considerable experience with the benefit of reliable weather forecasts, whether it involves the planning of a day around a precipitation forecast, the protection of life and property that stems from severe weather warnings, or the economic benefit of weekly, seasonal, or interannual forecasts used by climate or weather sensitive industries such as agriculture, forestry, fisheries, construction or transportation. For example, millions of dollars in commodity markets can be saved by regional utilities with advanced weather or seasonal forecasts, and El Niño forecasts a season in advance can substantially modify agricultural practice. Prediction is central to the translation of knowledge about the Earth system into economic benefit and societal well-being. Over the last several decades we have experienced enormous increases in our ability to forecast weather and to project climate and climate variability into the future.
The demand for new forecasting products, involving air quality, energy demand, water quality and quantity, ultraviolet radiation, and human health indexes is also growing rapidly, and as we demonstrate feasibility and benefit, society is likely to demand a growing number of new operational forecast products on prediction time scales of days to decades into the future. Further, we already clearly sense that environmental issues will demand an even greater capability to integrate physical, biological, chemical and human systems in order to develop the predictive capability needed to examine the response of critical regions or cases to multiple stresses.
Global weather and climate models provide the strongest physical foundation for more comprehensive predictive capability. The numerical models that underpin this type of forecasts are increasingly becoming the framework for the addition of new numerical formulations designed to predict air quality, the water balance for river forecast models, and a host of other variables including the migration of forests under climate change conditions. As we attempt to produce predictions at the scale of human endeavors, mesoscale models (capable of predicting synoptic weather systems) are increasingly becoming the focal point of weather and climate studies because of their potential to make predictions on the scale of river systems, cities, agriculture and forestry.
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Enormous potential exists if we can institutionalize a mesoscale numerical prediction capability that meshes with regional sensor webs and information systems. Such a capability enables a strategy and implementation capability for building tractable coupled models, initiating experimental forecasts of new variables, assessing the outcomes associated with multiple stresses, and of taking advantage of the discipline of the forecasting process to create a powerful regional prediction capability. This capability, built upon the numerical framework of weather and climate models, can be extended to air quality, water quantity and quality, ecosystem health, human health, agriculture, and a host of other areas.
It is time to bring a demanding level of discipline to the forecasting of a wide variety of environmental variables. The objective is to stimulate the interplay between improvements in observation, theory and practice needed to develop capabilities of broad value to society. The discipline of forecasting is dependent of four steps (a) collection and analysis of observations of present conditions, (b) use of subjective or quantitative methods to infer future conditions, (c) assessment of the accuracy of the prediction with observations, and (d) analysis of the results to determine how methods and models can be improved.
At a minimum, we are capable of bringing a much greater level of structure and discipline into our predictions of the future, ranging from specific forecasts to statistical ensembles that include a measure of expected accuracy, to an assessment of the range of possibilities.
(5) Strong User Interface. A truly useful regional enterprise depends on mechanisms that enable timely delivery of information relative to the decision needs of the users. The regional enterprises need to embrace the wide variety of space and time scales that are important to users. Education and outreach need to be primary functions of these facilities with an emphasis on information exchange and feedback, communication, accessibility of information, an active research effort directed specifically on user needs and applications, and a continuing process of evaluation and improvement.
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The regional vision described above is designed to address a broad range of current and future environmental issues by creating a capability based on integrated observing systems, readily accessible data, and an increasingly comprehensive predictive capability. With demonstrated success over a few large-scale regions of the U.S., this strategy will very likely grow into a national capability that far exceeds current capabilities.
Question 2: What specific recommendations would you make to improve the U.S. Global Change Research Program.
The greatest needs to improve the USGCRP are very well articulated in the recent NAS/NRC report entitled ''The Science of Regional and Global Change.'' In my view, the most critical facets of such an improvement include the following elements:
(1) Put the vast amount of knowledge we have gained to work by adding a greater focus on how this science can best serve society. Developing ''regional'' or ''place-based'' enterprises that create integrated observations, a real data and information management system, focused process studies, and a strong modeling and prediction enterprise (as described in the above ''vision'' statement under question 1) would be a tremendous step forward.
(2) We need a greater ability to work across agencies to develop an integrated observing system. This should start with an inventory of existing observing systems and data holdings, including (a) their purpose, (b) how user needs are addressed, (c) how the system is managed, and (d) what governs decisions about the observations. We should then work to promote efficiency by seeking opportunities where systems can be combined to serve multiple purposes in a more cost-effective manner and to use the savings to develop observing systems in areas of critical gaps or weaknesses.
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(3) A renewed effort to bring the United States back into the forefront of computational and modeling capability (see the NRC report on U.S. Climate Modeling Capability) is critical to the success of USGCRP objectives.
(4) A strong effort to integrate the physical, biological, chemical and human sciences. Many of the uncertainties, and many societal needs, require research at the interfaces between the disciplines. Relatively flat USGCRP funding has meant that these new areas, the product of great advances over the last decade, are not be adequately addressed. The connections between climate and the biosphere and climate and human systems are probably the most severely under-supported.
(5) Many of the research efforts, and the need to better serve society, cross agency boundaries or do not fall neatly into the mission of single agencies. We need to strengthen the linkages between agencies at a high level of the U.S. Government, perhaps with a new National Environmental Council at the level of the National Economic Council or National Security Council.
(6) We also need to strengthen the connection between research, operations and support of decision-makers (see the recent NRC report entitled ''Transition from Research to Operations: Crossing the Valley of Death).
A focus on these issues, while maintaining a USGCRP research effort that strives to reduce key uncertainties and address a host of specific global change research topics, would greatly strengthen the USGCRP.
Eric J. Barron
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Distinguished Professor of Geosciences
Director of the EMS Environment Institute
Pennsylvania State University
University Park, PA 16802
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PREPARED STATEMENT OF LEONARD J. PIETRAFESA
INTRODUCTION
Good Morning. My name is Dr. Leonard J. Pietrafesa and I am the Director of the Office of External Affairs in the College of Physical and Mathematical Sciences at North Carolina State University (NCSU) in Raleigh, NC. Also, I am a Professor in (since 1973) and was Head of (1989–1999) the Department of Marine, Earth and Atmospheric Sciences at NCSU.
I hold a Ph.D, from the University of Washington in the Fluid Physics of oceanic, atmospheric and hydrologic physical processes. I have been author or co-author of 146 peer reviewed publications in the areas of estuarine and coastal ocean and atmospheric weather and climate fluid physics dynamics. I have served as national Chair of the Board on Oceans and Atmosphere of the National Association of State Universities and Land Grant Colleges (NASULGC) and as national Chair of the Council on Ocean Affairs, the precursor to the Consortium for Oceanographic Research and Education (CORE). I am on the Board on Higher Education of the University Corporation for Atmospheric Research (UCAR) and the American Meteorological Society (AMS) and was Chair of the Board on Education of CORE. I also served on the Natural Hazards Mitigation Committee of the American Geophysical Union (AGU) and on the Science Advisory Committee of the US Weather Research Program. I very much appreciate the opportunity to appear before you and am here to testify about research and education within the National Oceanic & Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) on behalf of the NOAA Science Advisory Board (SAB).
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THE NATIONAL OCEANIC AND ATMOSPHERIC ADMINISTRATION
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration is an environmental mission agency founded on the generation and applications of scientific and technological environmental information and knowledge to provide information and services used to undergird the process of environmental decision-making in service to the citizenry of the United States. NOAA is responsible for providing the public and policy makers the best information and advice on the oceans, the atmosphere and hydrology. Sound environmental decision-making is dependent on the collection, integration, synthesis and the timely dissemination of these data and this information and knowledge from scientists to policymakers and managers. NOAA is the environmental agency charged to be at the leading edge of this process. Science and technology underlie NOAA's mission to monitor and predict atmospheric, oceanic, hydrologic and climatic events, environmental change and to manage and protect the nation's coastlines and its living marine resources.
These agency responsibilities and challenges illustrate the importance of science, research, technology development and transfer, and the interaction between science and public policy that has made NOAA the leading agency for the oceans and atmosphere. However, NOAA has not worked alone on these important issues but rather has historically been engaged in valuable partnerships with universities, the private sector, and international groups. These partnerships have strengthened research, given NOAA access to the best science, leveraged the university community's considerable intellectual and physical resources and enhanced NOAA's ability to deliver reliable environmental assessment and prediction. Nonetheless, the partnerships have not always been as prolific or productive as might be in NOAA's best interests because NOAA has been one of the few agencies with a strong science mission but without formal and systematic input and review of its research and science portfolio.
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To strengthen existing partnerships, to explore the differences in perspectives between NOAA and the university community at large, and to pursue new opportunities which would be mutually beneficial, a national meeting was held at AGU headquarters and attended equally by over 120 leading university representatives and NOAA administrators in May, 1996. The former Undersecretary of Commerce and Administrator of NOAA and I co-chaired that two day meeting. As one of the positive outcomes of the successful gathering, there was an agreement reached between NOAA and the university community, championed principally by NASULGC, but also by UCAR, AMS, AGU, and CORE, to partner and work jointly to establish a Science Advisory Board which was envisioned to become the critical link between NOAA and the academic community. Another outcome was the beginning of a series of annual constituent workshops which NOAA has hosted in Washington, DC, and which have allowed NOAA and an ambitious representation of its partners and constituents to discuss and prioritize NOAA initiatives.
THE NOAA SCIENCE ADVISORY BOARD
The NOAA Science Advisory Board (SAB) was enacted by a Decision Memorandum, approved for establishment by the US Secretary of Commerce in August, 1997, originally chartered in September 1997 and formally constituted in July, 1998. The current charter is due to expire in September, 2001. A request to renew the Charter was submitted by the Under Secretary to the Chief Financial Officer and Assistant Secretary for Administration in March, 2001. Since its inception the Board has met three times per year at NOAA and university facilities. Meeting locations are based on proximity to NOAA science centers and resource management facilities, many co-located with universities. The Board has also met at NOAA headquarters in Washington, DC and in Silver Spring, MD approximately three times per year.
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The Science Advisory Board is the only Federal Advisory Committee with responsibility to advise the NOAA Administrator on long- and short-range strategies for research, education and the application of science to resource management. Further, as originally conceived, the SAB acts as an apolitical liaison between NOAA's administration, which itself is non-partisan, and the nation's scientific community. This role is especially important today as the nation's scientific enterprise undergoes fundamental change including more emphasis on large integrative research projects, more involvement of the public in setting research goal and priorities, and increasing demands for science and technology to be more fully integrated into societal decision-making.
The SAB is composed of fifteen scientists, engineers, resource managers, and educators. The diverse membership of the board assures expertise reflecting the full breadth of NOAA's responsibilities, as well as the ethnic and gender diversity of the United States. Members were appointed by the NOAA Administrator to serve initially staggered terms of three, four and five years, for continuity, with the possibility of one three year renewal.
At SAB meetings, the board addresses the many scientific and technological programs and issues critical to NOAA's diverse mission portfolio. The SAB observes how strategic planning and the budget relate to science priorities. Additionally, the board reviews science programs and practices within the line offices. The board also helps to stimulate and improve partnerships with universities and Cooperative and Joint Institutes and Environmental Research Laboratories, all of which are important components of the NOAA portfolio. To date, the board has created subcommittees and working groups that oversee specific subject areas as coastal science, data issues, synthesis (social science research,) global climate change, and education. These subcommittees allow more focused investigation of NOAA's planning, delivery, and transfer of science and technology along lines of particular contemporary importance. These subcommittees identify operational S&T shortfalls and evaluate S&T opportunities.
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The SAB has articulated clear criteria for evaluating NOAA's science priorities and programs. According to these SAB themes NOAA science must be credible, reliable and respected. This means it must be subjected to the scrutiny of peer review. NOAA science should be conducted and completed in timeframes and operational scales that are useful to managers, decision-makers, and society, and directly linked to policy decision-making. NOAA should assist its state and local government partners to build capacity to address scientific and technical questions related to coastal and ocean governance. Moreover, understanding complex environmental systems requires the integration of the social and economic sciences within the biological and physical sciences. Successful integration occurs in problem formulation at the beginning rather than at the end of the research to development to technology transfer pipeline.
The diversity of NOAA's mandate creates the need for equally diverse science roles within NOAA.
First, there is a need for monitoring the oceans, atmosphere and land; where effective monitoring addresses the full continuum from bringing data into laboratories and archives to putting information and knowledge out into the hands of diverse internal and external clients. Recent examples of the outcomes of insufficient in-situ observations, i.e., under-sampling, are Hurricane Mitch's devastating turn to the south in the Gulf of Mexico when all models had it going north, and the busted forecast of the blizzard which was supposed to have hit Washington, DC. Hurricane Mitch, 22 October-05 November, 1998 was the deadliest Atlantic hurricane since 1780 and its path could have been better forecast were it not for a data void to the south of the Gulf of Mexico. Likewise the 04–05 March, 2001 potential blizzard that forced a government shut down of Washington, DC, but passed well offshore, was improperly forecast because of a lack of upstream marine buoy data from the region where cyclogenesis and storm intensification were occurring, off North Carolina and Virginia. In both cases, additional data would have allowed for model re-initialization and improved boundary conditions, likely resulting in more accurate forecasts.
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Second, there is the creation and dissemination of new knowledge, continually expanding our understanding of how the oceans and atmosphere function and interact with land, and impact human activities. This new knowledge is best created through a process of teamwork, both internal and external to NOAA. This teamwork, best effected through partnerships, equips NOAA with the world's best Science and Technology (S&T) and maximizes the return on the investment while minimizing transition time and cost. This process ensures that NOAA's weather, water, climate and environmental resource research and observing and forecasting capabilities are the best that they can be.
Third, there is the application of scientific data, information, and knowledge to real-world problems, particularly in the context of stewardship. Application of NOAA science and technology must make the choices available to decision-makers and policy-setters clear, and describe the consequences and uncertainties of each alternative. Such choices, and their associated questions, must be seen and addressed in advance of crises, rather than in response to them.
Protecting and restoring our environment for the benefit of current and future generations requires far-reaching public education initiatives, public support and university involvement. Here the SAB works with NOAA to expand involvement of groups not historically involved or represented in NOAA's science programs. The SAB believes that NOAA must be proactive to achieve greater diversity in its science programs, projects, and activities. NOAA's systems, policies and practices should encourage diversity and support all employees as they work to reach organizational and professional goals. Moreover, NOAA must work with the university community and with organizations such as NASULGC, UCAR, AMS, AGU, CORE and TOS to ensure that it will have an effective workforce that will ensure the future vitality of the agency.
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The SAB believes that it is functioning as originally conceived and taking on issues that are at the core of NOAA's scientific activities. For example:
The SAB has developed a set of critical R&D challenges for the NOAA Administrator to address.
The SAB has undertaken important program reviews and established a new protocol for evaluating NOAA research activities.
The SAB has played a key role in providing advice to NOAA in several key areas including ocean exploration, aquaculture, invasive species, the water cycle, ocean monitoring and observation, NOAA's role in the U.S. Global Change Research Program, data management, salmon recovery and many others.
The SAB is working with the NOAA line offices to conduct science reviews of NOAA laboratories and NOAA programs.
The SAB has also been working to ensure that NOAA integrates the human dimension into many of its major research programs. It is imperative to understand how Earth's environmental processes integrate with the decision-making process in order to develop successful strategies for reducing environmental risk.
Finally, the SAB has worked with the Administrator to connect the Budget Request process to NOAA's scientific objectives in support of NOAA's mission.
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The SAB has become the critical link between NOAA and the academic community, facilitating NOAA's efforts to leverage university intellectual and physical resources, better ensuring NOAA's success in meeting its mission. The SAB is key in helping to establish, evaluate, and preserve the partnerships that make the best NOAA science possible. The SAB cannot stress strongly enough that these roles for NOAA science and technology are not alternatives, where managers can choose among them. NOAA science is healthy and useful science only when all three exist in an appropriate balance. A key function of the intellectual disciplinary and cultural diversity present on the SAB is to thoroughly evaluate and candidly inform the NOAA Administrator, with regard to how well that balance is being achieved.
With the best science available, NOAA can continue its traditional and expanding roles of forecasting weather and climate conditions and events, predicting environmental changes, conserving living marine resources, and ensuring that development of coastal areas are sustainable. Enhancing science and technology provides the high-quality environmental information, products, and services needed by policy makers for decisions that affect the quality of human life, the health of environmental systems, human health and economic viability, environmental integrity and the infrastructure essential to modern society. Furthermore, the science-based environmental stewardship and technology transfer provided by NOAA has become essential to sustainable economic development.
The SAB has interacted very well with the Directors of the NOAA Line Offices and has provided reviews and overviews as appropriate. This activity is beginning to grow indicating the value of the service and advice provided.
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The SAB is and will continue to be a critical resource to Commerce Secretary Evans and to the next NOAA Administrator. The three-year FACA charter for the SAB is scheduled to expire in September, 2001. It would be a welcome opportunity for this committee to reinforce the need for science based decision-making by publicly supporting the renewal of the charter. In addition, it would certainly not be without precedent for the committee to permanently establish the SAB through legislation, providing a more stable environment for the SAB to operate. Moreover, NOAA has set aside $340,000 for the annual operation of the SAB. An authorization from Congress would provide some degree of protection against competing priorities.
ISSUES FACING NOAA IN THE NEXT FOUR YEARS
The NOAA Science Advisory Board has considered the present status of NOAA's science, likely developments in the various scientific disciplines intrinsic to NOAA's actions, and likely challenges faced by society and decision-makers in coming years. It has selected eleven, non-prioritized issues as being the key challenges to NOAA in the next four years.
Develop and implement a comprehensive strategy for preserving NOAA's databases. Escalating volumes of data and advances in information technology threaten the integrity of NOAA's historic and current databases. The nation cannot afford to lose any portion of its invaluable data bases. These data are key for use in retrospective studies and/or ensemble statistical studies to establish further skill in hind-casting and for observation simulation experiments. NOAA must plan and invest so that data that are produced are made available in a timely fashion and historic data are accessible when and where needed. NOAA needs to take all appropriate action to effectively carry out recommendations in the report entitled ''The Nation's Environmental Data: Treasures at Risk.''
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Stimulate greater integration of NOAA science and technology between the atmospheric, oceanic, and hydrologic sciences and the social sciences. Complex, non-linear, non-linearly coupled environmental problems are amenable to diverse teams of scientists with different but complementary expertise. NOAA is making progress on its commitment to integrate research on climate, weather, oceans, and marine resources. However, the social sciences also must be integrated with the biological and physical sciences from the beginning to the end of the research process. NOAA's institutional structure should foster such integration.
Ensure an appropriate balance between NOAA's short-term operational responsibilities and its longer-term mission to produce the science for sound environmental decision-making in the future. Site visits with NOAA scientists and managers in the field reveal a deep concern that budgetary shortfalls have shifted scarce resources from long-term science to short-term operations. Although we recognize the need for an operational capacity to meet today's responsibilities, NOAA must ensure that it is producing the data, science, and technology that will support the nation's long-term environmental agenda. The U.S. Weather Research Program (USWRP) and the Climate services initiatives are two examples of areas where the benefit to cost ratio of investments in science would be enormous.
Revise the strategic plan to include research, development, and technology transfer as core elements. Research is implicit rather than explicit in the current strategic plan, and as a result, it gets short shift in the budgetary process. NOAA should revise or amend its strategic plan to make clear that research binds environmental monitoring to environmental information to environmental modeling to environmental decision-making to environmental stewardship. Scientific research is the fuel that drives the NOAA engine and cannot be accomplished without proper support.
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Support and actively be engaged in the implementation of the National Ocean Exploration Strategy as recommended by the SAB and the President's Panel on Ocean Exploration entitled: ''Discovering Earth's Final Frontier: A U.S. Strategy for Ocean Exploration.'' On June 12, 2000, the Office of the President directed the Secretary of Commerce to convene a national panel of experts to develop a national strategy for ocean exploration. The Panel's report recommended a multidisciplinary national ocean exploration initiative, global in scope but initially focused on U.S. waters covering the four dimensions of space and time. Implementation of the ocean exploration strategy requires interagency cooperation and coordination with NOAA as a necessary principal partner. The ocean exploration program should become an integral component of NOAA's core mission.
Make the Chief Scientist a merit-based career appointment and fill the position at the earliest possible date. The Chief Scientist provides intellectual leadership within NOAA and is an authoritative voice to those outside the agency. The NOAA science community and its partners receive motivation and a sense of common vision from the leadership of the Chief Scientist. During the past three years, the agency has had a Senior Science Advisor in a part-time career appointment and progress has occurred in interagency cooperation, establishment of the Science Advisory Board, and in other areas. The increased importance of science to NOAA's mission, however, mandates recruitment of a full-time, career-appointment Chief Scientist/Senior Science Advisor.
Invest in climate observations, modeling and services. NOAA-supported science is at the cusp of important new understandings of atmospheric, hydrologic, and oceanic processes that will enable the nation to reduce the impacts from, and adapt to, climatic variations and change. NOAA should establish a national Climate information and services activity, akin to and coupled with the National Weather Service, as well as linked across other NOAA line offices with responsibilities and skill in climate, to produce basic research into global and regional signals of climate change and to deliver more accurate predictions and impact assessments. NOAA has established an important impression on the public and policy makers in the U.S. with its revelation of the relationship between the 1997 El Niño and subsequent La Niña and weather related adversity. But there are also other oceanic and atmospheric rhythms such as the North Atlantic and Pacific Decadal Oscillations whose variability and impacts must be understood. This Climate activity should also look to address societal issues such as the relationships between weather events and climate conditions to the outbreak and spread on infectious diseases affecting human health. In this climate activity NOAA will have to organize and co-ordinate internally as well as partner with other federal agencies such as the National Aeronautics and Space Administration, the National Science Foundation and the National Institutes of Health, the department of the Interior U.S. Geological Survey, the Environmental Protection Agency, if real progress is to be made. Because several NOAA lines are involved in ongoing and planned climate programs and services, NOAA is presently conducting an internal discussion to create an agreed to structure to this critically important program.
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Operationalize the precautionary and ecosystem approaches to management of marine and coastal systems. The concept of ecosystem management must be brought to an operational state so it can serve as the foundation for building sustainable fisheries, recovering endangered species, and managing coastal environments sustainably.
Institutionalize and strengthen NOAA's educational and outreach capacities, including technology transfer. NOAA has an obligation and duty to provide information and products and services to the public and to public policy and decision-makers. Such information must be complete, accurate and easily understood by a variety of users ranging from children to policy makers. Technology transfer should be streamlined and responsive to industry needs and capabilities. Here, NOAA must also pay attention to partnering with universities to ensure the vitality of its future workforce.
Formalize the transfer of NOAA's research and development into scientific advice to managers and decision-makers. The transfer of knowledge and technology to applications and societal decision making is impeded by lack of structured scientific advisory processes. The advisory processes should be open and transparent, ensure full peer review, incorporate traditional sources of knowledge, and clearly communicate uncertainty and diversity of scientific opinion. Here such tools and information for more refined, physical and social science comprehensively integrated, easily understandable empirical relationships could be readily implemented. All voids or impediments in the end to end process from acquiring to translating and transferring scientific knowledge must be identified and eliminated. There is presently a very limited understanding of the complex and dynamic interactions between nature's systems and society so that alarming trends towards increased vulnerability can be reversed. Achieving sustainability will require improved scientific collaborations between NOAA and its partners, a change in mindset about what is at stake and an improvement in the methodology of the communication of the science. Good examples within NOAA are the workshops and services provided by the National Hurricane Center, the National Weather Service and the NOAA Coastal Services Center.
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Maintain and expand a comprehensive, national environmental monitoring and prediction network. Data and the supporting forecasting tools and models are necessary to meet the needs and demands for information and predictions derived from sustained operational observations in space, throughout the atmosphere, on land, in rivers, and in the Great Lakes and coastal and open oceans. Growing complexity of demands for information require the environmental monitoring networks to include more physical, biological, and socio-economic attributes, and have complete geographic coverage. Unfortunately the environment is under sampled, both on land in the water and in the atmospheric environments. This is particularly true in the coastal oceans, including the Great Lakes and in our river watersheds. For example there are now only 57 base funded Marine Buoys and CMAN stations in all U.S. coastal and great Lake waters and with so much high energy weather originating over these environments this network is inadequate to the task. Given that the existing in-situ data network is presently inadequate, not only must cuts not be made to the budgets of agencies who maintain these observational systems but additional investments must be made to expand these absolutely critical observational, monitoring networks. Here, NOAA is the key agency which must serve the nation via reliable, credible, timely forecasts, but its ability to meet its mission is being compromised. This situation is widely recognized and splinter groups are forming for special appropriations from Congress to fund the creation of their own self serving networks. But these special set asides, based on politics rather than process and need, will fund observational systems which may not be integrated, may be inappropriately sited and will be unsustainable. NOAA should support the Marine Observation and the Coastal and Global Ocean Observing plans that have been put forward by the scientific community. The NWS modernization is a wonderful example of a back-bone national network Another example of a success story is the National Atmospheric Deposition Program (NADP)/National Trends Network (NTN) which was instituted in 1978 and now consists of 200 sites nationally which collect information to assess the transfer of chemical substances from the atmosphere to terrestrial and aquatic systems. The network has the longest, multi-site time and space history of precipitation chemistry in the world, has maintained an effective quality assurance program throughout that period and shows the value of a long-term environmental monitoring network.
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Suffice it to say, the SAB believes that over the past thirty years, the science capacity of NOAA has in fact provided the foundations for the agency's accomplishments, including global leadership in:
Maintenance and modernization of observational and monitoring networks for research and development of information, modeling and forecasting, to provide advanced warnings of weather conditions and events, climate conditions, and hydrologic events.
Development and technology transfer of atmospheric and oceanic information, products, and services to both the public and private industry.
Development and technology transfer of safe navigation, marine resource conservation, ocean mapping information, products and services.
Modernization and technological advances in atmospheric, oceanic, and hydrologic research, including participation in international programs such as The World Climate Research Program and the International Geosphere-Biosphere Program.
Integration of coastal zone management and linking science to environmental stewardship.
The technology used to advance NOAA's mission include:
Real-time continuous space weather observations so important for communications networks in the air and on land.
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Real-time monitoring of global atmospheric, oceanic, and terrestrial conditions via satellites.
Deploying the global arrays of in-situ observing systems, such as the Tropical Atmosphere and Ocean array of ocean and atmospheric instruments in the Equatorial Pacific Ocean and the Argos floats globally.
Maintaining the atmospheric and coastal ocean Marine Buoy, Coastal Marine Automated Network, and coastal Sea Level monitoring networks so necessary to our weather forecasting and sea level variation assessment capacity.
Maintaining the fleet of research vessels from which data are collected and instruments are deployed, serviced and recovered.
These observing systems taken in total allow for an optimal mix of observations. The in-situ observations provide boundary and initial conditions for the operation, updating and validation of numerical model predictions of weather events as well as the seasonal to inter-annual to decade to multi-decade variability of ocean and atmospheric climate conditions, and finally to ground truth the satellite data.
Evaluating the status of many hundreds of stocks of exploited marine fish species, marine mammals, turtles and marine birds.
Providing restoration technologies and detailed photogrammetric images of coastal zones to assist coastal management.
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Maintaining and upgrading the national computational capability for forecasting weather and climate.
In summary, the three overriding issues facing NOAA are:
Building and maintaining the backbone, in-situ observational network which along with satellite data creates the optimal mix of an integrated monitoring network, is insufficient to drive the science to meet NOAA's mission.
The NOAA science plan must be more fully connected to the NOAA budget process.
Long-term science programs, which include the end to end transfer of new information and technology to decision-makers and managers, must not be compromised by short term projects.
In summary the specific research areas that require more attention are those processes, events and conditions which pose an immediate or long term risk to the health, safety and welfare of human communities and environmental systems. These include a better understanding of:
Ocean-atmospheric-hydrologic coupling as related to persistent or extreme weather events and climate conditions.
Processes leading to deleterious impacts on ecosystem structure including plants, animals and humans.
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Non-linear, non-stationary couplings between physical and biological systems, focussing on the interaction between nature and society.
On behalf of the NOAA Science Advisory Board, I thank you for this opportunity to meet with you and would be happy to provide any additional information and opinions to you and your staff.
BIOGRAPHY FOR LEONARD J. PIETRAFESA
College of Physical & Mathematical Sciences, Box 8201, North Carolina State University, Raleigh, NC 27695
Phone: (919) 515–7777 (direct dial)
Fax: (919) 513–4242 (direct fax)
E-mail: Len–Pietrafesa@ncsu.edu
DOB: 5/19/43
Areas of Interest: Estuarine and Continental Margin Oceanographic, Atmospheric and Land Coupled Processes, Oceanic and Atmospheric Weather and Climate Phenomena and Impacts, Observations and Modeling of Non-Linear Couplings of Earth Systems, Wind-Wave-Current Coupled Interactions, Precipitation and River Discharge
Education:
1965 BS, Fairfield University (Fairfield, CT) Physics & Mathematics
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1967 MS, Boston College/University of Chicago (Boston, MA/ Chicago, IL) Geophysics/Geophysical Fluid Dynamics (Advisors: Fr./Dr. J. DeVane, Dr. L.F. McGoldrick)
1973 Ph.D., University of Washington (Seattle, WA) Geophysics/Geophysical Fluid Dynamics (Advisors; Dr. M. Rattray, Dr. J.D. Smith)
Industry Employment:
1965, 1966, 1968 Weston Geophysical Engineers, Boston, MA. (Projects: U.S. Nuclear Test Ban Treaty Verification; New England Power Blackout Source; Panama Canal Expansion Assessment; West Australia Environmental Assessment; Preservation of Old Man on the Mountain, NH)
Academic Experience:
9/1999– Director, Office of External Affairs, College of Physical and Mathematical Science, NCSU
7/1989–9/1999 Head, Dept. of Marine, Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, NCSU
6/1988–7/1989 Associate Dean for Research, College of Physical and Mathematical Sciences, NCSU
7/1988–6/1989 3rd Director, University Honors Council, NCSU
7/1992–12/1996 Director, Southeast University Consortium for Severe Storms (NCSU, FSU.GaT, UAL)
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7/1981– Full Professor, Department of Marine, Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, NCSU
7/1976–6/1981 Tenured Associate Professor, Departments of Geosciences & Marine Sciences & Engineering, NCSU
7/1973–6/1976 Assistant Professor, Dept. of Geosciences, NCSU
Recent (Selected) National Committee Service:
8/2000– University Member Representative to The University Corporation for Atmospheric Research
6/1998–5/2003 National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Science Advisory Board
5/1999–3/2000 National Research Council Committee on Climate Change & Coastal Impacts
6/1997–3/1998 National Research Council Group on the Essential Marine Buoy & CMAN National Network
9/1999– Co-Chair of US/PRC Steering Committee on Virtual Co-Laboratories
3/1997– Member, National Water Initiative Task Force of National Association of State Universities and Land Grant Colleges (NASULGC)
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11/2000– NASULGC's Representative to U.S. National Water Task Force Team
11/1999– Member, National Association of State Universities and Land Grant Colleges (NASULGC)
Executive Committee on Food, the Environment and Natural Resources
11/1996–11/1997 Chair, NASULGC Board on Oceans and Atmosphere
7/1997–6/1998 Member, National Research Council Committee on National Sea Grant College Program
10/1995– Member, American Meteorological Society (AMS) Board on Education
3/1998–3/2000 Chair, Consortium for Oceanographic Research and Education (CORE) Board on Education
5/1996– Member, American Geophysical Union (AGU) Committee on Natural Disasters/Hazards
5/1999– Member, NASULGC/Department of Interior (USGS) Partnership Committee
5/1998–1/2001 Contributor, IPCC Assessment of Coastal Effects of Climate Change
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5/1999– Member, NASULGC/NASA Partnership Committee
11/1994–11/1999 Board of Trustees, National Institute of Statistical Sciences
9/1995–5/1998 Science Advisory Committee of the U.S. Weather Research Program
11/1997– Member, CORE Executive Committee
3/1996–11/1997 Chair of Council on Ocean Affairs
3/1997–5/1999 Presented oral and written testimony before four different United States Senate and House Subcommittees on issues related to science, technology and natural resources
3/1997–2/1998 Co-Chair (with R. Rotunno) of U.S. Weather Research Program—Prospectus Development Team (#3) on Coastal Weather
Professional Organizations:
American Meteorological Society—Fellow
American Geophysical Union
Oceanography Society (Charter—Lifetime Member)
Sigma Xi (past local chapter president)
Phi Kappa Phi
American Association for the Advancement of Science
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Society for Non-Linear Mathematics
Grants:
Total of 73 Awards as Principal or Co-Principal Investigator totaling $14,354,790 (over period 7/1973–3/2001)
Present Funding:
1) ONR $299,500, 5/1998–6/2001 Coupled Gravity Waves and Currents (with Xie)
2) NSF $94,624, 8/1999–7/2001 Ocean Margins Data Assimilation and Interpretation (with DeMaster, Xie)
3) NSF $99,999, 9/2000–8/2001 Bio-Complexity Incubation: Integrated Modeling between Ecological Systems and Economic Impacts (with V.K. Smith and Xie)
4) NOAA $600,000, 3/1/2001–7/2003 A Risk Assessment Tool: Predicting Coastal Flooding for Operational Purposes (with Xie and Stirling of Waterstone Assoc. Inc.)
10 Recent Peer Reviewed Publications relevant to proposal: Out of Total of 143
1) Pietrafesa, L.J., L. Xie and D. Dickey, 2001. Flooding Due to Hurricanes Dennis and Floyd, Chapter in Book. Environmental and Socio-Economic Impacts of Hurricane Floyd, McGraw Hill.
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2) Xie, L., L.J. Pietrafesa, 2000. Hindcasting and Prediction of the Climatology of Landfalling Atlantic Hurricanes. Proceedings of Hurricane Conference, American Meteorological Society, May, 2000.
3) Xie, L., L. Pietrafesa and S. Raman, 1999: Coastal Ocean-Atmosphere Coupling. Chap. 6 in (book) Coastal Ocean Prediction. AGU Coastal Studies Series. Edited by C.N.K. Mooers, 101–123.
4) Pietrafesa, L.J., L. Xie, J. Morrison, G.S. Janowitz, J. Pellissier, K. Keeter and R.A. Neuherz, 1999. Numerical Modeling and Visualization of Storm Surge in and around the Albemarle-Pamlico estuary system during Hurricane Emily, August, 1993. Mausam, 48, 4, Oct., 567–578.
5) Xie, L. and L.J. Pietrafesa, 1999. Systemwide Modeling of Wind and Density Driven Circulation in the Albemarle-Pamlico Estuary Sound System. Part I: Model configuration and testing. Journal of Coastal Research, 15 (4), p. 1163–1177.
6) Li, X., L.J. Pietrafesa, J.M. Morrison, and A. Ochadlick, 1999. Analysis of Oceanic Internal Waves from Airborne Synthetic Aperature Radar. J. of Coastal Research, 15, 4, 884–891.
7) Xie, L., L.J. Pietrafesa, E. Bohm, C. Zhang and X. Li, 1998. Evidence and Mechanism of Hurricane Fran Induced Ocean Cooling in the Charlesto Trough, Geophys. Res. Letters, 25, 6, 769–772.
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8) Logan, D., L.J. Pietrafesa, J.M. Morrison, J. Churchill, 2000. Physical Oceanographic Processes Affecting Inflow/Outflow through Beaufort Inlet, NC. J. of Coastal Research, 16, 4, 1111–1125.
9) Xie, L., L.J. Pietrafesa, C. Zhang, 1999. Subinertial Response of the Gulf Stream System to Hurricane Fran, J. Geophys. Res. Letters, 26, 23, 3457–3460.
10) Xie, L., L.J. Pietrafesa, S. Raman, 1997. Interaction Between Surface Winds and Ocean Circulation in a Coupled Low-Order Model, Continental Shelf Res., 17, 12, 1483–1511.
Professional and Public (Invited Only) Presentations: Total of 162
Students: Chair or Co-Chair of 22 Ph.D. (20 Completed) Committees
Chair or Co-Chair of 22 MS (21 Completed) Committees
Post Docs and Technicians Supervised: 24
PREPARED STATEMENT OF JOSEPH K. HOFFMAN
On behalf of the Interstate Council on Water Policy (ICWP), representing states and interstate water resource management agencies across the country, I am pleased to present the following testimony addressing U.S. Geological Survey stream gages and their importance to the National Weather Service and flood forecasting. In my role as Executive Director of the Interstate Commission on the Potomac River Basin, one of these water resource agencies, I see firsthand the importance of the National Weather Service and USGS stream gages to our flood and water supply forecasting.
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ICWP is committed to seeking more comprehensive and coordinated approaches to water management that integrate quality and quantity concerns, ground water and surface water management, and economic and environmental values. It is within this context that the following testimony has been developed.
The national program of flood forecasting carried out by the National Weather Service and its river forecast centers is of significant value to a wide range of interests, but is critically important because it saves lives and dollars lost to flood damage.
The system relies upon a network of precipitation (rain) gages, new radar systems, and stream gages. This equipment deployed throughout the United States allow the experts in the forecasts centers to know how much rain has fallen, over what time period it fell, the continuing rate of rainfall and what stream conditions exist. These data elements are used in sophisticated models to allow the forecasters to issue alerts where and when needed.
Additionally, the presence of a specialized forecasting tool in the Susquehanna River Basin allows forecasts for that region to be issued promptly, thus giving the forecasters at the Mid-Atlantic River Forecast Center in State College, Pennsylvania time to focus attention on other basins for which they are responsible, such as my home basin of the Potomac.
Forecasters issue alerts to local communities and emergency planners who in turn take action—evacuation, protection of property, to help people avoid the adverse consequences of the flood event.
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During the last several weeks we have seen almost daily media coverage of the flooding in the Midwest. Prompt alerts, enhanced by integrated data from an array of rain and stream gages, is essential to ensuring that lives and property are not lost to destructive flood waters. Fortunately, the nature of the Midwest flooding leaves days available to activate local National Guard members to help with sandbagging and flood fighting.
However, the terrain in much of the Eastern United States is different from the Midwest. For example, in the Susquehanna River Basin of New York, Pennsylvania and Maryland, there are steep slopes, more rapid runoff occurring from large rain events, and narrow valleys to receive the rain. In this situation, emergency managers need much more rapid data for flood alerts as they only have hours in preparation time.
An additional two or three hours advance notice generated by technology currently available and deployed in forecast centers, helps remarkably. Think of the damages prevented if time is available because of an increase of two-hours in alert time to let a car dealer move his inventory from a flood prone site to a high school parking lot located on higher ground. That additional time for warning is made possible by real time monitoring stations, such as the gaging stations located on streams throughout a basin.
We cannot allow the system that is in place to deteriorate because of funding shortfalls. This is in the national interest. ICWP is deeply concerned about budget cuts proposed by the Administration in the stream-gaging area. USGS stream gages provide reliable, impartial and timely information needed by our agencies for both flood risk assessment, water supply planning and stream flow forecasting.
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I have mentioned the Susquehanna River Basin twice. It is an example of an area where the Congress has recognized the needs for support and over the last 10 to 12 years has authorized funding beyond the requests of the agency and the several Administrations to maintain the basics of a flood forecast and warning system that has a benefit to cost ratio of 12.5 dollars saved in flood damages annually to each single dollar expended.
Several times I have referred to the integration of rain gage data and stream gage data as being vital to these efforts. This subcommittee does not have direct responsibility for the appropriation to the U.S. Geological Survey in the Interior Department, but members should keep in mind the need for both sets of data as appropriation decisions are made.
It is not just in times of excess that water managers through out the nation use data from the two agencies. For example, memories in this area are still fresh about the drought event of 1999, an event that surprised many people and water managers. The operations of the Interstate Commission of the Potomac River basin to manage the supply of water for the metropolitan Washington region and its residents and visitors rely upon timely and accurate stream gages. We use real time data available from the U.S. Geological Survey's gages to direct appropriate releases of life and economic supporting water from reservoirs, without wasting tomorrow's needed water today.
As this hearing is taking place, a media briefing is being held at Metropolitan Washington Council of Governments to present a water supply outlook for this region. Data from the U.S. Geological Survey and National Weather Service (and several other agencies) and products from this data are integrated to provide timely and accurate information that is credible and useful to multiple water users and agencies. Of particular importance are new products such as the U.S. Drought Monitor, a weekly assessment, that provides a good focus on drought conditions and persistence that water managers can use as they develop near-term operational plans.
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Flow forecasts for water supply are equally important in water management decisions, including reservoir release schedules, peak demand forecasting, and instream environmental uses. Just as in the case of floods, the use of gaging stations and their historic record of flow performance is paramount to obtaining as accurate and precise a set of probabilistic forecast as possible. While technology and analytical techniques for forecasting continue to reach new plateaus in sophistication, they are worthless guesses if there is a dearth of historic and real time streamflow data to feed them. In the art of forecasting, the value of ''ground truth'' to verify the projections and make necessary adjustments cannot be understated. The presence of a robust network of stream gages is an absolute necessity for supporting management decisions during pending hydrologic hazards of floods and droughts. It would be bad policy to subjugate basic data collection in the name of technological advances in research. Both efforts are needed in order to provide the public service in water management and disaster mitigation.
Short-sighted fiscal decisions in the past have led to devastating consequences. One such devastating example came in Falmouth, Kentucky. A critical stream gage above Falmouth had been funded by a combination of partners (federal, state, and local) through the USGS cooperative program. Unfortunately, some of the federal partners pulled their funding and state and local officials couldn't operate the gage without a funding partner. The National Weather Service had warned the locals they were putting themselves at risk without a gage. In the end, no one funded the gage in 1994 and two years later there was a catastrophic flood on the Licking River. There were five deaths associated with that flood on March 1, 1997 when the river crested 4 meters higher and 6 hours earlier than NWS predictions.
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It is important to remember that the data provided by federally supported stream gages are among the most valued services provided by government.
The President has made a hallmark of using good science to derive good water and environmental policy. Good science requires good basic data, such as those provided by the stream-gaging network. At the same time, overall budget cuts for USGS programs have been proposed at 8 percent ($69 million) Water Resources Investigations programs would face a 22 percent reduction ($44 million), including $5 million for stream gages and $3 million for water information delivery.
The USGS has developed a strategic plan to build a national network of gages to support the federal interest pertaining to water. Additionally, thousands of state and local cooperators have dedicated over $25 million per year to support stream gages in the name of good science, good policy and good management.
The use and support of the National Weather Service forecasting capability is a major concern for the Interstate Council on Water Policy members, as well as other state and interstate water agencies, nationwide. However, this capability is largely dependent upon a strong network of basic data gathering capacity on our lands and streams across the nation. Federal support of the National Weather Service cannot be extended without consideration of support on the ancillary functions provided by the U.S. Geological Survey. Forecasting models without real data on our streams are no better than educated guesses and this relationship only gets more important when we realize that weather and climate are in a dynamic state. Hydrologic conditions which we have observed historically, may no longer be germane as weather patterns change and stream responses are reset to a new equilibrium. Because small changes in nature can lead to major consequences to the public safety and economic stability of our nation, it is imperative that the federal government continue to monitor and forecast streamflow conditions in order to direct appropriate responses to hydrologic extremes.
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Over the next few months, ICWP will have gathered information from a series of regional workshops across the nation to glean a coherent policy of the relative responsibilities and uses of a nationwide stream gaging network. Such a network will be an amalgamation of federal priority gages, state and local coop gages and non-federal gages. This network will take time to develop in order to meet the long range goals of water management for the country.
I thank you for the opportunity to testify and would be pleased to answer any questions that you may have on these issues.
BIOGRAPHY OF JOSEPH K. HOFFMAN
Mr. Hoffman received a Bachelor of Science in Civil Engineering from North Carolina State University. He is registered as a Professional Engineer in the Commonwealth of Pennsylvania. Mr. Hoffman was appointed Executive Director of the Interstate Commission on the Potomac River Basin in November 1998.
Mr. Hoffman retired from the Pennsylvania Department of Environmental Protection to assume his new role. During almost 27 years with the Department, Mr. Hoffman had a variety of water resources assignments involving him in drought contingency planning, abandoned coal mine reclamation, flood control project planning, rivers conservation, wetlands protection, coastal zone management, state water planning and improved flood forecasting within the Susquehanna River Basin. During 1995 and 1997, he served as the Drought Coordinator for the Department. His last assignment was as Assistant Director of the Bureau of Water Supply Management, where he was responsible for drinking water and black fly suppression programs. He also was temporarily a assigned to manage the Commonwealth's storage tanks program and established a program to implement new and enhanced environmental technologies in the Department's Water Management programs.
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Mr. Hoffman was a Pennsylvania appointee (1987 to 1995) on the Great Lakes Commission, serving as Chairman during 1993 and 1994. From February 1990 to April 1993, he represented Pennsylvania and the Great Lakes states as a member of the International Joint Commission's Levels Reference Study Board that evaluated fluctuating levels on the Great Lakes and recommended measures to alleviate the impacts. He also was the Pennsylvania representative to the Ohio River Basin Commission where he served as Chair during 1990 and 1991.
The Interstate Commission on the Potomac River Basin was created with an interstate compact by an act of Congress in 1940. The agency is under the purview of House and Senate Committees on the Judiciary of the Congress and appropriations, when made, are subject to action by the House and Senate Subcommittees on Energy and Water Development. Member jurisdictions include the United States, the Commonwealths of Pennsylvania and Virginia, the States of Maryland and West Virginia and, the District of Columbia with Commissioners appointed in accordance with enabling legislation for each appointing body.
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