TABLE 1


Table 1: Estimated New U.S. Authorizations for the FSM and the RMI, Fiscal Years 2004-2086
(U.S. dollars in millions)
FSM RMI Total
Fiscal years 2004-2023
Grants for priority areas$1,612$701*$2,313
Trust fund contributions517276793
Payments for U.S. military use of Kwajalein Atoll land**Not applicable191191
Compact-authorized federal services***16737204
New U.S. authorization for 2004-2023$2,296$1,204$3,500
Fiscal years 2024-2086
Grants to KwajaleinNot applicable$948*$948
Payments for U.S. military use of Kwajalein Atoll landNot applicable2,1332,133
Possible New U.S. authorization for 2024-2086Not applicable$3,081$3,081
Fiscal years 2004-2086, total new U.S. authorizations for the FSM and the RMI$2,296$4,285$6,581

Source: GAO estimate based on the amended Compacts. Under the amended Compacts, U.S. payments are adjusted for inflation at two-thirds of the percentage change in the U.S. gross domestic product implicit price deflator.

Note: Numbers may not sum due to rounding.

*The 1986 U.S.-RMI Military Use and Operating Rights Agreement (MUORA) grants the United States access to certain portions of Kwajalein Atoll and provides $24.7 million of funding for development and impact on Kwajalein from 2004 to 2016. Approximately $112 million of the new proposed U.S. grant assistance of $701 million is for increasing this funding to Kwajalein from 2004 to 2016 and for continuation of the increased level of funding through 2066 and possibly to 2086 if the agreement is extended.

**As part of the 1986 MUORA, the RMI government has also allocated $162 million of U.S. funding from 2004 to 2016 under this agreement to landowners via a traditional distribution system to compensate them for the U.S. use of their lands for defense sites. The U.S. proposal increases these payments from 2004 to 2016 and continues the increased level of payments through 2066 and possibly to 2086 if the agreement is extended.

***Federal services authorized in the Compact include weather, aviation, and postal services. Services associated with the Federal Emergency Management Agency have been excluded. An estimate of assistance from the U.S. Agency for International Development's Office of Disaster Assistance has not been included.

















TABLE 2


Table 2: Estimated Performance for the FSM and the RMI Trust Funds under Alternative Rates of Return
(U.S. dollars in millions)
bFund earns State Dept.   assumed return (6%) bFund earns return from 60% stocks and 40% long-term government bonds (7.9%)
FSM RMI FSM RMI
Projected value of trust fund at the end of FY 2023$1,013$575$1,255$717
Projected value of FY 2023 trust fund return57339253
Surplus of FY 2023 trust fund return over FY 2024 required grant funding-275825
Year when trust fund return is unable to replace grant fundingFY 2024FY 2040FY 2048*

Source: GAO estimate based on amended Compacts adjusted for expected inflation.

Note: The historic average real rate of return from the U.S. stock market has been 7 percent. Assuming a trust fund based on 60 percent stocks, which at a forecasted inflation rate of 2.2 percent would earn a 9.2 percent return, and 40 percent long-term U.S. government bonds, which would earn the forecasted nominal rate of return of 5.8 percent, a nominal rate of return of 7.9 percent could be achieved for the trust fund. The estimated value of the trust funds includes monies accrued in the buffer accounts and reflect the initial contribution made by the FSM and the RMI to their respective trust funds.

*The RMI trust fund under this scenario continues to grow in perpetuity. However, this analysis assumes a steady real rate of return and does not account for volatility in returns.

















TABLE 3


Table 3: Key Immigration Issues: A Comparison of the Original and Amended Compacts
Issue Original Compact Amended Compacts
PassportsCompact nonimmigrants do not need a passport to be admitted to the United States.Compact nonimmigrants would need a valid passport in order to be admitted into the United States.
Entry into the United States for naturalized FSM and RMI citizensNaturalized FSM and RMI citizens are eligible to apply for admission to the United States 5 years after they are naturalized, so long as they were a resident of the FSM or the RMI during that time.Naturalized citizens would only be admissible if they are immediate relatives of a citizen of the FSM or the RMI or if they were naturalized before April 30, 2003.*
Entry into the United States for the purpose of adoptionA child who came to the United States for the purpose of adoption is not expressly prohibited from seeking admission into the United States under the Compact. However, the United States government has maintained that such children are not admissible under the Compact, but, rather, that they had to seek admission under general immigration requirements for adopted children.A child who is coming to the United States for the purpose of adoption would not be admissible under the amended Compacts. Instead, these children would have to apply for admission to the United States under the general immigration requirements for adopted children. This provision would apply to any child who applied for admission to the United States on or after March 1, 2003.
Conditions on admission to the United States and its territories or possessions for Compact nonimmigrantsThe United States has the authority to establish limitations, either in statutes or regulations, on a Compact nonimmigrant's right to establish habitual residence in a territory or possession of the United States.**The Attorney General would have the authority to issue regulations that specify the time and conditions of a Compact nonimmigrant's admission into the United States.***

Source: GAO legal analysis of the original and amended Compacts.

Note: In addition, any of the authorities in the amended Compacts that the United States may exercise could also be exercised by the governments of the U.S. territories or possessions where the INA does not apply (i.e., the CNMI and American Samoa), so long as the exercise of such authority is lawful under the laws of that territory or possession.

*Such naturalized citizens would also have to meet additional requirements, including residency requirements, unless they are an immediate relative of a citizen of the FSM or the RMI who is serving in the U.S. military.

**The United States promulgated regulations in September 2000 regarding the rights and limitations of habitual residents in the territories and possessions of the United States. These regulations applied to Compact nonimmigrants in Guam, the Commonwealth of Puerto Rico, and the U.S. Virgin Islands. They did not apply to Compact nonimmigrants residing in the 50 states, the District of Columbia, American Samoa, or the CNMI.

***The INA would now expressly apply to any Compact migrant who seeks admission or is admitted to the United States. As such, in addition to the Attorney General's authority to promulgate regulations, any grounds of inadmissibility or deportability under the INA would now apply to Compact migrants except where the amended Compacts specify otherwise. Some modifications, however, were made to the INA provision, section 237(a)(5), allowing for deportation on the basis of an alien becoming a public charge.

















TABLE 4


Table 4: Estimated New U.S. Authorizations for the FSM and the RMI, Fiscal Years 2004-2086
(Fiscal Year 2004 U.S. Dollars in Millions)
FSM RMI Total
Fiscal years 2004-2023
Grants for priority areas$1,323$572$1,895
Trust fund contributions411218628
Payments for U.S. military use of Kwajalein Atoll landNot applicable144144
Compact-authorized federal services13530165
New U.S. authorization for 2004-2023$1,868$963$2,832
Fiscal years 2024-2086
Grants to KwajaleinNot applicable$306$306
Payments for U.S. military use of Kwajalein Atoll landNot applicable688688
New U.S. authorization for 2024-2086Not applicable$993$993
Fiscal years 2004-2086, total new U.S. authorizations for the FSM and the RMI$1,868$1,956$3,825

Source: GAO estimate based on the amended Compacts.

Note: Numbers may not sum due to rounding.

















TABLE 5


Compact of Free Association
Federates States of Micronesia (FSM) and Republic of the Marshall Islands (RMI)
Congressional Involvement in Agreement Change/Amendment
Requires Congr. Action Requires Congr. Notification
Compact as AmendedX
Federal Programs and Services Agreement includingX
  Postal Services and Related Programs
  Weather Service and Related Programs
  Civil Aviation Safety Service and Related Programs
  Civil Aviation Economic Services and Related Programs
  United States Disaster Preparedness and Response Services
    and Related Programs
  Telecommunications Services and Related Programs
  Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FSM Only)
Law Enforcement Agreement (Section 175(a))X
Labor Agreement (Section 175(b))X
Fiscal Procedures AgreementX
Trust Fund AgreementX
Military Use and Operating Rights AgreementX
Status of Forces Agreement(certain   sections)
X
Section 462(a) list :
  177 (RMI only)X
  Persons Displaced as a result of U.S. Nuclear Testing
    Programs (RMI)
X
  Resettlement of Enjebi Island (RMI)X
  234 AgreementX
  Mutual Security Pursuant to Sections 321 and 323X
  Marine Sovereignty and Jurisdiction (FSM)X

Notes:

1. Agreements apply to both FSM and RMI except as noted.

2. Chart based on Compact Act as submitted to U.S. Congress.

July 10, 2003