SPEAKERS CONTENTS INSERTS
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THE PATH TO A HYDROGEN ECONOMY
HEARING
BEFORE THE
COMMITTEE ON SCIENCE
ONE HUNDRED EIGHTH CONGRESS
FIRST SESSION
MARCH 5, 2003
Serial No. 108–4
Printed for the use of the Committee on Science
THE PATH TO A HYDROGEN ECONOMY
85–417PS
2004
THE PATH TO A
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HYDROGEN ECONOMY
HEARING
BEFORE THE
COMMITTEE ON SCIENCE
HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES
ONE HUNDRED EIGHTH CONGRESS
FIRST SESSION
MARCH 5, 2003
Serial No. 108–4
Printed for the use of the Committee on Science
Available via the World Wide Web: http://www.house.gov/science
COMMITTEE ON SCIENCE
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HON. SHERWOOD L. BOEHLERT, New York, Chairman
LAMAR S. SMITH, Texas
CURT WELDON, Pennsylvania
DANA ROHRABACHER, California
JOE BARTON, Texas
KEN CALVERT, California
NICK SMITH, Michigan
ROSCOE G. BARTLETT, Maryland
VERNON J. EHLERS, Michigan
GIL GUTKNECHT, Minnesota
GEORGE R. NETHERCUTT, JR., Washington
FRANK D. LUCAS, Oklahoma
JUDY BIGGERT, Illinois
WAYNE T. GILCHREST, Maryland
W. TODD AKIN, Missouri
TIMOTHY V. JOHNSON, Illinois
MELISSA A. HART, Pennsylvania
JOHN SULLIVAN, Oklahoma
J. RANDY FORBES, Virginia
PHIL GINGREY, Georgia
ROB BISHOP, Utah
MICHAEL C. BURGESS, Texas
JO BONNER, Alabama
TOM FEENEY, Florida
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VACANCY
RALPH M. HALL, Texas
BART GORDON, Tennessee
JERRY F. COSTELLO, Illinois
EDDIE BERNICE JOHNSON, Texas
LYNN C. WOOLSEY, California
NICK LAMPSON, Texas
JOHN B. LARSON, Connecticut
MARK UDALL, Colorado
DAVID WU, Oregon
MICHAEL M. HONDA, California
CHRIS BELL, Texas
BRAD MILLER, North Carolina
LINCOLN DAVIS, Tennessee
SHEILA JACKSON LEE, Texas
ZOE LOFGREN, California
BRAD SHERMAN, California
BRIAN BAIRD, Washington
DENNIS MOORE, Kansas
ANTHONY D. WEINER, New York
JIM MATHESON, Utah
DENNIS A. CARDOZA, California
VACANCY
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C O N T E N T S
March 5, 2003
Witness List
Hearing Charter
Opening Statements
Statement by Representative Sherwood L. Boehlert, Chairman, Committee on Science, U.S. House of Representatives
Written Statement
Statement by Representative Ralph M. Hall, Minority Ranking Member, Committee on Science, U.S. House of Representatives
Statement by Representative Nick Lampson, Member, Committee on Science, U.S. House of Representatives
Prepared Statement by Representative Michael C. Burgess, Member, Committee on Science, U.S. House of Representatives
Prepared Statement by Representative Jerry F. Costello, Member, Committee on Science, U.S. House of Representatives
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Witnesses
Mr. David K. Garman, Assistant Secretary for Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy, U.S. Department of Energy
Oral Statement
Written Statement
Dr. Alan C. Lloyd, 2003 Chairman for the California Fuel Cell Partnership
Oral Statement
Written Statement
Biography
Dr. Joan M. Ogden, Research Scientist, Princeton Environmental Institute
Oral Statement
Written Statement
Biography
Financial Disclosure
Dr. Lawrence D. Burns, Vice President, Research Development and Planning, General Motors
Oral Statement
Written Statement
Biography
Donald P.H. Huberts, Chief Executive Officer, Shell Hydrogen
Oral Statement
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Written Statement
Biography
Discussion
Industry's Opinion on Government Policy Options
DOE's Opinions on Government Policy Options
Sources of Funding for the Hydrogen Initiative
Role of Partnerships in the Hydrogen Initiative
Role of the Office of Science in the Hydrogen Initiative
Safety Concerns and Precautions for Hydrogen Usage
Cost of Hydrogen vs. Natural Gas Pipelines
Direction of Hydrogen Research Efforts
Importance of Hybrids as an Intermediate Step to Fuel Cell Vehicles
Potential Benchmarks for Hydrogen Vehicles and Fossil Fuel Engines
Possibility of the Failure of a Hydrogen Economy and Potential Alternate Plans
Sources of Funding and Cost Estimates
Abundance and Cost of Natural Gas
Written Statement of UTC Power (Submitted by Mr. Larson)
Best Use of Scarce Resources (Submitted by Mr. Akin)
Timetable for Conversion to Alternate Energy Sources
Necessity of Competition to Speed Development
Development of Codes and Standards
Additional Cost of Carbon Sequestration
Ability to be Hydrogen Reliant by 2040
Effect of Policy on the Research Agenda
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Advice From the Panel as to What the Government Needs to Do to Further a Hydrogen Economy
Details of the Decision-making Process at the California Fuel Cell Partnership
Re-allocation of Funds at DOE in Order to Account for the Hydrogen Initiative
Timetable for Stationary vs. Vehicle Fuel Cell Usage
Appendix 1: Answers to Post-Hearing Questions
Mr. David K. Garman, Assistant Secretary for Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy, U.S. Department of Energy
Dr. Alan C. Lloyd, 2003 Chairman for the California Fuel Cell Partnership
Dr. Joan M. Ogden, Research Scientist, Princeton Environmental Institute
Dr. Lawrence D. Burns, Vice President, Research Development and Planning, General Motors
Appendix 2: Additional Material for the Record
Guidance for Transportation Technologies: Fuel Choice for Fuel Cell Vehicles
THE PATH TO A HYDROGEN ECONOMY
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WEDNESDAY, MARCH 5, 2003
House of Representatives,
Committee on Science,
Washington, DC.
The Committee met, pursuant to other business, at 10:30 a.m., in Room 2318 of the Rayburn House Office Building, Hon. Sherwood L. Boehlert (Chairman of the Committee) presiding.
85417i15.eps
HEARING CHARTER
COMMITTEE ON SCIENCE
U.S. HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES
The Path to a
Hydrogen Economy
WEDNESDAY, MARCH 5, 2003
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10:00 A.M.–12:00 P.M.
2318 RAYBURN HOUSE OFFICE BUILDING
Purpose
On Wednesday, March 5, 2003, at 10:00 a.m., the House Science Committee will hold a hearing on the President's Hydrogen Initiative, which is intended to lay the foundation for making the transition to an economy powered by hydrogen. If the widespread use of hydrogen is to become a reality, significant advances must be made, not only in vehicle technology, but also in hydrogen production and the infrastructure necessary to deliver it. The hearing will focus on the barriers to a hydrogen economy, and how the President's Initiative could address those barriers.
The hearing will focus on several overarching questions:
1) What are the greatest hurdles the country will face in converting to a hydrogen economy? To what extent is a federal effort needed to clear the way?
2) What specific and comprehensive goals are needed for the Hydrogen Initiative to ensure the fastest possible development and widespread utilization of hydrogen?
3) Will technology research alone lead to a transition to hydrogen, or will it be necessary to apply policy tools? How should a research and development effort take these policy choices into account?
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Background
In his State of the Union speech, President Bush announced the creation of a new Hydrogen Initiative—a $1.2-billion, five-year research and development program to develop the technology and the hydrogen infrastructure for vehicles whose only emissions would be water vapor.
The Hydrogen Initiative would build on FreedomCAR, a $500 million research program announced last year by the Administration to develop fuel cell powered vehicles. Both programs would be operated by the Department of Energy (DOE).
Under the President's plan, hydrogen would be consumed in automobiles powered not by internal combustion engines but by fuel cells. And because the sources of energy used to produce hydrogen would be domestic sources—like natural gas, coal, or renewable energy—converting to a ''hydrogen economy'' could greatly reduce our nation's dependence on foreign oil. According to the President, the Hydrogen Initiative will lead to a reduction in imported oil of 11 million barrels per day by 2040.
To successfully make the conversion to a hydrogen economy, the FreedomCAR and Hydrogen Initiatives must overcome several serious technical and economic challenges. There is no way, for example, to safely or economically store enough hydrogen on board an automobile to provide a driving range of 300 miles—the minimum that auto companies say consumers expect from a car. Also, if consumers are ever to purchase a hydrogen fuel cell powered car, an infrastructure much like that which exists for gasoline, with a fuel station every few blocks, may be necessary.
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FreedomCAR
The FreedomCAR (for ''Cooperative Automotive Research'') program, upon which the Hydrogen Initiative expands, is a research partnership with Ford, General Motors, and Daimler/Chrysler. FreedomCAR itself arose out of an earlier program, called the Partnership for the Next Generation Vehicles (PNGV), begun under the Clinton Administration. FreedomCAR's goal is to reduce the cost and improve the efficiency of automotive components by 2010.
Hydrogen Roadmap
While FreedomCAR focuses on vehicle-specific technologies, the Hydrogen Initiative focuses on technologies for hydrogen production and the infrastructure necessary to deliver it. The Initiative itself is based on recommendations from the President's National Energy Policy and the National Hydrogen Roadmap.(see footnote 1)
The roadmap was developed at a series of meetings sponsored by DOE that brought together stakeholders from various industries (including the automobile, petroleum, electric power, and fuel cell industries and industrial gas suppliers) and state and federal governments to discuss the challenges for a hydrogen economy. The roadmap, released in November 2002, identifies seven areas presenting specific challenges for a hydrogen economy:
Reducing the cost of hydrogen production.
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Creating an expansive infrastructure to supply hydrogen.
Lowering the cost and improving the performance of methods to store hydrogen.
Reducing the cost of fuel cells.
Developing applications for using hydrogen in consumer products (including not only automobiles, but also stationary fuel cells to power buildings and consumer products such as laptops and cell phones) with the same or better performance as conventional products.
Educating the public about the environmental and energy security benefits and safety concerns.
Developing model codes and standards, for buildings, for example, that would allow for the use of hydrogen as a fuel.
Next Steps
Relying heavily on the hydrogen roadmap, DOE is now creating a detailed research and development plan (which will be reviewed by the National Academy of Sciences). A few details have emerged about the overall focus of the Initiative, which according to DOE will focus on improving the technology in three critical areas: hydrogen storage, hydrogen production, and fuel cell technology.
According to DOE, to make hydrogen competitive with current technologies the Initiative must increase the performance of hydrogen storage technologies by a factor of three, reduce hydrogen production costs by a factor of four, and reduce fuel cell technology costs by a factor of ten. Achieving such goals will require breakthroughs in technology, rather than mere incremental advancements.
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The Initiative will also expand DOE's currently-small programs to educate the public about hydrogen and to develop codes and standards to facilitate the adoption of hydrogen technologies. New codes and standards are particularly important as current regulations treat hydrogen as a hazardous material, and would likely be a significant barrier to widespread adoption.
DOE's goal is to advance hydrogen and fuel cell technologies to the point that would allow industry to make a decision by 2015 as to whether or not to bring those technologies to market.
Issues
While many interest groups, companies, and scientists support the development of technologies to allow the Nation to convert to an economy powered by hydrogen, the President's Initiative has left many questions unanswered.
What effect will the choice of fuel used to create hydrogen have on the environment, economy, and on energy security? Hydrogen is not a source of energy itself—like oil. Rather, like electricity, it must be made from sources of energy. For example, hydrogen can be produced by reforming natural gas or electrolyzing water using electricity generated from any other source of energy, including nuclear power. While hydrogen fuel cells produce no pollution, the use of coal to produce the hydrogen could result in greater emissions of carbon dioxide than combusting traditional fuels. Making hydrogen from electricity produced by wind power, while more expensive, would produce no such emissions. If oil were used, the country would realize little benefit in energy security. And finally, if natural gas were the main source of hydrogen, it could affect the price of other products in which natural gas is used, such as chemicals.
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To assess the overall benefits and costs of hydrogen—and the multiple options for how it may be produced, transported, and stored—a complete life-cycle analysis (also called a well-to-wheels analysis) must be conducted. It is unclear, however, how DOE plans will incorporate such analyses.
Will technological factors alone be enough to provide the incentives needed to convert to a hydrogen-based economy, or will policy changes be necessary? DOE's goal is to reduce the costs of hydrogen technologies so they are competitive with those of traditional fuels. Once the technologies reach this stage, DOE plans to allow industry to commercialize them. But the commercialization of fuel cell vehicles will never occur without the simultaneous development of an infrastructure to deliver hydrogen fuel. And, in a classic ''chicken-and-egg'' conundrum, the necessary infrastructure will never be built without a clear market for the hydrogen. Developing that infrastructure—an undertaking estimated to cost more than $200 billion—and encouraging simultaneous markets to use hydrogen, will clearly require government coordination and involvement.
Even after reducing the other hurdles to hydrogen use, hydrogen is still likely to cost more than conventional fuels unless government policies create significant incentives to use it. Those could include tax and other incentives, but the most effective tool would be through regulations that make clear the social costs (e.g., from pollution, greenhouse gas emissions, dependence of foreign sources of oil) of competing fuels. The Administration has given no sense of how policy tools figure in its plans to move to a hydrogen economy.
It is not clear what role policy considerations will play in DOE's plans to develop hydrogen technologies.
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What is the likelihood all the technical challenges will be met? The number and magnitude of the technical challenges that must be overcome to enable a future economy based on hydrogen fuel are great. How to store hydrogen safely and at high densities presents enormous technical challenges. It is unknown whether it would make more sense to build large, centrally located facilities to produce hydrogen or place smaller hydrogen-production devices closer to the site where it will be used. Also, the capability does not now exist to produce large numbers of fuel cells cost competitively. It is unclear what benefits the Hydrogen Initiative would provide if some of these technical challenges prove insurmountable.
How does the Hydrogen Initiative affect funding for other programs? The FreedomCAR and Hydrogen Initiatives are expected to cost $1.7 billion over five years. The President called for $273 million for these programs in the FY04 request, an increase of $88 million over levels appropriated for existing hydrogen programs in FY03. However, this increase appears to have come largely at the expense of other energy efficiency and renewable energy programs. The two programs cut most significantly, which promote industrial efficiency and the use of biomass, could have near-term impacts on reducing both petroleum usage and emissions. Unless additional funding is provided to renewable energy and energy efficiency programs at DOE in general, the projected increases in the FreedomCAR and Hydrogen Initiatives will likely result in more cuts to such programs.
Legislation
The Committee has introduced legislation (H.R. 238), which includes provisions amending the Spark M. Matsunaga Hydrogen Research, Development and Demonstration Act of 1990 (42 U.S.C. 12401) and the Hydrogen Future Act of 1996 (42 U.S.C. 12403) (introduced and passed under the sole jurisdiction of the Science Committee), whose authorizations have expired. The text of H.R. 238 is largely based on language approved by the House and the Senate conferees as part of last year's energy conference negotiations, but disagreements on other issues in the bill prevented final passage. The witnesses have been asked to provide written comments and suggestions on the hydrogen language in H.R. 238, and be prepared to answer questions on the bill. A brief summary of those provisions is attached to this charter.
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Witnesses
The following witnesses have been confirmed for the hearing:
1. David Garman, Assistant Secretary for Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy, Department of Energy.
2. Alan C. Lloyd, Ph. D., 2003 Chairman, California Fuel Cell Partnership.
3. Joan Ogden, Ph.D., Research Scientist, Princeton Environmental Institute.
4. Dr. Larry Burns, Vice President, Research, Development and Planning, General Motors.
5. Don Huberts, Chief Executive Officer, Shell Hydrogen.
Questions to the Witnesses
The witnesses have been asked to address the following questions in their testimony:
David Garman:
At a briefing earlier this year, the Department indicated that a posture plan for the hydrogen initiative was being developed at DOE. Please update us on the status of the plan. Does the plan contain specific budget structures and program goals? Will market penetration milestones be part of the program, or will the Department limit its strategic planning to technical milestones? What industry and stakeholder input is being solicited for the plan?
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What specific and comprehensive goals are needed for the hydrogen initiative to ensure the fastest possible development and widespread utilization of hydrogen? Does the department intend to create goals for the full range of hydrogen technologies, from production to utilization including stationary and mobile applications?
What additional steps will DOE take to ensure that the benefits of this federally funded research effort reach average consumers in the shortest possible time?
Is funding for the future expansion of the hydrogen initiative expected to come from within the Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy, or from other areas?
Is life-cycle cost analysis being used to evaluate the various hydrogen technology options, such as including the cost of sequestration for hydrogen production from fossil fuels?
Alan C. Lloyd:
What obstacles has the Partnership faced in putting hydrogen vehicles and infrastructure ''on the ground''? How have you overcome these obstacles, and how do you plan to do so in the future?
What elements should be included in the Department of Energy's hydrogen program to both effectively develop hydrogen technologies and promote their adoption?
What are the greatest hurdles the country will face in converting to a hydrogen economy? To what extent is a federal effort needed to clear the way?
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Joan Ogden:
What are the most significant barriers to the widespread adoption of hydrogen as an energy carrier?
You have written that, ''Economics alone are unlikely to lead to a switch from current fuels to hydrogen.. . .If a hydrogen economy is implemented, it will be in response to strong political will.'' (From p. 74 of your Physics Today article). What types of policy tools will be necessary to ensure a transition to hydrogen? How should a research and development plan take these policy choices into account? When do we need to consider these policy options in order for them to be effective?
Larry Burns:
In what time frame does GM expect hydrogen technology to become widely available? Does GM expect technology advances to make hydrogen technology cost-competitive with conventional technology? When?
What technologies, including non-vehicle technologies, does GM see as the most promising for near-term use of hydrogen? Does GM plan to market any of those technologies?
What does GM see as the federal role in the conversion to a hydrogen economy? How much is GM's own research dependent on federal involvement in the hydrogen research and development effort?
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The Department of Energy has indicated that the President's hydrogen initiative will allow industry to make a go/no-go decision on hydrogen technologies around 2015. Do you agree? What technical and policy factors will most influence GM's decisions on whether to rely on hydrogen technologies?
Donald Huberts:
In what time frame does Shell Hydrogen expect hydrogen technology to become widely available? Do you expect technology advances to make hydrogen technology cost-competitive with conventional technology, and, if so, when? What are the greatest hurdles the U.S. faces in converting to a hydrogen economy? Can such a conversion occur absent government incentives or regulation?
What technologies, including non-vehicle technologies, does Shell Hydrogen see as the most promising for near-term use of hydrogen? Does Shell Hydrogen plan to market any of those technologies?
What can the U.S. Federal Government do to facilitate the development of and transition to a hydrogen economy? Is the Department of Energy's Hydrogen Initiative adequate? To what degree does Shell's own investments in hydrogen R&D depend upon the involvement of the U.S. Federal Government?
Chairman BOEHLERT. It is a pleasure to welcome everyone here this morning to the Congress' first hearing on the President's Hydrogen Initiative. I think the President deserves applause from across the political and ideological spectrum for his forward looking proposal. Whenever anyone thinks we should be doing right now to promote clean air and energy independence, we should all be able to agree that moving forward toward a hydrogen economy is what we need to strive for in the future. And the President has signaled in a forceful and prominent way that he is willing to commit the resources to help develop the technology for a hydrogen economy.
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The Hydrogen Initiative is the kind of forward looking investment that the Science Committee has always promoted on a bipartisan basis. I look forward to adding the language to authorize the initiative in the Science Committee's portion of the comprehensive Energy Bill that is now slated to come before the House in the first week of April.
We have tentatively scheduled the Science Committee's markup of our portion of that bill, known as H.R. 238 on March 20.
I should note that industry also seems seriously committed to research and development work on hydrogen. I am pleased with the announcement that GM and Shell have just made about their joint efforts to develop and demonstrate hydrogen fueling and vehicles. We need to see how hydrogen might work in everyday settings in the real world.
But our enthusiastic support for the Hydrogen Initiative doesn't mean we don't have any questions about it. Both the Administration and Congress are going to have to do a lot more work to figure out exactly how to shape the Initiative. Here are some of the key questions we need to ask.
How will we pay for the incentive Initiative? Much of next year's proposed funding comes from cutting other renewable energy R&D programs. That is not acceptable.
What specific areas will the Initiative focus on and who will perform the research? We will have to choose among hydrogen sources and among different technologies. And we will have to decide where the federal contribution can do the most good.
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What kinds of demonstration projects will truly advance the transition to a hydrogen economy? The projects need to be true tests of the technology, not one-of-a-kind distractions that never get replicated.
What policy tools will need to be deployed to enable the transition to a hydrogen economy and how will policy decisions affect the nature of the research that gets conducted now? No transportation revolution in American history has occurred without massive government involvement, whether that meant building canals, giving land to the railroads, developing aircraft and airports, or constructing the interstate highway system to name just a few examples. It would be absurd to think that hydrogen will be an exception.
I think that last point is critical. The magic of the marketplace alone is not going to create a hydrogen economy, at least not anytime soon. It addition to the huge technical hurdles, switching to hydrogen may entail enormous costs. We need to start thinking now about what policies will be necessary later because that may help determine which research areas the government might best invest in, and there must be investment.
Moreover, the regulatory climate will have an enormous impact on the timing and nature of the hydrogen economy. Hydrogen will be a cost-competitive fuel in the coming decades only if one takes into account the social costs of current fuels, such as the pollution they generate and the dependence on foreign oil they promote.
And the nature of future regulations will likely effect what sources of hydrogen we chose, and whether concerns about greenhouse gases have to be factored in to the design of hydrogen technologies. If we are going to make the right decisions about our research dollars now, we have to have a better idea of what our environmental concerns will be later.
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So we have got a lot of tough thinking ahead of us. I am pleased that we have such a distinguished panel with us to help us get started. And I invite the panelists to take their places at the witness stand. Mr. Hall.
[The prepared statement of Mr. Boehlert follows:]
PREPARED STATEMENT OF CHAIRMAN SHERWOOD BOEHLERT
It's a pleasure to welcome everyone here this morning to the Congress' first hearing on the President's Hydrogen Initiative.
I think the President deserves applause from across the political and ideological spectrum for his forward-looking proposal. Whatever anyone thinks we should be doing right now to promote clean air and energy independence, we should all be able to agree that moving toward a hydrogen economy is what we need to strive for in the future. And the President has signaled in a forceful and prominent way that he is willing to commit the resources to help develop the technology for a hydrogen economy.
The Hydrogen Initiative is the kind of forward-looking investment that the Science Committee has always promoted on a bipartisan basis. I look forward to adding language to authorize the Initiative in the Science Committee's portion of the comprehensive Energy Bill that is now slated to come before the House in the first week of April. We have tentatively scheduled the Science Committee's markup of our portion of the bill, known as H.R. 238, on March 20.
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I should note that industry also seems seriously committed to research and development work on hydrogen. I'm pleased with the announcement that GM and Shell have just made about their joint efforts to develop and demonstrate hydrogen fueling and vehicles. We need to see how hydrogen might work in everyday settings in the real world.
But our enthusiastic support for the Hydrogen Initiative doesn't mean that we don't have any questions about it. Both the Administration and the Congress are going to have to do a lot more work to figure out exactly how to shape the Initiative.
Here are some of the key questions we need to ask:
1) How will we pay for the Initiative? Much of next year's proposed funding comes from cutting other renewable energy R&D programs. That's not acceptable.
2) What specific areas will the Initiative focus on and who will perform the research? We will have to choose among hydrogen sources and among different technologies, and we will have to decide where the federal contribution can do the most good.
3) What kinds of demonstration projects will truly advance the transition to a hydrogen economy? The projects need to be true tests of the technology, not one-of-a-kind distractions that never get replicated.
4) What policy tools will need to be deployed to enable the transition to a hydrogen economy and how will policy decisions affect the nature of the research that gets conducted now? No transportation revolution in American history has occurred without massive government involvement, whether that meant building canals, giving land to the railroads, developing aircraft and airports, or constructing the interstate highway system to name just a few examples. It would be absurd to think that hydrogen will be an exception.
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I think this last point is critical. The magic of the marketplace alone is not going to create a hydrogen economy, at least not anytime soon. In addition to the huge technical hurdles, switching to hydrogen may entail enormous costs. We need to start thinking now about what policies will be necessary later because that may help determine which research areas the government might best invest in.
Moreover, the regulatory climate will have an enormous impact on the timing and nature of the hydrogen economy. Hydrogen will be a cost-competitive fuel in the coming decades only if one takes into account the social costs of current fuels, such as the pollution they generate and the dependence on foreign oil they promote.
And the nature of future regulations will likely affect what sources of hydrogen we choose and whether concerns about greenhouse gases have to be factored into the design of hydrogen technologies. If we're going to make the right decisions about our research dollars now we have to have a better idea of what our environmental concerns will be later.
So, we've got a lot of tough thinking ahead of us. I'm pleased that we have such a distinguished panel with us today to get us started. Mr. Hall.
Mr. HALL. Mr. Chairman and Members of the Committee, thank you. It seems like it is only last week that we were in conference on energy legislation after more than a year and a half of working out how to get a comprehensive match on energy policy. These efforts failed, but they didn't fail because of any lack of duties of this committee. They didn't fail because of any lack of duty of the House itself. We passed the Bill, sent it over to them; we were in Session for day and night for a long, long time and came up with a zero. I think that legislation again this time, the very comprehensive research and development section of that bill could become the centerpiece of the legislation had it passed. And one good thing about that bill was that we have a President and a Vice President that understand energy. And we have a President and a—a President who will sign that type of legislation if we get it to him.
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So, I look forward to working with you in the weeks ahead to recreate the legislation with the hope and expectation that this time we are going to put a bill with their provisions in it and on the President's desk. Today, we have a hearing on hydrogen and it is appropriate that we start there since the President has announced new initiatives in that area.
Last year, the Department of Energy rolled out the FreedomCAR Program to develop the technologies necessary to produce the hydrogen powered vehicles. We were concerned about the Department not paying sufficient attention to the infrastructure issues, and apparently they heard us because this year they are rolling out infrastructure programs, the Freedom Fuel Program.
It is clear to me that without a hydrogen fuel infrastructure, these vehicles will never hit the streets, and we will never be able to realize that all the emissions savings possible unless we make the commitment to develop a hydrogen infrastructure.
There are huge unanswered questions associated with the proposed infrastructure. Many of these questions, as you have stated very well, will involve costs and safety. Other questions center around how it is going to be setup. For example, will we rely on pipelines, or tank trucks, or tank cars to transport the hydrogen? Will it be distributed on a more centralized system to be developed?
We hope to get into many of these type of questions with the fine panel we have here today. Before I yield time to Mr. Lampson, I want to thank the panel for being with us today and on such short notice. We look forward to receiving your testimony and appreciate your helping us to understand better these complexes. With that, Mr. Chairman, I need to yield just a minute or so, or two minutes, or five minutes, or 10 minutes to Nick Lampson for any comments he may have. I ask your unanimous consent that the rest of the Committee urge you to grant that permission.
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Chairman BOEHLERT. In the spirit of bipartisan cooperation, I am pleased to grant it.
Mr. HALL. After all of my things I said, I get a little something out of that, don't I?
Chairman BOEHLERT. The gentleman's time is extended for two additional minutes.
Mr. LAMPSON. How about 30 seconds will be fine, Mr. Ranking Chairman; I thank you. And Mr. Chairman, I appreciate the time. I come from Southeast Texas, which has sometimes been called the energy capital of the world, so it is a real privilege to be able to serve as a ranking Member on the Science Energy Committee. And I am particularly pleased with what we are getting ready to listen to this morning on the use of hydrogen, because we do produce so much hydrogen in that area. As we learn how to distribute this across the country I think it is going to be something extremely important for that area that continues to be the energy capital of the world.
So I just wanted to add my thanks and appreciation for the panel to be coming, and I look forward to what you have to say. And I yield back my time. Thank you, Mr. Chairman.
[The prepared statement of Mr. Burgess follows:]
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PREPARED STATEMENT OF REPRESENTATIVE MICHAEL C. BURGESS
Thank you Mr. Chairman, and thank you for having this hearing.
With global oil reserves low after a two-month Venezuelan strike and trepidation about the effect on oil prices of a possible war with Iraq, gas prices are extremely high. The United States is especially vulnerable to international price fluctuations since we import approximately 55 percent of the oil we consume daily from foreign sources. Americans are reminded of the need for energy independence every time we pay exorbitant prices to fill up our cars.
President Bush, during his State-of-the-Union Address, proposed a bold FreedomCAR and Hydrogen Fuel Initiative and estimated that the first car driven by a child born today could be powered by hydrogen technology. The President's budget would allow $1.2 billion in research funding for hydrogen-powered automobiles and hydrogen fuel technology.
The goal of this new FreedomCAR program is to make hydrogen fuel cell technology a viable, affordable and convenient technology that we can use to power our automobiles. There are many benefits, including a cleaner environment, the possibility that research can spur further technological innovation, and especially greater energy independence.
As a member of both the Science and Transportation and Infrastructure Committees, I recognize the unique challenges that we face as we discuss the possibility of converting into a hydrogen-fueled economy. We must discuss the appropriate role for the Federal Government in this process and examine our focus on FreedomCAR and hydrogen-based infrastructure, but we must do so within the context of a comprehensive energy policy. Our approach to energy policy must be comprehensive in nature so that we ensure achievement of our goal of national energy independence. In addition, we must also take seriously our responsibility to ensure that taxpayer dollars are spent wisely and must keep this in mind as we discuss the President's Hydrogen Initiative.
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So, again, Mr. Chairman, I thank you for this hearing in which we can address some our concerns.
[The prepared statement of Mr. Costello follows:]
PREPARED STATEMENT OF REPRESENTATIVE JERRY F. COSTELLO
Good morning. I want to thank the witnesses for appearing before our committee to discuss the President's Hydrogen Initiative, which is intended to lay the foundation necessary for making the transition to an economy powered by hydrogen. The President's Hydrogen Initiative envisions the transformation of the Nation's transportation fleet from a dependence on foreign oil and petroleum to the use of clean-burning hydrogen. Today, most hydrogen in the United States and about half of the world's hydrogen supply is produced from natural gas.
However, the President plans to change this. On February 27, 2003, the President announced his Integrated Sequestration and Hydrogen Research Initiative entitled FutureGen. This project is a $1 billion government/industry partnership to design, build, and operate a nearly emission-free, coal-fired electric and hydrogen production plant. The prototype plant will serve as a large-scale engineering laboratory for testing and will expand the options for producing hydrogen from coal.
As the Administration begins to consider locations for the new plant, I would hope they would consider Southern Illinois. The region is rich in high-sulfur coal reserves and the Coal Center at Southern Illinois University Carbondale (SIU–C) has been doing extensive work with hydrogen and coal. In addition, the geology of the region is well suited to the carbon-trapping technology to be developed. Carbon dioxide could be captured and sequestered in underground geological formations called aquifers. I am particularly interested in hearing from our witnesses the benefits of this new program and a timeline or target goal for expecting results.
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A greater reliance on hydrogen requires modification of our existing energy infrastructure to ensure greater availability of this new fuel source. The President's Initiative has left many questions unanswered, but I am hopeful our witnesses here today will provide more insight into the funding and technology challenges facing the Hydrogen Initiative.
I again thank the witnesses for being with us today and providing testimony to our committee.
Chairman BOEHLERT. Thank you, very much. With that, let us get right off with our very distinguished panel. This is the first hearing any place on Capitol Hill about this hydrogen initiative, and we have an expert panel of witnesses that I look forward to hearing from, consisting of David Garman, Assistant Secretary for Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy at the U.S. Department of Energy, Dr. Alan C. Lloyd, 2003 Chairman for the California Fuel Cell Partnership, Dr. Lloyd. Dr. Joan Ogden, Research Scientist, Princeton Environmental Institute. Dr. Larry Burns, Vice-President, Research Development and Planning for General Motors. And Don Huberts, Chief Executive Officer for Shell Hydrogen. We look forward to your testimony. We ask that you summarize in five minutes or so. The Chair is not going to be arbitrary on that. This is too important a subject to let 300 seconds be sufficient to have you say what you need to say to all of us, but we look forward to a very valuable and informative hearing. We start with you, Mr. Garman.
STATEMENT OF DAVID K. GARMAN, ASSISTANT SECRETARY FOR ENERGY EFFICIENCY AND RENEWABLE ENERGY, U.S. DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY
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Mr. GARMAN. Thank you, Mr. Chairman, and thank you for this opportunity to discuss the advantages of a hydrogen energy economy and the pathway that gets us there. We envision a day when energy can be affordable, abundant, reliable, virtually pollution free, and carbon neutral. And the President's National Energy Plan explicitly recognizes the role that hydrogen can play.
The President's Plan was released in May 2001, and important elements of that Plan related to hydrogen have been expanded upon with the FreedomCAR Partnership, announced in January 2002, the President's Hydrogen Fuel Initiative announced during his recent State of the Union Address, and the FutureGEN zero-emission coal fired electricity and hydrogen power plant initiative announced just last week. Mr. Chairman, your Committee has really demonstrated some key leadership on hydrogen. And by my count, I think I have appeared five times on hydrogen or hydrogen related technology in the last 19 months.
Chairman BOEHLERT. I give you frequent appearance points.
Mr. GARMAN. With your guidance and under your Oversight, we have worked with industry, academia, the environmental community, and other stakeholders over the last two years to build a strong analytical foundation for these initiatives. And if I could just put it bluntly another way, these ideas were not cobbled together on the way to the podium for the State of the Union message. Instead, they converged to make possible a future where the primary energy carriers in our economy are hydrogen and electricity, eventually generated using technologies that do not emit any pollutants or carbon dioxide.
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We don't want to become overly dependent on any one method of generating electricity or hydrogen, and the advantage of hydrogen is that it can be produced from a variety of primary energy sources, including renewables, nuclear, and fossil energy. And the question why hydrogen and why now? One real driver for change is the situation that confronts us with regard to oil dependence in the transportation sector. The current gap between total U.S. consumption and net production-able oil is roughly 11 million barrels per day. And this is a gap that we are unable to close with either regulation, or new domestic production, or even both. Although promoting efficiency in the use of oil and finding new domestic sources of oil are important short-term undertakings, under the long-term a petroleum free option is eventually required.
That is why the President, during his State of the Union Address, announced a ground breaking plan to transfer our nation's energy future from one dependent on foreign petroleum to one that utilizes hydrogen, which is the most abundant item in the universe. He has challenged us to be bold and innovative, to change our dependence on foreign energy, and to do this through hydrogen fuel cells.
So our work is underway in earnest. And fortunately, we are not starting from scratch. We have a technology roadmap, a recently completed fuel cell report to Congress, regular progress reporting, and an internal posture plan, all of which have been in development for the past year or longer. Many on this panel have been participants in the development of some of these plans. And frankly, we realize that this is an initiative that is beyond the political time horizon of this Administration, and we have to lay a solid foundation for future Administrations that follow. So we want to be transparent and accountable in our planning, and we expect to achieve results.
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I will attempt to summarize these documents in just two slides.
[Slide]
Mr. GARMAN. First, we envision the transition of a hydrogen economy occurring in four phases. In phase one, government and private organizations will research, develop, and demonstrate critical path technologies prior to investing heavily in infrastructure. This phase is now underway and will enable the industry to make a decision on commercialization on vehicles in 2015. The Fiscal Year 2004 Budget currently before Congress currently is consistent with the completion of a technology R&D phase by 2015.
In phase two, transition of the marketplace could begin as early as 2010 for applications such as portable power and some stationary applications, and even earlier in rich applications where hydrogen related technologies meet or exceed consumer requirements. If an industry decision to commercialize fuel cell vehicles is made in 2015, mass market penetration of these vehicles can occur in 2020. As these markets become established, government can foster further growth by playing the role of early adopter and by creating policies that stimulate the market.
As markets are established, this leads to phase three, expansion of markets and infrastructure. The start of phase three is consistent with the positive commercialization decision in the year 2015. That will attract investment and infrastructure for fuel cell manufacturing, hydrogen production and delivery.
And phase four, which will begin around 2025 is the realization of the hydrogen vision, when consumer requirements will be met or exceeded, national benefits in terms of energy security and improved environmental quality are being achieved, and industry can achieve adequate return on investment and compete globally.
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If the transition unfolds as we have envisioned, this graph illustrates what happens to oil demand in the light duty vehicle category and when it happens. This scenario results in 11 million barrels per day by 2040 compared to what would otherwise be consumed in that year. We currently import today between 10 and 11 million barrels per day.
Mr. Chairman, the path to a hydrogen economy is guided by a strong national commitment by the President and by leaders in Congress, a diversified technology portfolio, and an approach that relies on public/private partnership. We are excited about the prospects for this future, and we look forward to working with Congress, and this committee, and the private sector to make it happen. Thank you, Mr. Chairman.
[The prepared statement of Mr. Garman follows:]
PREPARED STATEMENT OF DAVID K. GARMAN
Mr. Chairman, Members of the Committee, I appreciate the opportunity to testify before you today on ''The Path to a Hydrogen Economy.''
Energy is the life-blood of our nation. It is the mainstay of our standard of living, our economy, and our national security. The President's National Energy Plan, entitled ''Reliable, Affordable and Environmentally Sound Energy for America's Future,'' is the blueprint for the energy future we seek, and it makes several recommendations with regard to hydrogen. Specifically, it directs the Secretary to develop next generation energy technology, including hydrogen; it recommends that our research and development (R&D) programs related to hydrogen and fuel cells be integrated; and it recommends that legislation reauthorizing the Hydrogen Energy Act enjoy the support of the Administration.
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Since the release of the President's energy plan in May 2001, the President and Secretary Abraham have unveiled several exciting new initiatives related to hydrogen. Most notable are the FreedomCAR partnership announced in January 2002; the President's Hydrogen Fuel Initiative announced during the State of the Union address in January 2003; and the ''FutureGEN'' zero-emission coal-fired electricity and hydrogen power plant initiative announced just last week. Each of these initiatives plays a particularly important role in a hydrogen energy future. Each will help make possible a future in which the principal ''energy carriers'' are hydrogen and electricity, eventually generated using technologies that do not emit any pollutants or carbon dioxide.
Our present energy picture is significantly different than a potential hydrogen energy future. A diagram developed by Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory [Figure 1] represents the current ''energy flows'' in the U.S. economy. It should not be regarded as a highly precise representation of these flows, but it is extremely useful in helping policy-makers visualize complex energy data.
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The primary energy inputs, including coal, oil, natural gas, nuclear, and renewable energy are shown on the left. The relative sizes of the lines or ''pipes'' represent the relative contributions of the primary energy inputs, the impacts of energy conversion, and the end uses.
Using this it is easier to visualize how the energy flows move toward electricity generation or through the different sectors of our economy. The diagram makes clear some inescapable features of our current energy economy:
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We enjoy a diversity of primary energy inputs, although there are imbalances;
We are heavily dependent on oil, coal, and natural gas;
The transportation sector is almost entirely dependent on oil, a majority of which is imported;
A large amount of energy is rejected or wasted, and transportation is the least efficient of the three sectors of our energy economy;
Looking more specifically at oil as we do in the next graph [Figure 2] we see that there is an imbalance between petroleum demand for transportation and domestic production, and that automobiles and light trucks are the dominant driver behind that demand.
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In the early 1990s, the petroleum required just by our highway vehicles surpassed the amount produced domestically. The ''gap'' between production and transportation demand is growing—and is projected to keep growing. The current gap between total U.S. consumption and net production of oil is roughly 11 million barrels per day. Promoting efficiency in the use of oil, and finding new domestic sources of oil, are both important short-term undertakings. But over the long-term, a petroleum-free option is eventually required.
Our energy challenge is further complicated by another important factor—the pollutants and carbon dioxide emissions resulting from our use of energy. We have made tremendous progress in reducing pollutant emissions from our cars and trucks as well as our stationary power sources, and we will continue to make incremental gains through regulatory approaches such as the Tier II standards. But for true efficiency gains, we must reach to develop a wholly new approach to energy.
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In his recent State of the Union address, President Bush announced a groundbreaking plan to transform our nation's energy future from one dependent on foreign petroleum, to one that utilizes the most abundant element in the universe—hydrogen.
Hydrogen can be produced from diverse domestic sources, freeing us from a reliance on foreign imports for the energy we use at home. Hydrogen can fuel ultra-clean internal combustion engines, which would reduce auto emissions by more than 99 percent. And when hydrogen is used to power fuel cell vehicles, it will do so with more than twice the efficiency of today's gasoline engines—and with none of the harmful air emissions. In fact, fuel cells' only byproducts are pure water and some waste heat.
But ultimate success in the mass-market penetration of hydrogen fuel cell vehicles requires a hydrogen-based infrastructure that performs as well as the petroleum-based infrastructure we now have.
Our current gasoline/hydrocarbon infrastructure has been forged in a competitive market. It is ubiquitous and remarkably efficient. It can deliver refined petroleum products that began as crude oil half a world away to your neighborhood for less than the cost of milk, drinking water, or many other liquid products you can buy at the supermarket. We are currently bound to that infrastructure. We have no alternative. Eventually replacing it with something different will be extremely difficult. But that is what we must do if we expect to achieve success with the FreedomCAR partnership. Drivers must be able to go anywhere in America and to refuel their hydrogen-powered vehicle before they will be comfortable purchasing one.
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That is why the President, in his State of the Union address, proposed that we in the Federal Government significantly increase our spending on hydrogen infrastructure R&D, including hydrogen production, storage, and delivery technologies, as well as fuel cells. Over the next five years, we plan to spend an estimated $1.7 billion on the FreedomCAR partnership and Hydrogen Fuel Initiative, $1.2 billion of which is for the Hydrogen Fuel Initiative, which includes resources for work on hydrogen and fuel cells. Of the $1.2 billion figure, $720 million is ''new money.''
We will not build the infrastructure. The private sector will do that as the business case becomes clear. But as we develop the technologies needed by the vehicles, we will also develop the technologies required by the infrastructure. In cooperation with DOT, we will convene the parties needed for technology partnerships, we will collaborate on the needed codes and standards, and we will promote international cooperation in this effort.
There is growing worldwide interest in hydrogen and fuel cell technology, as reflected in the dramatic increase in public and private spending since the mid-1990s in the U.S. and elsewhere. We estimate current investments across the U.S. government agencies to be well over $200 million, about $120 million of which is for hydrogen and polymer electrolyte membrane (PEM) R&D. In 2003, the Japanese government nearly doubled its fuel cell R&D budget to $268 million, and in March 2003 will launch a joint government/industry demonstration of hydrogen fuel cell vehicles, including the deployment of more than seven new hydrogen refueling stations. Governments and companies in Canada, Europe, and Asia are also investing heavily in hydrogen research, development and demonstration. For example, ten new hydrogen refueling stations will be built in Europe over the next few years to fuel hydrogen-powered buses. By comparison, the U.S. currently has approximately ten hydrogen refueling stations, and plans several more as appropriate to fund limited ''learning'' demonstrations to help identify R&D needs to make hydrogen and fuel cell technologies cost competitive and technologically viable.
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Understandably, there is an aspect of economic competitiveness to all this as well. A recent report by PricewaterhouseCoopers projects global demand for all fuel cell products (in portable, stationary, and transportation power applications) to reach $46 billion per year by 2011 and to grow to more than $2.5 trillion per year in 2021. The United States should strive to be a leader in hydrogen and fuel cell technology development and commercialization in order to secure a competitive position for future energy technology innovations, new products, and service offerings. Without a change in direction, the more than 19 million barrels per day of petroleum projected to be imported to the U.S. by 2025 will cost our economy an estimated $188 billion per year (based on EIA projections) in real 2001 dollars.
Consistent with the questions posed by the Committee in its letter of February 20, 2003, I will now elaborate further on our approach, the benefits we expect, the technology challenges we face, the timing of the transition toward a hydrogen economy, and the budget we believe is needed to meet our goals.
Approach
In November 2001, about the time I was first testifying before this committee on the subject of hydrogen, we began a formal hydrogen vision and ''roadmapping'' effort. Working with industry, stakeholders and academia, the Department developed a national approach for moving toward a hydrogen economy—a solution that holds the potential to provide virtually limitless clean, safe, secure, affordable, and reliable energy from domestic resources.
To realize this vision, the Nation must develop advanced technologies for hydrogen production, delivery, storage, conversion, and applications. The National Hydrogen Energy Technology Roadmap, which we released in November 2002, identifies the technological research, development, and demonstration steps required to make a successful transition to a hydrogen economy.
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This past fall, the Department also developed an internal Hydrogen Posture Plan (Plan) to support the President's Hydrogen Fuel Initiative. The Plan identifies specific technology goals and milestones that would accelerate hydrogen and fuel cell development to enable an industry commercialization decision by 2015. My Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy led the development of the plan in collaboration with the Office of Fossil Energy, the Office of Nuclear Energy, the Office of Science and the DOE's Office of Management, Budget, and Evaluation.
The Plan integrates the Department's planning and budgeting for program activities that will help turn the concept of a hydrogen-based economy into reality. More specifically, the Plan outlines the Department's role in hydrogen energy R&D in accordance with the National Hydrogen Energy Roadmap. The Plan is currently in draft and under policy review. The development of the plan could not directly involve industry and other non-government stakeholders because of the inclusion of fiscal year 2004 through 2008 budget planning. Their input to other efforts such as the Hydrogen Roadmap, the Hydrogen Vision, the FreedomCAR Partnership Plan, and the Fuel Cell Report to Congress (which included four workshops with industry) has been considered in the development of the Posture Plan.
To ensure that the Department continues to conduct its hydrogen research in a coordinated, focused, and efficient manner, the DOE Hydrogen Working Group that developed the Posture Plan will continue to function. This Working Group will be chartered to meet regularly and perform the following functions:
Evaluate the progress of the Department's hydrogen and related activities with regard to milestones and performance goals;
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Strengthen information exchange on technical developments;
Help ensure that the various activities (e.g., budgeting, execution, evaluation, and reporting) remain well coordinated;
Provide suggestions for management improvements and stronger technical performance; and,
Coordinate, through the Office of Science and Technology Policy, with other agencies (e.g., DOD, DOT, NASA, Commerce) conducting similar R&D activities to ensure our efforts our complementary and not duplicative.
In anticipation of an energy bill this year, the Department is also preparing to form a Hydrogen Technology Advisory Committee (HTAC). This advisory group, composed of a diverse group of experts from industry, academia, and other stakeholders, would provide input to the Secretary.
My testimony today draws heavily from DOE's planning efforts including the Posture Plan, the FreedomCAR Partnership Plan, the Hydrogen Roadmap, and the Fuel Cell Report to Congress. These documents describe how DOE will integrate its ongoing and future hydrogen R&D activities into a focused Hydrogen Program. The program will integrate technology for hydrogen production (from fossil, nuclear, and renewable resources), infrastructure development (including delivery and storage), fuel cells, and other technologies supporting future hydrogen fueled vehicles. Successful implementation of the Administration's integrated plans and activities is critical to the FreedomCAR partnership and Hydrogen Fuel Initiative. Coordinating hydrogen activities within DOE and among the federal agencies will improve the effectiveness of our research, development, and demonstration (RD&D) activities and strengthen its contribution to achieving the technical milestones on the road to a hydrogen economy.
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Benefits
The Administration has committed to a large investment in hydrogen and fuel cells because it is convinced that the potential benefits of moving to a hydrogen economy are enormous. We can eventually eliminate our dependence on foreign energy sources. We can also maintain our transportation freedoms, the mobility that is so important to our quality of life and healthy economy. We can dramatically improve our air quality by eliminating polluting emissions from vehicles. Finally, hydrogen-powered vehicles can benefit our economy by reducing the financial drain associated with foreign energy purchases and by sustaining a strong international competitiveness in the transportation arena.
The development of hydrogen and fuel cells promises clear economic and environmental benefits to the United States. Diversifying our energy resources, particularly through the expansion of hydrogen in transportation, will stimulate new markets and strengthen U.S. flexibility and economic resiliency in many other sectors. Achievement of hydrogen technology goals, complemented by supportive regulations and policies, will pave the way for hydrogen's rapid growth as an energy carrier over the next several decades. The full extent of life-cycle cost and environmental benefits will become clearer as development and validation progresses with respect to the various production, conversion and distribution options.
To be successful we must make sure that we not only overcome the technical barriers, but also that these technologies are affordable and accessible to the average consumer. It will only be through a sweeping, market-driven replacement of current technologies that the desired societal benefits can be reached.
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Essential to rapid success and full technology utilization is the involvement of those industries that will have critical roles in the decisions to commercialize and in the manufacture of the necessary products. The development effort is shared by industry, both the automotive manufacturers and the energy companies, through their participation in the FreedomCAR Partnership and in the Hydrogen Fuel Initiative.
Energy Diversity
Hydrogen can be supplied in large quantities from domestic fossil, nuclear and renewable resources. This mix of currently available and developing technology could provide a transition from traditional to next generation energy technologies benefiting society with reliable and affordable energy in the near- and long-term. Hydrogen and fuel cells can catalyze the establishment and utilization of a viable transportation market for nuclear energy, domestic coal supplies, and renewables. [Carbon capture and sequestration can further reduce emissions from high carbon sources of hydrogen such as coal.] The fact remains, though, that our nation possesses the necessary resources to produce large quantities of hydrogen.
Transportation
Every day, eight million barrels of oil are required to fuel the over 200 million vehicles that constitute our light duty transportation fleet. By 2025, the Nation's light vehicle energy consumption is projected to grow to as much as 14 million barrels per day of petroleum or its energy equivalent. Fuel cell vehicles could provide more than twice the efficiency of conventional vehicles. Figure 3 shows a projection of the possible effect of introducing hydrogen-fueled vehicles on our nation's oil consumption. With the assumptions used in this scenario, hydrogen fueled fuel cell vehicles could make dramatic reductions in petroleum use. This scenario results in 11 million barrels per day savings by 2040 compared to what would otherwise be consumed in that year.
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The Federal Government's role is to accelerate hydrogen and fuel cell development to enable industry to make a commercialization decision by 2015. But the manufacture and marketing of hybrid, fuel cell or other advanced vehicles will be industry's responsibility. The government's role, however, can be broader than the removal of technical barriers and the reduction of technology costs. In cooperation with DOT, we can also contribute to the pace of both industry and market acceptance by overcoming institutional barriers such as those associated with achieving common codes and standards necessary for safe use of hydrogen and fuel cell technologies.
Fuel Cells for Stationary Power
Hydrogen can also be used in stationary fuel cells, engines and turbines to produce power and heat. In order to meet our growing electrical demands, the Energy Information Administration estimated that electricity generation will have to increase by two percent per year (EIA Annual Energy Outlook 2002). At this rate, 1.5 trillion kWh of additional electricity generation capacity will be needed by 2020. Along with aging infrastructure, requirements for reliable premium power, and market deregulation, this increasing demand opens the door for hydrogen power systems and potential societal benefits. For example, using ten million tons of hydrogen per year to provide 150 billion kWh of the Nation's electricity (just ten percent of the added generation) could avoid 20 million tons per year of carbon dioxide emissions. DOE will also support work in the area of fuel cells for portable power. While not important to overall petroleum reduction, these units will provide early operating and manufacturing experience, and should contribute to the reduction of fuel cell cost for PEM fuel cells.
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Technology Challenges
Let me now review the challenges to be faced and how these challenges are to be met. Achieving our vision will require a combination of technological breakthroughs, market acceptance, and large investments in a national hydrogen energy infrastructure. Success will not happen overnight, or even over years, but rather over decades; it will require an evolutionary process that phases hydrogen in as the technologies and their markets are ready. Success will also require that the technologies to utilize hydrogen fuel and the availability of hydrogen occur simultaneously.
Some of the significant hurdles to be cleared include:
Lower by a factor of four the cost of producing and delivering hydrogen;
Develop more compact, light weight, lower cost, safe, and efficient hydrogen storage systems that will enable a greater than 300 mile vehicle range;
Lower by a factor of ten the cost of materials for advanced conversion technologies, especially fuel cells;
More effective and lower cost (by a factor of at least ten) carbon-capture and sequestration processes (a separate program critical to fossil-based production of hydrogen);
Designs and materials that maximize the safety of hydrogen use; and,
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The development of needed codes and standards as well as the education of consumers relative to the use of hydrogen.
The Department has drafted a work breakdown structure associated with each of the critical areas identified in the Roadmap (production, delivery, storage, conversion, and end-use), and has identified milestones and decision points that are part of the effort. Examples of key program milestones that support FreedomCAR and achievement of a hydrogen economy include the following:
Onboard hydrogen storage systems with a six percent capacity by weight by 2010; more aggressive goals are being established for 2015;
Hydrogen production at an untaxed price equivalent to $1.50 per gallon of gasoline at the pump by 2010;
Polymer electrolyte-membrane automotive fuel cells that cost $45 per kilowatt by 2010 and $30 per kilowatt by 2015 and meet 100,000 miles of service life; and,
Zero emission coal plants that produce hydrogen and power, with carbon capture and sequestration, at $0.79 per kilogram at the plant gate.
In the near future, we plan on partnering with energy companies to establish more specific goals related to technology and components needed to produce and distribute hydrogen using various fossil, nuclear and renewable pathways. In this exercise, we will be looking at the full range of hydrogen technology areas covered in the Roadmap.
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Advances in other technologies will also be necessary for the ability of a hydrogen-fueled vehicle to realize its full potential. These include:
Improved energy storage, (e.g., batteries that are more durable, cheaper, and better performing);
More efficient and cost effective electric motors;
Inexpensive and more effective power electronics; and,
Better materials for lighter, but strong, structural members.
These technologies will enable hydrogen-fueled vehicles to be more efficient, and to help lower the vehicle cost to the consumer.
In the near- to mid-term, most hydrogen will likely be produced by technologies that do not require a new hydrogen delivery infrastructure (i.e., from distributed natural gas). As RD&D progresses along renewable, nuclear, and clean coal and natural gas production pathways (including techniques for carbon sequestration) a suite of technologies will become available in the mid- and long-term to produce hydrogen from a diverse array of domestic resources. The economic viability of these different production pathways will be strongly affected by regional factors, such as feedstock availability and cost, delivery approaches, and regulatory environment.
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For hydrogen to become a viable fuel, advanced hydrogen storage technologies will be required, especially for automotive applications, where a driving range of at least 300 miles is needed. Current storage systems are too heavy, too large, and too costly. Technologies to convert hydrogen into useful energy—fuel cells and combustion technologies—must also be further improved to lower cost and improve performance.
Detailed analysis of life-cycle costs and benefits for alternative hydrogen production pathways, carbon sequestration, and other elements will continue. ''Well-to-Wheels'' analyses conclude that the energy and environmental benefits depend greatly on how hydrogen is manufactured, delivered and stored, and on the economic feasibility of sequestration for fossil feed stocks. The results of these studies will help in making down-select decisions and to ensure that the relative merits of specific hydrogen pathways are evaluated properly and in comparison with other energy alternatives. Out-year planning will identify needs for RD&D on production and storage technologies, delivery infrastructure, and education and safety/codes and standards. Public education of consumers and local code officials must also be pursued concurrently with the RD&D.
Finally, industry must develop and construct the infrastructure to deliver hydrogen where it is needed. We will work with the DOT to help industry develop a safe, efficient, nationwide hydrogen infrastructure. The hydrogen distribution infrastructure can evolve along with the conversion and production technologies, since much of the infrastructure that is developed for fossil-based hydrogen will also be applicable to renewable- and nuclear-based hydrogen. We will partner with industry to develop infrastructure in pilot projects, and industry will expand locally, regionally, and ultimately nationally.
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Transition to a Hydrogen Economy
We consider the transition to the hydrogen economy as occurring in four phases, each of which requires and builds on the success of its predecessor, as depicted in Figure 4. The transition to a hydrogen-based energy system is expected to take several decades, and to require strong public and private partnership. In Phase 1, government and private organizations will research, develop, and demonstrate ''critical path'' technologies and safety assurance prior to investing heavily in infrastructure. This Phase is now underway and will enable industry to make a decision on commercialization in 2015.
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The FY04 Budget currently before Congress is consistent with completion of the technology RD&D phase by 2015.
Phase II, Transition to the Marketplace, could begin as early as 2010 for applications such as portable power and some stationary applications, and as hydrogen-related technologies meet or exceed customer requirements. If an industry decision to commercialize hydrogen fuel cell vehicles is made in 2015, mass-market penetration can occur around 2020. Consumers will need compelling reasons to purchase these products; public benefits such as high fuel use efficiency and low emissions are not enough. The all-electronic car powered by hydrogen fuel cells (such as the General Motors Hy-wire) is one example of an approach to greater value delivery; it could offer the consumer improved performance through elimination of mechanical parts and greater design flexibility through the ''skateboard'' approach with ''snap-on'' bodies.
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As these markets become established, government can foster their further growth by playing the role of ''early adopter,'' and by creating policies that stimulate the market. As markets are established this leads to Phase III, Expansion of Markets and Infrastructure. The start of Phase III is consistent with a positive commercial decision for vehicles in 2015. A positive decision will attract investment in infrastructure for fuel cell manufacturing, and for hydrogen production and delivery. Government policies still may be required to nurture this infrastructure expansion phase.
Phase IV, which should begin about 2025, is Realization of the Hydrogen Vision, when consumer requirements will be met or exceeded; national benefits in terms of energy security and improved environmental quality are being achieved; and industry can receive adequate return on investment and compete globally. Phase IV provides the transition to a full hydrogen economy by 2040.
Budget Outlook
The Administration's FY 2004 Budget puts the program on track to meet the 2015 milestones. The Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy's (EERE) budget request of $256.6 million to support the President's FreedomCAR partnership and the Hydrogen Fuel Initiative breaks out as follows:
Hybrid Vehicle Technologies $91.1 million
Fuel Cells $77.5 million
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Hydrogen $88 million
Note that there is an additional $16.2 million requested by the DOE Offices of Fossil Energy ($11.5 million) and Nuclear Energy ($4 million), and the Department of Transportation ($0.7 million), for hydrogen production and delivery activities. Additionally, there is $47 million requested in DOE's Office of Fossil Energy for cross-cutting fuel cell systems and related technical issues.
The President outlined $1.2 billion over the next five years for hydrogen and fuel cells to advance a commercialization decision by 15 years, from approximately 2030 to 2015. This does not include amounts for carbon sequestration under the FutureGEN and related activities, nor does it include ongoing hydrogen and fuel cell R&D at other federal agencies (except for a subset of DOT spending). While the bulk of the effort will be within my office, the DOE Offices of Fossil Energy and Nuclear Energy, and the Department of Transportation will undertake significant efforts. In addition, we will work with the DOE Office of Science to explore how fundamental science can be applied to solve hydrogen and fuel cell barriers, and will coordinate our infrastructure work with DOT.
Conclusion
Mr. Chairman, it will take a great deal to achieve this vision of a hydrogen energy future we are all talking about this morning. It will require careful planning and coordination, public education, technology development, and substantial public and private investments. It will require a broad political consensus and a bipartisan approach. Most of all, it will take leadership and resolve.
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The President has demonstrated his leadership and resolve. ''With a new national commitment,'' said the President during his State of the Union address, ''our scientists and engineers will overcome obstacles to taking these cars from laboratory to showroom, so that the first car driven by a child born today could be powered by hydrogen and pollution free.''
A few days later at an event on energy independence featuring new uses for fuel cells including automobiles, the President reiterated his commitment to his new Hydrogen Fuel Initiative stating, ''The technology we have just seen is going to be seen on the roads of America. And it's important for our country to understand that by being bold and innovative, we can change the way we do business here in America; we can change our dependence upon foreign sources of energy; we can help with the quality of the air; and we can make a fundamental difference for the future of our children.''
We believe that the benefits the President envisions are attainable within our lifetimes and will accrue to posterity, but they will require sustained work and investment of public and private financial resources. We at the Department of Energy welcome the challenge and opportunity to play a vital role in this nation's energy future and to support our national security in such a fundamental way.
This completes my prepared statement. I would be happy to answer any questions you may have, either now or in the future.
Chairman BOEHLERT. Thank you, very much. We will go to Dr. Lloyd. We will have to take a break to respond to the Call of the House. Dr. Lloyd.
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STATEMENT OF DR. ALAN C. LLOYD, 2003 CHAIRMAN FOR THE CALIFORNIA FUEL CELL PARTNERSHIP
Dr. LLOYD. Good morning, Mr. Chairman and members of the Committee. My name is Alan Lloyd, and I am Chairman of the California Resources Board, and as you indicated, I am also Chairman of the 2003 of the California Fuel Cell Partnership. My immediate predecessor in that role as Chairman, was in fact Don Huberts from Shell. And also from—to say that the partnership is a voluntary cooperative effort to demonstrate fuel cell vehicles and fuel—vehicle fueling options in a collaborate environment. And I am testifying today on behalf of the Partnership. I would also say that four of the five panelists are, in fact, working in that Partnership.
The Partnership was created in 1999. Eight auto manufacturers, four energy providers, two technology providers, fuel cell companies, six government agencies, and ten associate partners, they are listed in my written testimony. I think the goals of the Partnership to demonstrate fuel cell powered electric vehicles on a day-to-day real-world driving conditions are not just our own. We test a variety of fuels and demonstrate the viability of an alternate fuel infrastructure, exploring the path to commercialization, and the key issue there of increased public awareness of fuel cell electric vehicles.
Our energy members are working through the challenges of developing fuel infrastructure for fuel cell vehicles. Similarly, we are working very closely with the auto members. But given that of the brevity here, I would defer significant comments on infrastructure and the automotive technology there to my colleagues Don Huberts and Dr. Burns.
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The members of the Partnership have successfully placed 26 fuel cell vehicles, 23 light duty, and three buses, and seven hydrogen fueling stations in California to day. The challenge that we have encountered have been overcome through the diligent attention of our members to technical success, collaboration, and raising public and stakeholder awareness. The Partnership expects to have up to 60 hydrogen vehicles and at least three additional stations operating in California by the end of 2004.
The challenges to a broader implementation of fuel cell vehicles and fueling are four fold. The technical challenge on the vehicle, cost, both infrastructure and the vehicle expanding infrastructure, and education of the stakeholders. And as I indicated, more details are provided in my written testimony.
The hydrogen fueling stations that have been successfully set in California to date have been a result of Partnership members working closely with local officials, including fire and building departments and hazardous materials officers to make them aware of the properties of hydrogen, general safety precautions, how to respond in an emergency. Once local officials are properly informed, a fueling station can be permitted and cited with full community support.
The other issues relating to product standards, infrastructure expansion, I think is critical to the work in the Partnership here with the Society of Automotive Engineers and others. I would mention as an example as a station which is being used in renewable hydrogen—well not, just renewable hydrogen, this case is one of the transit stations where we have electrolysis of water providing hydrogen for some buses. That is augmented by a station we have with the partnership which uses hydrogen, which is brought in. And that is used at either 3,500 and 5,00 PSI.
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The important pieces on education I have indicated in my written testimony. I think public awareness, educating emergency responders, developing student curriculums I think is very, very important.
I think addressing specifically the Bill before you in the Hydrogen Future Act; I think this is a good beginning. I think the commercialization of hydrogen fuel cells is a matter of national security, of which the motivation behind the Hydrogen Future Act. Security of energy supplies economic security, national security, and environmental security. Obviously, these huge stakes require us to be bold, innovative, and courageous.
Our goal of commercializing hydrogen fuel-cell systems for energy supply and for transportation will require great economic change, and also social change. It can only be accomplished by the kind of public/private collaboration of what—in which the Partnership is one example.
The President's recent policy announcement, has given the effort unprecedented momentum. The proposed revisions in of the Matsunaga Act, soon to be the Brown-Walker Act, provide us a framework for such a program. We know all too well how much our security is related to our limited sources.
In respect to funding levels, President Bush has proposed 1.2 billion for fuel cell vehicles and related hydrogen infrastructure for the next five years. Our members have supported this initiative enthusiastically. It provides an authorized level of about 500 million for fuel cells and 700 million for hydrogen between Fiscal Year 2004 and 2008.
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I hope the Committee will adjust its authorities in both Title I and Title II. Chairman Boehlert has spoken favorable of the Program. I think this is a chance for the Committee to show its collective support.
The Program outlined by the President for transportation and stationary fuel cell research and development, and hydrogen infrastructure has received the most attention, but achieving a hydrogen economy will require a comprehensive program. The large industry coalition outlined a plan in its document Fuel Cells and Hydrogen Path Forward. The document is consistent with the President's proposal, but identifies additional needs for research and in fuel cells as well as tax incentives, buy-downs, and non-financial incentives to encourage investment in a hydrogen infrastructure and fuel cells.
I think buying and using units may encourage the private sector to buy and use these units is the best way to facilitate the introduction to fuel cells and hydrogen. The Partnership is working together to develop and demonstrate hydrogen fueling infrastructure. There are technology needs in this area, but also we need sufficient resources to develop, test, and choose the best approaches.
The Committee might want to modify the Bill language to recognize this priority and better focus the government's hydrogen activities.
Similarly, on the fuel cell side, I would like to urge the Committee to give greater emphasis to demonstration for the government facilities and in the private sector. I can not stress that sufficiently because unless you get out there and, so to speak, kick the tires, the public doesn't get comfortable with that. We don't understand some of the issues. And both of these benefits would benefit the kind of integrations and cooperation that the Bill envisions.
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I think it is also important that the government give priority or stimuli to uniform and balanced International Standards for health and safety, and for working with industry on international component commercial standards. I note in the Bill we talked about quality measures. We found in the development of electric vehicles in California markets that voluntary consensus was impossible to achieve, for example, vehicle charging techniques.
Speaking as a former Chair of the DOE's Hydrogen Technical Advisor Committee, I——
Chairman BOEHLERT. Dr. Lloyd, could we ask you to wrap it up, we have to respond to the House? Okay, it appears that you and I collaborated on our opening statements, but I can assure the audience the independent thought.
Dr. LLOYD. Okay, how much—how long do I have?
Chairman BOEHLERT. One minute.
Dr. LLOYD. Okay. I think as a member of the Chair—a former Chair of the DOE Technical Advisory Committee, I think it is important that that committee has its resources. I was frustrated when I was Chair that the recommendation of the Panel didn't get to the highest levels of DOE. I have confidence that as outlined here, if that authority is given, then in fact some of the additional Committee's Oversights and generation of reports may not be necessary.
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[The prepared statement of Dr. Lloyd follows:]
PREPARED STATEMENT OF ALAN C. LLOYD
Invited Testimony guidelines
The testimony should describe the barriers to a hydrogen economy, and how the California Fuel Cell Partnership (CaFCP) is working to overcome those barriers. In particular, the Committee would like you to answer these questions:
1) What obstacles has the CaFCP faced in putting hydrogen vehicles and infrastructure ''on the ground''? How have you overcome these obstacles, and how do you plan to do so in the future?
2) What elements should be included in the Department of Energy's hydrogen program to both effectively develop hydrogen technologies and promote their adoption?
3) What are the greatest hurdles the country will face in converting to a hydrogen economy? To what extent is a federal effort needed to clear the way?
Testimony to the Committee on H.R. 238
Good Morning, Mr. Chairman and Members of the Committee. My name is Alan Lloyd. I am the Chairman of the California Air Resources Board (ARB).
This year, 2003, I am also serving as the Chairman of the California Fuel Cell Partnership (CaFCP), a voluntary, cooperative effort to demonstrate fuel cell vehicles and vehicle fueling options in a collaborative environment. Per your request, I am testifying on behalf of the California Fuel Cell Partnership.
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California's active participation and support of the CaFCP is based on the potential of hydrogen fuel cell vehicles to help us attain health related air quality goals, as well as the energy security goals of our state and nation. Fuel cells operate on hydrogen, which can be derived from domestic resources and renewable energy. The only emission from a compressed or liquid hydrogen fuel cell vehicle is water. With the proper level of federal assistance, fuel cells can provide the long-term solution to the Nation's air quality and energy security problems.
The CaFCP was established in April 1999. Its members include:
1. Auto manufacturers
DaimlerChrysler
Ford
GM
Honda
Hyundai
Nissan
Toyota
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Volkswagen
2. Energy providers
BP
ExxonMobil
Shell Hydrogen
ChevronTexaco
3. Fuel cell companies
Ballard Power Systems
UTC Fuel Cells
4. Government agencies
California Air Resources Board
California Energy Commission
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South Coast AQMD
U.S. Department of Energy
U.S. Department of Transportation
U.S. Environmental Protection Agency
Ten Associate Partners assist with specific expertise to help meet the Partnership's goals:
1. Hydrogen and fuel station suppliers
Air Products and Chemicals, Inc.
Praxair
Pacific Gas & Electric
Proton Energy Systems, Inc.
Stuart Energy Systems
Z–Tek
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2. Methanol fuel supplier
Methanex
3. Transit agencies
AC Transit, San Francisco Bay area
SunLine Transit Agency, Palm Springs area
Santa Clara Valley Transportation Authority, San Jose
Former chairs include:
John Wallace (retired), Ford Motor Co., 2000
Ferdinand Panik (retired), DaimlerChrysler, 2001
Don Huberts, Shell Hydrogen, 2002
The goals of the CaFCP are:
1. Demonstrate fuel cell-powered electric vehicles under day-to-day, real world driving conditions
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2. Test a variety of fuels and demonstrating the viability of an alternative fuel infrastructure
3. Explore the path to commercialization
4. Increase public awareness of fuel cell electric vehicles
The CaFCP maintains a ''fuel neutral'' position regarding the choice of feed stock fuel for fuel cell vehicles. It's the common sense thing to do at this stage of exploration, in order to gain insight and experience with all potential fuels. Our Energy members are working through the challenges of developing a fuel infrastructure for fuel cell vehicles. Their efforts include the installation of our ''home'' hydrogen station in West Sacramento, several small hydrogen stations that use natural gas reformation or electrolysis of water technologies, and a methanol station—methanol is a hydrogen carrier fuel that can be reformed to provide hydrogen. During this early stage, all of the vehicles have been powered by hydrogen. We will also be testing liquid fuels rich in hydrogen—methanol and a cleaner form of gasoline—so that we can learn more and determine what will best serve a successful commercial launch.
The members of the CaFCP have successfully placed 26 fuel cell vehicles (23 light-duty vehicles and 3 buses) and 7 hydrogen fueling stations (West Sacramento, Richmond, Irvine, Palm Springs area, Los Angeles, Torrance—Honda and Toyota) in California to date. The challenges that we have encountered have been overcome through the diligent attention of our members to technical success, collaboration and raising public and stakeholder awareness. The CaFCP members expect to have 60 hydrogen fuel cell vehicles and at least 3 additional hydrogen stations (Davis, Auburn and LAX) operating in California by the end of 2003. In 2004, our transit agency associate partners will begin operation of seven 40-foot fuel cell buses.
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We believe we have made a great beginning. With additional pilot fleet demonstrations that will prepare markets for a nationwide transition, we are hopeful that we can help achieve the dream of an energy future based on hydrogen.
[What obstacles has the CaFCP faced in putting hydrogen vehicles and infrastructure ''on the ground''? How have you overcome these obstacles, and how do you plan to do so in the future?]
The challenges to a broader implementation of fuel cell vehicles and fueling are four-fold: vehicle technical challenges, cost, expanding the fueling infrastructure and education of stakeholders.
Vehicle technologies
The auto companies are addressing a number of challenges including onboard hydrogen storage, all-weather start-up and durability. I won't speak to these in detail, but suffice it to say that the vehicles being tested in California, while vastly improved over the versions available only a couple of years ago, are still early prototype or very limited production vehicles for early fleet trials. The good news is that all of the auto companies are confident and diligently working to resolve the remaining technical challenges.
Cost
The cost of fuel cell technology needs to come down. Fuel cells and fuel cell vehicles are hand built today at great cost. While General Motors has established a cost target of $500 per kilowatt for fuel cells in stationary power applications in 2005, to be competitive with internal combustion engine vehicles, the cost must be reduced to perhaps $50 per kW. Achieving these cost targets will require advances in materials, manufacturing, and, most importantly, sufficient demand to reduce the cost of components. The CaFCP is not collectively addressing the cost challenge however, each member faces this hurdle everyday.
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Infrastructure
A fueling infrastructure for fuel cell vehicles must be established. This provides significant challenges including codes, standards, and expansion strategies.
1. Codes and Standards
Virtually all the auto manufacturers have announced plans to begin vehicle demonstrations using compressed hydrogen fuel rather than producing the hydrogen onboard the vehicle by reforming another fuel. Providing hydrogen for consumers will require significant investment, massive public education, and modification of health and safety codes and recommended practices. Current codes and standards for hydrogen were not written with vehicle fueling in mind.
The hydrogen fueling stations that have been successfully sited in California to date have been the result of CaFCP members working closely with local officials, including fire and building departments and hazardous materials officers, to make them aware of the properties of hydrogen, general safety precautions and how to respond in an emergency. Once local officials are properly informed, fueling stations can be permitted and sited with full community support.
Regarding codes and standards pertaining to facility designs, we successfully permitted a unique headquarters facility in West Sacramento more than two years ago. The 55,000 square foot building houses hydrogen-safe work bays for the auto partners and Ballard, office space for CaFCP personnel, and has hydrogen and methanol fueling station on-site. We learned a lot in that process, and now are conducting a study with an engineering design firm to determine how such facilities, as well as parking structures and home garages, should be designed to accommodate hydrogen-fueled vehicles in the future. The goal is to ensure safety while minimizing the modifications and costs needed.
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As we move forward to install a broader fueling infrastructure, uniform national and state codes and will be important to streamline the siting and permitting process—and to allow fueling stations to be sited as commercial establishments. For example, the West Sacramento hydrogen station was required to be placed 75 feet from the headquarters building. Fortunately, there was enough space to accommodate the distance but this space requirement would prohibit hydrogen fueling stations in a commercial setting. Several of the CaFCP members are participating in code setting organizations such as the International Code Council (ICC) and National Fire Protection Agency (NFPA) to this end.
2. Product Standards
A related area is component standards or recommended practices. Another challenge that was addressed by the CaFCP members was the lack of commonality of hydrogen refueling nozzles. The CaFCP members worked with the Society of Automotive Engineers (SAE) to give feedback for establishing a common standard for hydrogen fueling nozzles. In addition we have collected real-world data on hydrogen fueling of the vehicles and provided that to SAE. That same data was later utilized by SAE to improve upon the standard (pressurized) tank design used in natural gas vehicles to accommodate hydrogen in fuel cell vehicles.
3. Infrastructure expansion
In order to expand the range of the hydrogen fuel cell vehicles, we are faced with the challenge of increasing the hydrogen fueling infrastructure. The CaFCP operates a ''home base'' fuel station at our headquarters in West Sacramento which is supplied with liquid hydrogen by Air Products & Chemicals and Praxair. Small stations are being placed throughout California to increase the distance a hydrogen vehicle can travel from ''home.'' We believe that these stations will create a network so that fuel cell vehicles will be able to move throughout California.
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An example of one such station is the CaFCP hydrogen satellite station—approximately 70 miles southwest of Sacramento at the Richmond Operating Division of AC Transit. The Stuart Energy appliance technology uses water electrolysis to generate hydrogen fuel on-site for vehicles. The advantages of the distributed hydrogen generation system is that it is convenient, easy to install and available immediately. The station is capable of supplying the fueling needs of a small fleet of vehicles on a daily basis. The entire integrated station consists of a high-pressure, high-purity hydrogen generator, a storage unit, and a hydrogen fuel dispenser that resembles a common gasoline dispenser. To fuel a vehicle, the driver simply swipes a ''smart'' card to activate the dispenser and attaches the nozzle to their vehicle's tank. The computer controls the amount and pressure of hydrogen that is dispensed and automatically shuts off when the tank is full. The entire procedure closely resembles today's consumer fueling procedure.
Setting up a network of fueling stations dedicated to compressed hydrogen for fuel cell vehicles creates a stranded investment risk for developers. One of the CaFCP members, SCAQMD, has a plan to mitigate some of the risk by equipping new CNG stations with subsystems that are capable of dispensing hydrogen. The result will be a network of 10 to 12 stations with the potential to refuel hydrogen. When fuel cell vehicles are introduced into nearby fleets in the 2004 to 2007 timeframe, these stations can then be geared up for actual hydrogen refueling with the addition of a compressor specifically designed for hydrogen.
The CaFCP bus program is being used to expand the hydrogen network for the CaFCP vehicles and educate the public on the safety and reliability of fuel cell vehicles. SunLine Transit Agency demonstrated the Ballard ZEbus (Zero Emission bus) hydrogen fuel cell bus for one year and currently operates a second fuel cell bus in regular fare service. The buses have provided officials and riders alike with an opportunity to experience the pollution-free transportation technology of the future and drew visitors from around the world. Since April 2000, SunLine has generated hydrogen on site from two sources—solar power and natural gas.
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Education
The CaFCP and its members have placed a strong emphasis on raising awareness of fuel cell vehicles and fueling. Education is the key to acceptance of hydrogen fuel by the public, the government and industry. Our focus has been in three main areas: the public, stakeholders, and students.
1. Public awareness
Awareness of fuel cells is growing. According to a recent survey conducted for CaFCP, a growing number of Californians look with favor on the development of fuel cell vehicles. Notably, the public by a wide margin approves of government support for pre-commercial demonstration of fuel cell technology and the development of alternative fueling stations. The CaFCP program reached 200,000 people in 2002. The three-day Central Coast Road Rally allowed 100,000 people to get close to the vehicles; to date, 7,000 riders/drivers have personally driven in FCVs fueled with hydrogen at CaFCP events.
2. Emergency responders training
Emergency responders are one of the first groups which the CaFCP has focused its education efforts. CaFCP created an Emergency Response (ER) guide for hydrogen fuel cell vehicles to supplement the U.S. DOT ER guide that does not contain hydrogen vehicle information. In addition the CaFCP has created a training program to educate first responders on general hydrogen safety as well as detailed hydrogen vehicle information, critical to safety in case of an accident. Last year we trained 35 responders representing 5 local agencies in the Richmond area (the location of our hydrogen satellite station). The feedback from the trained responders was that they believed the information to be critical to address this new technology. This year we plan to train 300 first responders located in areas where the fuel cell vehicle fleets will be located (10 agencies in the LA and San Francisco Bay regions).
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3. Student curriculums
An educational challenge facing California and the Nation is having enough qualified researchers and trained technicians. The CaFCP is working to create excitement among our next generation of drivers with science competitions and by provides learning kits to help middle and high school teachers find the best resources—including classroom curricula—for introducing to students the scientific principles of fuel cells and their fuels. SunLine Transit Agency and AC Transit have incorporated fuel cell technology into their apprenticeship training programs for heavy-duty vehicle mechanics. SunLine has also worked with the College of the Desert to design a curriculum to train future technicians in an alternative-fuel technology program. The curriculum is posted on the NREL AFDC website.(see footnote 2)
[What elements should be included in the Department of Energy's hydrogen program to both effectively develop hydrogen technologies and promote their adoption?]
The Committee has before it H.R. 238, which includes revisions to the Hydrogen Future Act. This is a good beginning. The commercialization of hydrogen and fuel cells is a matter of national security, the motivation behind the Hydrogen Future Act:
Security of energy supply, since hydrogen can be made from abundant domestic sources;
Economic security, since every million barrels of oil we import each day at $30 per barrel costs us $10 billion a year, not to mention the cost of securing those supplies;
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National security, since a hydrogen future would reduce or eliminate oil-related international tensions and provide a mechanism for more equitably sharing the benefits of access to energy among all nations;
Environmental security, since fuel cell systems running on hydrogen reduce and can even eliminate conventional pollutants and net greenhouse gases.
These huge stakes require us to be bold, innovative and courageous. Our goal of commercializing hydrogen and fuel cell systems for energy supply and for transportation will require great economic change, and also social change. It can only be accomplished by the kind of public-private collaboration of which the CaFCP is only one example.
The President's recent policy announcements have given the effort unprecedented momentum. The proposed revisions of the Matsunaga Act—soon to be the Brown-Walker Act—provide us a framework for such a program. But I would urge the Committee to take the opportunity to add to the structure, to be bold, while the opportunity is ripe.
In fairness, the authorities in the Matsunaga Act expired in 2001, and thus the programs embodied in Brown-Walker were developed several years ago. We know all too painfully how much our nation has changed since then. We know all to well how much our security is related to oil and its sources. Therefore, even though the Committee's markup schedule is ambitious, I would urge you consider the following changes.
1. Funding levels.
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a. President Bush has proposed 1.2 billion for fuel cell vehicles and related hydrogen infrastructure over the next five years. Our members have supported this initiative enthusiastically. It implies an authorized level of about $500 million for fuel cells and $700 million for hydrogen between FY 2004 and FY 2008. I hope the Committee will adjust its authorities in both Title I and Title II. Chairman Boehlert has spoken favorably of the program; this is a chance for the Committee to show its collective support.
b. The program outlined by the president for transportation and stationary fuel cell research and development and hydrogen infrastructure has received the most attention, but achieving a hydrogen economy will require a comprehensive program. A large industry coalition has outlined a comprehensive plan in its document, Fuel Cells and Hydrogen: The Path Forward.(see footnote 3) That document is consistent with the President's proposal but identifies additional needs for research in high-temperature fuel cells, as well as tax incentives, buy downs and non-financial incentives to encourage investment in a hydrogen infrastructure and fuel cells. In conjunction with the President's $1.2 billion, these programs if fully authorized would total $2.5 billion over five years overall, a level comparable to the authorization in H.R. 238 for other mainstream energy research programs.
2. Program Focus. Buying and using units, and encouraging the private sector to buy and use units, is the best way to facilitate the transition to fuel cells and hydrogen.
a. The members of the CaFCP are working together to develop and demonstrate a hydrogen fueling infrastructure. There are technology needs in this area, but also we need sufficient resources to develop, test and choose the best approaches. The Committee might wish to modify the bill language to recognize this priority and to better focus the government's hydrogen activities.
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b. Similarly, on the fuel cell vehicle side, I would like to urge the Committee to give greater emphasis to demonstrations, both at government facilities and in the private sector. Both these activities would benefit from the kind of interagency cooperation that the bill envisions; interagency programs would also help expand the type and range of vehicles in use beyond passenger cars. Now is not the time to limit our options.
c. It is also very important that the government give priority to stimulating uniform and balanced international standards, for health and safety, and work with industry on international component and commercial standards. We found in the development of electric vehicles for California markets that voluntary consensus was impossible to achieve in, for example, vehicle charging techniques.
3. Other areas.
a. Speaking as a former chair of the Hydrogen Technology Advisory Committee, I was pleased to see it reauthorized.
i. I would caution that it needs resources to do its job.
ii. My greatest frustration, however, was that its recommendations received insufficient attention from the U.S. DOE.
iii. The pending bill does have a mechanism for assuring that the recommendations at least are read, but that mechanism will need to be enforced.
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iv. With a strong and visible HTAP, there would be no need in my opinion for additional National Academy of Sciences review nor for at least some of the reports and analyses required of the Secretary.
b. Cost share is often extremely difficult for entrepreneurs.
i. The cost share waiver language in the bill is a good start at addressing this problem. The Committee may wish to allow the Secretary to waive the cost share not only for high risk programs, but also for extraordinarily high reward programs.
ii. I might also suggest the Committee consider a small ''Innovation Fund'' along the lines of the SBIR program, though perhaps with a higher program cost limit.
c. I would be remiss if I did not also encourage the Committee to include enhanced air quality as one of the stated goals of this program. A healthful environment is a national consensus goal and a matter of national security.
[What are the greatest hurdles the country will face in converting to a hydrogen economy? To what extent is a federal effort needed to clear the way?]
The Federal Government will play a critical role in converting the United States into a hydrogen economy. Only an active partnership among the Federal Government, states, private industry and, ultimately, the public, can marshal the financial and human resources to do the job. The goals of the Federal Government's hydrogen and fuel cell vehicle programs should include reducing the cost of hydrogen generation and storage and providing purchase incentives for other public and private entities that want to be early adopters of this technology.
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Cost reduction of hydrogen generation and storage
A successful hydrogen economy will require efficient and cost-effective hydrogen production and storage technologies. The CaFCP is investigating different hydrogen production technologies at satellite stations provided by the associate partners. Stuart Energy and Proton Energy Systems manufacture electrolyzers that use water and electricity to produce hydrogen. PG&E and Z–Tek reform hydrocarbon fuels to release their hydrogen content. The issue of hydrogen production is not only being examined in the United States. The Clean Urban Transportation in Europe (CUTE) fuel cell bus program consists of 3 buses in each of 10 cities. Each project will produce hydrogen fuel by a technique that makes sense for the area that the project is located. The hydrogen will be produced from sources ranging from biomass to hydrocarbon fuels. Some of the hydrogen production techniques that produce the least emissions are the most economically challenged. The Federal Government is the only stakeholder that can sponsor the research and development necessary to reduce the cost of these clean technologies and get them into the market.
The Federal Government's hydrogen program must focus on finding better ways to store hydrogen that will allow fuel cell vehicles to drive greater distances on a single fueling. Consumers demand a driving range that is currently not possible with the present, feasible, hydrogen storage onboard vehicles. Auto manufacturers need lightweight, high capacity, and affordable hydrogen storage to make fuel cell vehicles successful in the marketplace. This is one of the biggest challenges to the commercialization of hydrogen fuel cell vehicles and should not be underestimated or under funded.
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Support for demonstrations (early adopters)
The Federal Government has the ability to stimulate the early market for hydrogen as a transportation fuel by promoting hydrogen fuel cell vehicles for government fleets and providing early buy-downs for public fleets. While we believe the Partnership is the leading test effort in the world for fuel cell vehicles and hydrogen, California recognizes that a commercial strategy must of course be national. Therefore, additional pilot fleet demonstrations are necessary and the federal program should be national in scope.
The CaFCP sponsored a study that was completed in 2001 to examine the commercialization process for fuel cell vehicles using different fuels—hydrogen was one of the scenario studies.(see footnote 4) The process for commercialization (no matter the fuel) includes a demonstration phase, a pilot phase, a decision to commercialize, and mass production. Fuel cell vehicles are emerging from the demonstration phase and must be placed in pilot fleets in order to continue down the path of commercialization.
Two CaFCP members, Honda and Toyota, have already placed vehicles into government and university fleets in California. Several other auto members have expressed a desire to place fuel cell vehicles in fleets. The numbers of vehicles are small and the states need close cooperation and support from the Federal Government in order to place significant numbers of vehicles.
For example, the U.S. DOT played a key role in placing orders for seven fuel cell buses that will arrive in California next year by assisting in the attainment of federal funds. The State of California, like many states, does not have the financial resources to support these very expensive pilot programs without federal assistance. Our transit bus demonstration program has been funded by over $16 million in local and state grants, but will need more federal funding to sustain the demonstration and evaluation periods beyond 2006. Fuel cell transit buses have the potential to become commercial in the next ten years. However, the initial buses are expensive and may not have the reliability of everyday buses. We project that we will need another generation of fuel cell bus demonstrations with improved fuel cells and more efficient packages. I believe there is a significant value to the Federal Government sharing the cost burden and gaining experience in California that can be shared in other states to maximize the payoff of every demonstration program dollar. I would like to urge the Committee to support—to the extent of its jurisdiction—multi-year funding under U.S. DOT for ongoing development of fuel cell bus programs as outlined in the National Fuel Cell Bus Technology Program initiative.
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Speaking as a member of the CaFCP, the State of California, our biggest challenge is placing significant numbers of hydrogen fuel cell vehicles within the State. The numbers of vehicles that we expect within the next five years do not warrant a significant increase in the capacity of the hydrogen fuel infrastructure that is not already planned. I believe it is of paramount importance for the State to work closely with U.S. DOT for hydrogen fuel cell buses, U.S. DOE and U.S. Department of Defense for hydrogen fuel cell vehicles and U.S. EPA to certify the vehicles in order to be placed in fleets. The U.S., not just California, is competing with Europe and Asia (particularly Japan) for the limited numbers of hydrogen fuel cell vehicles that the auto companies have the resources to provide in the early years. Presently, the only hydrogen fuel cell vehicle that has gone through the full development process, certification, and is built on line at a small volume factory is Honda's FCX. I congratulate Honda and admire the leadership they have shown.
Conclusion
We must be dedicated in our efforts today to make hydrogen our fuel for tomorrow. It will take sustained cooperation between government agencies, industry leaders and nations on the leading edge of new technologies. Many challenges must be addressed but there are none that cannot be overcome. The ARB is participating in the CaFCP to ensure that the State of California takes advantage of every opportunity to accelerate a conversion to a hydrogen future. We cannot succeed without the support of the Federal Government.
I appreciate the opportunity to testify today and urge you to do all that the Federal Government can to make the future fuel—hydrogen, the fuel of today. Thank you for your time and attention.
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BIOGRAPHY FOR ALAN C. LLOYD
Alan C. Lloyd, Ph.D., was appointed as Chairman to the California Air Resources Board by Governor Gray Davis in February 1999.
The Air Resources Board (Board), a branch of the California Environmental Protection Agency, oversees a $150 million budget and a staff of nearly 1,100 employees located in northern and southern California. The Board consists of eleven members appointed by the Governor with the consent of the Senate. All members serve ''at the pleasure of the Governor'' on a part-time basis, except the Chairman, who serves full-time.
The Board's mission is to promote and protect public health, welfare and ecological resources through effective reduction of air pollutants while recognizing and considering effects on the economy. The Board oversees all air pollution control efforts in California to attain and maintain health-based air quality standards. In addition, the Board gives financial and technical help to 35 local districts establishing controls on industrial emissions. The Board is also responsible for the control of motor vehicle and consumer products air pollution, and the identification and control of toxic air contaminants.
Dr. Lloyd most recently served as the Executive Director of the Energy and Environmental Engineering Center for the Desert Research Institute at the University and Community College System of Nevada, Reno. Previously, Dr. Lloyd was the chief scientist at the South Coast Air Quality Management District from 1988 to 1996, where he managed the Technology Advancement office that funded public-private partnerships to stimulate advanced technologies and cleaner fuels.
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As Chairman, Dr. Lloyd is committed to cultivate a mindset and an attitude throughout government, industry and society that zero- and near-zero emission technologies can be put to use now or in the immediate future to help the state meet its air quality goals. He initiated the environmental justice focus within the agency and led the efforts resulting in the adoption of the Environmental Justice Policy and actions to be followed up by the Board.
Dr. Lloyd has given many presentations to national and international audiences, focusing on the viable future of advanced technology and renewable fuels, with attention to the urban air quality challenges faced by California and to the impact on global climate change. He is a major proponent of alternate fuels, electric drive and fuel cell vehicles eventually leading to a hydrogen economy. Dr. Lloyd has also authored many articles on alternative fuels and air pollution control technology, including Fuel Cells and Air Quality: A California Perspective; Electric Vehicles and Future Air Quality in Los Angeles; Air Quality Management in Los Angeles: Perspectives on Past and Future Emission Control Strategies; and Accelerating Mobile Source Emission Reductions: California's Experience and Recommendations to Developing Counties.
Dr. Lloyd is the 2003 Chairman of the California Fuel Cell Partnership and is a co-founder of the California Stationary Fuel Cell collaborative. He is a past chairman of the U.S. Department of Energy Hydrogen Technical Advisory Panel (HTAP).
Dr. Lloyd, 61, earned both his Bachelor of Science in Chemistry and Ph.D. in Gas Kinetics at the University College of Wales, Aberystwyth, U.K.
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Chairman BOEHLERT. Thank you very much, Dr. Lloyd.
Dr. LLOYD. Thank you.
Chairman BOEHLERT. We must go now. We will recess for approximately 15 minutes, and during that period you can confer with the high-level DOE Official to your right.
[Recess]
Chairman BOEHLERT. Before we start, I ask unanimous consent of a former colleague of ours, Dick Chrysler of Michigan be permitted to sit on the dais, not to ask any questions but to observe. And he doesn't have any special interest in this other than as a citizen. Mr. Chrysler, you are welcome to take a seat up here. And we will resume. Dr. Ogden, you are up. And then speak closely.
STATEMENT OF DR. JOAN M. OGDEN, RESEARCH SCIENTIST, PRINCETON ENVIRONMENTAL INSTITUTE
Dr. OGDEN. Let us see, I guess the screen is up there. Well, good morning. It is a real pleasure to be here. My name is Joan Ogden. I am a research scientist at Princeton University, with a background in physics, and for the last, approximately, 15 years; I have conducted a number of technical and economic assessments of hydrogen and fuel cell energy systems. So today I am going to talk to you a little about what I see the prospects for large scale use of hydrogen in the future energy system.
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Could you click that for me Larry, please, the next one? Thank you. First I am going to just mention a little about different options for producing hydrogen and delivering it. Hydrogen is actually widely used in the chemical and oil refining industries today, and about one percent of U.S. energy, and five percent of our natural gas use goes to making hydrogen. As you might expect, technologies for high scale hydrogen production, storage, and delivery by truck and pipeline are in commercial use today. And the merchant high in infrastructure delivers enough hydrogen by truck and pipeline to fuel perhaps one percent of U.S. cars, if they were all run on efficient fuel cell vehicles or hydrogen vehicles.
Current hydrogen technologies are now being developed for use in energy systems. Most of the hydrogen is made from natural gas today, but there are a number of options for producing and delivering hydrogen. Dr. Garman mentioned these, most of them could be implemented using commercial or near commercial technology. In the longer term, you could make hydrogen from fossil fuel, such as natural gas or coal, possibly with the capture and sequestration of CO, so it doesn't go into the atmosphere, renewables, such as bio-mass. That would energy crops or wastes, wind, solar, or nuclear power. Hydrogen would cost more than current gasoline, but you could use it more efficiently.
In your testimony, there are a couple of figures that show a number of different hydrogen production options. I just might mention of the ones shown in that written testimony of probably the nuclear term of chemical are not as far along. That is really in the laboratory stage. Most of the others are based on commercial or near-term technology.
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Using hydrogen in vehicles can reduce emissions and oil consumption compared to the conventional fuels. And I won't go on about this because it is very nicely shown in the graphs by Dr. Garman. But I might say that hydrogen vehicles using hydrogen from renewable, de-carbonized fossil or nuclear sources could have near zero emissions of greenhouse gases and air pollutants on a well-to-wheels basis. That is all the emissions involved in extracting the feedstock, producing hydrogen and using it.
Externalities we think could become an important driver for hydrogen in the future. It is uncertain today what exact value you should assign to the cost of things like global warning, but hydrogen vehicles can offer what appear to be the lowest overall externalities cost of any option, and we think this may make it—help make it very competitive in the future.
One of the barriers to a hydrogen economy, the current lack of a hydrogen infrastructure; unlike gasoline or natural gas, hydrogen is not delivered to consumers today. It is not so much a matter of the technology breakthrough being needed to do it; it is more of a matter of matching supply and demand as the system grows in a cost-effective way. Currently hydrogen end-use technologies like fuel cells costs a lot. Some of the technologies could be more mature, let us say, adapting existing hydrogen technologies for a hydrogen energy economies could speed progress, particularly in areas like hydrogen storage onboard vehicles, small scale hydrogen production systems for use in refueling stations, and for fossil-hydrogen as a long-term option, CO sequestration.
And finally, I would say there is a lack of policies of reflecting the external cost of energy presently. I think that policies would probably be required to bring about a hydrogen economy, including evaluation of externalities. Let me rather rephrase that to say I see a world where hydrogen is widely used as one where externalities be much more important than they are now. I think it will involve a real paradigm shift. I would see political will and policies in markets sort of evolving together, reflecting a profound change in how we view energy as a society.
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And we have begun to debate on that now, which I am very glad to see. I think it is a process that will take place over time. Certainly there are factors that could accelerate the adoption of hydrogen, with technical breakthroughs and things like storage that might make it easier to handle hydrogen and potential market pull of fundamentally new products and services that could be enabled by hydrogen in fuel cells. And I expect some of the other folks on the panel will talk some about those.
Policies that might encourage use of hydrogen, the first couple of these are already happening, R&D on key concepts. The R&D programs are certainly addressing some of these; demonstration of hydrogen production infrastructure in end-use technologies through efforts like the California Fuel Cell Partnership. They also say there could be arousal for policies to encourage buy-down of hydrogen technology such as fuel cell and infrastructure. And finally, I would say policies to value externalities, emissions standards that be bates any number of things could help encourage the use of hydrogen.
Just to mention, as everyone knows here, hydrogen is a long-term option. We will be in this for the long-haul, even for optimistic scenarios that might take several decades before hydrogen could impact emissions on a global scale. That having said, in the near-term it is important to do what we can now in terms of encouraging more efficient use of fossil resources, and the more efficient eternal combustion engine vehicles to address these while we are developing things like hydrogen and fuel cells, which we are going to need for the longer term.
In conclusion, I just say, hydrogen and fuel cells, although they are long-term, they are potentially a very high pay off, and I think they deserve significant government support now. Insurance, if nothing else, so they will be ready in 15 to 20 years if we want to deploy them on a very wide basis. And I would like to see a comprehensive strategy on policies based on encouraging use of more of clean, efficient technologies available in the near-term, coupled with longer term strategy we seem to be embarking on, which would involve development of hydrogen fuel cells. Thank you.
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[The prepared statement of Dr. Ogden follows:]
PREPARED STATEMENT OF JOAN M. OGDEN
INTRODUCTION
Globally, direct combustion of fuels for transportation and heating accounts for about two thirds of greenhouse gas emissions, a significant fraction of air pollutant emissions and about two thirds of primary energy use. Even with continuing incremental progress in energy technologies, most energy forecasts project that primary energy use and emissions of greenhouse gases and air pollutants from use of fuels will grow over the next century, because of increasing demand, especially in developing countries. To stabilize atmospheric CO at levels of 450–550 ppm (a level that climate analysts suggest would avoid undue interference with climate), it will be necessary to significantly reduce carbon emissions from the fuel sector, even if the electric sector completely switches to non-carbon emitting sources by 2100 (Williams, 2003). Energy supply security is a serious concern, particularly for the transportation sector, which depends almost entirely on fuels derived from crude oil.
A variety of alternative fuels have been proposed that could help address future environmental and energy supply challenges. These include reformulated gasoline or diesel, compressed natural gas, methanol, ethanol, synthetic liquids from natural gas or coal such as Fischer-Tropsch liquids or dimethyl ether (DME), and hydrogen. Of these, hydrogen offers the greatest potential environmental and energy supply benefits. Like electricity, hydrogen is a versatile secondary energy carrier that can be made from a variety of widely available primary energy sources including natural gas, coal, biomass (agricultural or forestry residues or energy crops), wastes, solar, wind or nuclear power. Hydrogen can be used with high conversion efficiency and essentially zero emissions. If hydrogen is made from renewable, nuclear or decarbonized fossil sources (e.g., energy production from fossil fuels with capture and secure storage of carbon), it would be possible to produce and use fuels on a global scale with near zero emissions of air pollutants (nitrogen oxides, carbon monoxide, sulfur oxides, volatile hydrocarbons or particulates) or greenhouse gases. A future energy system based on electricity and hydrogen has long been proposed as an ideal long-term solution to energy related environmental and supply security problems (see Box 1, Hoffmann, 2001).
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Balancing hydrogen's attractions are the technical, economic and infrastructure challenges posed by implementing hydrogen as a new fuel. Commercial hydrogen production, storage and transmission technologies exist in the chemical industries, but optimizing them for widespread hydrogen distribution to consumers involves engineering and cost challenges. Hydrogen end-use technologies such as fuel cells are making rapid progress, but are still very expensive compared to existing power sources, although costs are projected to drop in mass production. Developing lightweight, compact, low cost hydrogen storage for vehicles remains an issue. Unlike gasoline or natural gas, hydrogen is not widely distributed today to consumers, and building a hydrogen infrastructure is seen as a daunting challenge.
In this testimony, I review the status of hydrogen technologies, and briefly describe near-term and long-term options for production and delivery of hydrogen for energy uses. The economics and environmental and energy supply aspects of different hydrogen pathways are discussed. Barriers to widespread use of hydrogen are described. Various scenarios are suggested for how a transition might take place from today's energy system to a hydrogen economy. Finally, I discuss the role of public policy in bringing about a hydrogen economy.
STATUS OF TECHNOLOGIES FOR HYDROGEN PRODUCTION AND DELIVERY
Hydrogen Production
Thermochemical Hydrogen Production from Fossil Fuels and Biomass
Hydrogen is widely used today in the chemical and oil refining industries. In the United States about one percent of primary energy use and five percent of natural gas use goes to hydrogen production. Most hydrogen today is made thermo-chemically by processing hydrocarbons (such as natural gas or coal) in high temperature chemical reactors to make a synthetic gas or ''syngas,'' comprised of hydrogen, carbon monoxide (CO), carbon dioxide (CO), water vapor (HO) and methane (CH). The syngas is further processed to increase the hydrogen content and pure hydrogen is separated out of the mixture.
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Steam Reforming of Natural Gas: About 95 percent of industrial hydrogen in the United States is produced thermo-chemically from natural gas via ''steam methane reforming,'' where natural gas reacts with steam in the presence of a catalyst to make a syngas. Steam methane reforming is a mature, commercial technology for large-scale hydrogen production for the chemical and oil refining industries. In many areas of the world where low cost natural gas is available, including the United States, steam reforming is generally the lowest cost source of hydrogen over a wide range of plant sizes. A variety of systems are under development and demonstration for small scale production of hydrogen from natural gas, at a scale appropriate for vehicle refueling stations or fuel cells in buildings.
Coal Gasification: Hydrogen can also be produced at large scale by gasification of solid fuels such as coal or petroleum coke. The chemical process technologies to produce hydrogen from coal are commercially available. Advanced systems for production of electricity and hydrogen from coal with CO capture are under development.
CO Capture and Sequestration: When hydrogen is made from fossil fuels, carbon dioxide can be separated, compressed, transported by pipeline and ''sequestered'' in secure underground storage sites such as deep saline aquifers or depleted oil and gas fields. This would allow continued use of fossil-derived transportation fuels, with near-zero emissions of carbon to the atmosphere. The technologies for capturing, transporting and injecting carbon dioxide into geological formations are well known in the oil industry where carbon dioxide is piped and injected into oil reservoirs for enhanced oil recovery. Several demonstrations of CO sequestration are ongoing in the United States and Europe. However, there are still many unanswered scientific and cost questions about long-term storage of carbon dioxide. Carbon capture and sequestration are important enabling technologies for fossil hydrogen as a long-term, low carbon emitting option.
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Gasification of Biomass and Wastes: Gasification of biomass or wastes (such as municipal solid waste) could be used to produce hydrogen, in a process similar to coal gasification. In regions with plentiful, low cost biomass resources, biomass gasification could be an economically attractive method of hydrogen production. The technologies to produce hydrogen via biomass gasification are near-term.
Electrolytic Hydrogen Production
In water electrolysis, electricity is passed through a conducting aqueous electrolyte, breaking down water into its constituent elements hydrogen and oxygen. Any source of electricity can be used, including intermittent (time varying) sources such as off-peak power and solar or wind electricity. Various types of electrolyzers are in use. Commercially available systems today are based on alkaline technology. Proton exchange membrane (PEM) electrolyzers have been demonstrated, are in the process of being commercialized and hold the promise of low cost. Experimental designs for electrolyzers have been developed using solid oxide electrolytes and operating at temperatures of 700 to 900C. High temperature electrolysis systems offer higher efficiency of converting electricity to hydrogen, as some of the work to split water is done by heat, but materials requirements are more severe. Advances in electrolysis technologies are likely to reduce costs and improve conversion efficiencies. The production cost of electrolytic hydrogen is strongly dependent on the cost of electricity. Electrolytic systems are generally competitive with steam reforming of natural gas only where low cost (1–2 cent/kWh) power is available. Electrolysis is a modular technology that can be used over a wide range of scales from household to large central hydrogen plants serving a large city. Small-scale electrolysis systems for hydrogen production at refueling stations are being demonstrated, as part of hydrogen vehicle programs.
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Hydrogen from Off-peak Power: Off-peak power could be a locally important resource for electrolytic hydrogen production, particularly in areas where low cost excess hydropower or geothermal power is available. However, the total amount of hydrogen that could be made from off-peak power is considerably less than projected future needs for fuels. While locally important, off-peak power is unlikely to supply all the hydrogen that would be needed in a hydrogen economy (Williams, 2003). Depending on the source of the off-peak electricity, the full fuel cycle emissions of carbon from hydrogen production could be zero (for hydropower or nuclear power) to quite large (for coal-fired power plants without CO sequestration). (''Full fuel cycle'' emissions include all emissions associated with extraction of primary resources such as coal or natural gas, conversion of primary resources to hydrogen, hydrogen transmission to users, and hydrogen use. For vehicles, ''full fuel cycle'' emissions are also referred to as ''well-to-wheels'' emissions.)
Hydrogen from Wind or Solar Power: It has been proposed that solar or wind electricity could be used to produce hydrogen electrolytically in a ''zero emission'' fuel cycle. Solar and wind are potentially huge resources that could produce enough hydrogen to satisfy human needs for fuels, with zero emissions of greenhouse gases and air pollutants. Solar photovoltaic (PV) and wind powered electrolysis are technically feasible: the issue is cost. Electrolytic hydrogen from intermittent renewable sources is generally two to three times more costly to produce than hydrogen made thermo-chemically from natural gas or coal, even when the costs of CO sequestration are added to the fossil hydrogen production cost. Solar or wind hydrogen costs more primarily because of the high cost of electricity input for electrolysis, as compared to the lower cost of feedstocks like natural gas or coal for thermo-chemical processes.
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Thermo-chemical water splitting cycles
It is thermodynamically possible to split water directly into hydrogen and oxygen using heat at 4000 C, although is impractical to work at these high temperatures with current materials. However, water splitting can also be accomplished through a complex series of coupled chemical reactions driven by heat at 400–900 C from nuclear reactors or solar concentrators. A number of thermo-chemical water splitting cycles have been investigated for use with nuclear or solar heat (YalcAE9in, 1989). A recent assessment of nuclear hydrogen production (Brown, 2002) identified the sulfur-iodine process as one of the most promising cycles. Thermo-chemical water splitting cycles are still undergoing research, and are not as technically mature as fossil hydrogen production systems such as steam reforming, coal gasification or water electrolysis, and should be considered a longer-term possibility. A recent analysis by Williams (2003) indicated that nuclear thermo-chemical hydrogen might cost about 80 percent more to produce than hydrogen from coal with CO sequestration, assuming all the cost and performance goals are met for thermo-chemical processes and nuclear plants.
Other Experimental Methods of Hydrogen Production
Fundamental research is being conducted on a variety of experimental methods of hydrogen production including direct conversion of sunlight to hydrogen in electrochemical cells and hydrogen production by biological systems such as algae or bacteria. These methods are far from commercialization.
Economics of hydrogen production systems
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In Figure 1, we estimate the capital cost of commercial and near-commercial hydrogen production systems versus size. Capital costs are given in terms of dollars per kilowatt ($/kW) of hydrogen output versus plant size. The plant size is given in kW and in terms of the number of hydrogen fuel cell cars that could be fueled. Small hydrogen production systems suitable for use at refueling stations are shown at the left, and large central hydrogen plants at the right. Steam methane reformers (SMR) and coal gasification plants are shown with and without CO capture. SMRs are available at both small and large size. When small SMRs are produced in quantity, with a standardized design, the capital cost is projected to decrease. (Note that the capital cost per kW is projected to fall by about a factor of 2 for each ten-fold increase in production of small SMR units. Small SMRs are under development, so these ''mass-produced'' costs have not yet been achieved in commercial systems.) Coal gasification systems are large plants that could serve about one million fuel cell cars. Coal gasification systems have a higher capital cost per unit of hydrogen output than steam reformers or advanced electrolyzers. We have also shown a data point for nuclear thermo-chemical hydrogen, although costs for this less developed option should be regarded as more uncertain than those shown for the other large scale technologies. Hydrogen production systems exhibit scale economy, both in plant size, and, for small systems in the number of units produced.
Hydrogen delivery to consumers: hydrogen storage, transmission, distribution and refueling
Hydrogen Storage
Unlike gasoline or alcohol fuels, which are easily handled liquids at ambient conditions, hydrogen is a light-weight gas, and has the lowest volumetric energy density of any fuel at normal temperature and pressure. Thus, hydrogen must be stored as a compressed gas (in high pressure gas cylinders), as a very low temperature or cryogenic liquid at –253C (in a special insulated vessel or dewar) or in a hydrogen compound where the hydrogen is easily removed by applying heat (such as a metal hydride). All these storage methods for hydrogen are well known in the chemical industry.
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Large-scale bulk storage of industrial hydrogen is typically done as a compressed gas or a cryogenic liquid. Very large quantities of hydrogen can be stored as a compressed gas in underground geological formations such as salt caverns or aquifers.
Hydrogen onboard storage systems for vehicles are bulkier, heavier and costlier than those for liquid fuels (like gasoline or alcohols) or compressed natural gas, but are less bulky and heavy than electric batteries. Even with these constraints, it appears that hydrogen could be stored in high pressure (5000 psi or 340 atmospheres) gas cylinders at acceptable cost, weight and volume for vehicle applications (James et al., 1996; Thomas et al., 1998). This is true because hydrogen can be used so efficiently that relatively little energy is needed onboard to travel a long distance.
Innovative storage methods such as hydrogen adsorption in carbon nano-structures and chemical hydrides are being researched (DOE Hydrogen Storage Workshop 2002). Development of a novel hydrogen storage medium that required neither high pressure nor low temperature would not only facilitate use of hydrogen on vehicles, but could reduce hydrogen infrastructure costs and complexity as well.
Hydrogen Transmission and Distribution
The technologies for routine handling of large quantities of hydrogen have been developed in the chemical industries. Hydrogen can be liquefied at low temperature (–253C) and delivered by cryogenic tank truck or compressed to high pressure and delivered by truck or gas pipelines. While most hydrogen is produced and consumed where it is needed, a small fraction (perhaps five percent) termed ''merchant hydrogen'' is distributed via truck or pipeline to distant users. The merchant hydrogen system could provide some of the technological building blocks to put a hydrogen refueling infrastructure in place. Developing a hydrogen infrastructure for vehicles poses special challenges in matching hydrogen supply to demand, discussed in the next section (chicken and egg problem).
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There are several hundred miles of high-pressure hydrogen pipelines in operation in the United States and in Europe. Long distance hydrogen pipeline transmission costs perhaps 1.5–3 times as much as natural gas transmission per unit of energy delivered.
For local distribution of hydrogen to users such as refueling stations, high pressure, small diameter pipelines analogous to natural gas utility ''mains'' might be used. The cost of building local distribution pipelines through an urban area is likely to be quite high, on the order of $1 million/mile, depending on the area. A large and geographically dense demand would be required for cost-effective local hydrogen pipelines. This might not occur until 10–25 percent of the cars in a typical urban area converted to hydrogen.
Like electricity, hydrogen can be made from a variety of widely available primary sources. This is quite different than the situation for natural gas or oil, which occur in limited geographical areas. Moreover, it is usually less expensive to bring a primary energy source natural gas or coal to a hydrogen plant located at the ''city gate,'' than it would be to make hydrogen at the gas field or coal mine and pipe it to the city. It is unlikely that transcontinental hydrogen pipelines would be built, unless there was a compelling reason to make hydrogen in a particular location far from demand. Rather hydrogen would be derived from regionally available resources.
Hydrogen Refueling Stations
The design of hydrogen refueling stations depends on how hydrogen is stored onboard the car, as well as demand patterns, and how many cars are served per day. A number of approaches are being tried for refueling hydrogen vehicles. There are currently about 60 hydrogen refueling stations worldwide for experimental vehicles.
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NEAR-TERM AND LONG-TERM PATHWAYS FOR HYDROGEN PRODUCTION AND DELIVERY
In Figures 2 and 3, we illustrate various options for supplying hydrogen transportation fuel in the near-term and long-term. (It is assumed that fuel is delivered to cars as a high pressure gas.)
Near-term options include:
Central steam reforming of natural gas with distribution of hydrogen via compressed gas or liquid hydrogen truck or pipeline.
Recovery of hydrogen from chemical processes with distribution of hydrogen.
Onsite production of hydrogen via small scale steam reforming of natural gas at the refueling station.
Onsite production of hydrogen via small scale water electrolysis at the refueling station.
Long-term central hydrogen supply options include:
Centralized production of hydrogen via electrolysis with distribution of hydrogen.
Solar or wind powered electrolysis.
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Gasification of coal, petcoke, biomass or wastes.
Thermo-chemical water splitting powered by high temperature nuclear or solar heat.
All the near-term options shown can be realized with commercially available technology, although small scale onsite production systems are undergoing rapid development for refueling station applications. Of the long-term options shown, all are based on commercial or near-commercial technology, except thermo-chemical water splitting systems, which should be regarded as less technically mature than gasification-based systems or electrolyzers.
Comparison of Hydrogen Production and Delivery Pathways
Economics
Delivered Cost of Hydrogen
In Figure 4, we compare the delivered cost of hydrogen transportation fuel from various near-term and long-term options. The delivered fuel cost includes the cost of producing hydrogen, distributing it to refueling stations and delivering it to vehicles at high pressure (5000 psi or 340 atmospheres). Costs are given in $/kilogram of hydrogen. (One kilogram of hydrogen contains roughly the same amount of energy as one gallon of gasoline. So a delivered fuel cost of $2/kg hydrogen is roughly equivalent to a fuel cost of $2/gallon gasoline.) Costs for the feedstocks for hydrogen production (natural gas, coal, etc.) are based on Energy Information Administration (EIA) projections for 2020. Although hydrogen costs more than gasoline, it can be used more efficiently in the car, so that the fuel cost per mile is comparable. For our assumptions (appropriate to U.S. conditions), fossil derived hydrogen offers the lowest cost. CO disposal adds relatively little to the cost of hydrogen production from coal. In general, the lowest cost option depends on the local costs of natural gas, coal, and electricity.
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Capital Cost of Hydrogen Infrastructure
In Figure 5, we show the capital cost of hydrogen infrastructure for various near- and long-term options. Infrastructure includes hydrogen production, storage, delivery and refueling. For fossil hydrogen production, cases with CO capture and sequestration are included. Depending on the technology, the infrastructure capital cost is several hundred to several thousand dollars per car. Infrastructures based on CO-free technologies cost more than earlier infrastructure that relies on steam reforming of natural gas. Of the long-term, low CO options, fossil hydrogen with CO sequestration appears to offer lower capital costs. This graph implies that putting a new hydrogen infrastructure in place for 100 million cars (about half the vehicles in the U.S.) might cost $50–$200 billion.
Emissions of Air Pollutants and Greenhouse Gases
The primary reasons for considering hydrogen as a future fuel are its potential benefits for the environment and energy supply security. Many alternative fuels and efficient, low emission end-use technologies could help address environmental and energy supply challenges. How does H compare to other options with respect to emissions of greenhouse gases and air pollutants and oil use? Several recent studies have estimated the ''well to wheels'' or full fuel cycle emissions of greenhouse gases and air pollutants for alternative fueled vehicles (Wang, 1999; Weiss et al., 2000; GM et al., 2001).
In Figures 6 and 7, full fuel cycle emissions of air pollutants and greenhouse gases are shown for various alternative fueled vehicles. We compare current gasoline internal combustion engine vehicles (ICEVs) and a variety of lightweight, advanced vehicles: (i) ICEVs fueled with gasoline or hydrogen (H); (ii) internal combustion engine/hybrid electric vehicles (ICE/HEVs) fueled with gasoline, compressed natural gas (CNG), Diesel, Fischer-Tropsch (F–T) liquids or H; and (iii) fuel cell vehicles (FCVs) fueled with gasoline, methanol or H. We consider H derived from natural gas and coal, with and without CO sequestration, and H derived from windpower via electrolysis.
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Emissions are normalized to an advanced, lightweight gasoline internal combustion engine vehicle with a fuel economy of 46 mpg, that satisfies stringent Tier II air pollution standards. Today's conventional gasoline cars are also shown for reference. We see that advanced internal combustion engine vehicles and ICE hybrid electric vehicles fueled with gasoline, CNG or Diesel fuel can result in reductions of both air pollutants and greenhouse gases, compared to today's gasoline ICEV technologies. With hydrogen produced from natural gas, well to wheels greenhouse gas emissions are somewhat reduced compared to gasoline or Diesel hybrids, and emissions of air pollutants are significantly lower. Hydrogen produced from renewable sources or fossil fuels with CO sequestration and used in fuel cells stands out as the options with by far the lowest emissions.
Energy Supply Security
It would be possible to make hydrogen from a variety of domestically available sources such as natural gas, coal or renewables. Widespread use of hydrogen would reduce costs associated with oil supply insecurity.
Quantifying the Benefits of Hydrogen: Environmental and Energy Supply Security Externality Costs
Hydrogen can reduce emissions of air pollutants and greenhouse gases compared to other transportation fuels, and decrease use of oil. What is the potential economic benefit?
It is difficult to estimate the external costs of energy precisely, because of the many uncertain variables that go into such a calculation.
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The damage costs of global climate change are highly uncertain. Costs of $50–$200/tonne Carbon are often used as a possible range for the cost of removing carbon from the energy system.
Air pollution damage costs have been estimated by various authors (Rabl and Spadaro, 2000; Delucchi, 2000). These are primarily associated with long-term health effects of particulates (small particles that are emitted directly from combustion or form in the atmosphere from combustion products). There is a large uncertainty in air pollution damage costs due to uncertainties in knowledge about 1) emissions from sources, 2) atmospheric transport and chemistry, 3) health impacts at a particular level of exposure, and 4) the economic value of damages (disease, premature death). As a result estimates for air pollution damages per kilogram of pollutant emitted range over 1–2 orders of magnitude.
There is also considerable uncertainty in how to value the costs of oil supply insecurity. We have used a value of $0.35–$1.05/gallon gasoline based on a projected cost of $20–$60 billion per year of expenditures to safeguard oil supply (Ogden, Williams and Larson, 2003).
In Figure 8, we have plotted the lifetime externality costs for different vehicle/fuel combinations over the lifetime of the car, based on an analysis in (Ogden, Williams and Larson, 2003). To derive the damage costs ($ per mile), we combined estimates of full fuel cycle emissions (kilograms per mile) of air pollutants and greenhouse gases (Wang, 1999) with estimates for the damage costs per kilogram of emission ($ per kilogram). To reflect the large uncertainties in, low, median and high externality cost estimates are shown for each vehicle/fuel option. In each bar, three stacked externality costs are shown, representing costs for global climate change, air pollution and oil supply insecurity. We see that there is a tremendous range of uncertainty in these costs. However, hydrogen fuel cell vehicles have by far the lowest externality costs of any option. And they are the least sensitive to the actual value of these highly uncertain costs. At the mid to high end of the externality cost range, hydrogen fuel cell vehicles have a lifetime externality cost that is several thousand dollars less than advanced internal combustion engine hybrid vehicles fueled with gasoline or Diesel. This means that the hydrogen fuel cell vehicle could cost more in the showroom, and still break even in lifecycle costs, if externalities are taken into account.
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A lifecycle cost comparison of alternative fueled automobiles is shown in Figure 9 (Ogden, Williams and Larson, 2003). The lifecycle cost includes vehicle first costs (assuming fuel cell vehicle costs projected for large scale mass production), fuel costs, and median externality costs. This shows that hydrogen fuel cell vehicles are approximately competitive with other advanced internal combustion engine cars, when externalities are valued at the median level in Figure 8. In Figure 10, we replot the lifecycle cost with low, median and high externalities. If the high end of the externality cost range is used (right side of Figure 10), the hydrogen fuel cell vehicle is the least cost option. If, on the other hand, externalities are not valued highly (left side of Figure 10), there is little economic reason to switch to hydrogen.
This analysis highlights the importance of externalities as a driver for adopting hydrogen as a transportation fuel. It also suggests that public policies reflecting the value of externalities will probably be needed to bring hydrogen fuel cell vehicles into widespread use.
BARRIERS TO ADOPTION OF HYDROGEN AS AN ENERGY CARRIER
Probably the most significant barriers to widespread use of hydrogen are the current high cost of hydrogen end-use technologies, and the current lack of a hydrogen infrastructure. There is reason for optimism that the cost of hydrogen technologies such as fuel cells can be reduced by large-scale mass production (Thomas et al., 1998). Various strategies for starting a hydrogen infrastructure have been proposed. These include starting with buses or other centrally refueled fleet vehicles, with marine applications, or with hydrogen co-produced in by natural gas reformers in cogeneration systems in buildings. While it is fairly straightforward to envision a fueling system for centrally refueled fleets, moving beyond fleets into general automotive markets is more problematic, especially if the market penetration rate is slow. There is a problem of matching supply to demand, as the market grows (chicken and egg problem).
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In addition, although there are adequate methods for large-scale industrial hydrogen production, distribution and storage, technologies better adapted for a hydrogen energy economy could speed progress. For example, development of low cost, onsite hydrogen production systems for refueling stations would facilitate providing a fuel supply for vehicles. The development of a better onboard hydrogen storage system could increase the range of vehicles, and reduce infrastructure costs. Development of carbon sequestration is key for the long-term viability of the fossil hydrogen option.
As mentioned above there is a need for policies reflecting the external costs of energy and encouraging the use of lower emitting, more energy efficient vehicles. There is uncertainty about future markets for hydrogen technologies, because it is uncertain how much its benefits will be valued. To quote from Ogden, Williams and Larson, 2003: ''One should expect that externality valuations will change over time both as a result of improved scientific understanding and as a result of shifting societal values. Although externality valuations might decline over time, the long-term trend in the making of energy policy has been toward ever tighter controls on emissions that are thought to entail environmental damages. This trend may well continue both as a result of improved scientific evidence of damages [e.g., Pope et al. (1995) in the case of health damage caused by small-particle air pollutants, and O'Neill and Oppenheimer (2002) in the case of climate change damages], and the increasing importance of environmental issues in the public mind as incomes rise (Williams, 2000). Moreover, as already noted, energy supply insecurity concerns, which were paramount in energy policymaking in the 1970s, have once more become a prominent concern.''
POSSIBLE ROUTES TO A HYDROGEN ECONOMY
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In industrialized countries, hydrogen might get started by ''piggybacking'' on the existing energy infrastructure. Initially, hydrogen could be made where it was needed from more widely available energy carriers, avoiding the need to build an extensive hydrogen pipeline distribution system. For example, in the United States, where low cost natural gas is widely distributed, hydrogen could be made initially from natural gas, in small reformers located near the hydrogen demand (e.g., at refueling stations). (Alternatively, hydrogen could be truck- or pipeline-delivered from a large plant serving both chemical and fuel needs, as with merchant hydrogen today.) As a larger, more concentrated demand builds, central ''city-scale'' H production with local pipeline distribution would become more economically attractive. Eventually, hydrogen might be produced centrally and distributed in local gas pipelines to users, as natural gas is today. A variety of sources of hydrogen might be brought in at this time, including decarbonized fossil fuels with CO sequestration or renewables. Urban areas with a high geographic density of energy demand would be early candidates for pipeline hydrogen systems. In developing countries, where relatively little energy infrastructure currently exists, centralized hydrogen production for vehicles might be phased in earlier. Regions with special concerns, such as islands that depend entirely on costly imported oil, might choose a hydrogen economy based on locally available resources. This path is being pursued in Iceland, which has announced its intention to switch to hydrogen fuel (produced via electrolysis using off-peak power) by 2030.
ENERGY POLICY AND THE HYDROGEN ECONOMY
Are Policies Necessary to Bring About a Hydrogen Economy?
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Our research suggests that external costs of energy could become a powerful economic driver for adopting hydrogen technologies (Ogden, Williams and Larson, 2003). Without these, there is little or no economic advantage in hydrogen over conventional technologies. This led us to conclude that a range of policies aimed at internalizing the environmental and security costs of energy will probably be needed to bring about a hydrogen economy. A world where hydrogen is widely used will be a world where externalities are more important than they are now. Political will and markets will evolve together, reflecting profound changes in how we view energy as a society. If we switch to hydrogen, a rapid transition may be more likely than a slow transition. (A rapid hydrogen infrastructure build up might allow a lower cost transition that a slow gradual buildup.)
Another factor that could accelerate the adoption of hydrogen is the potential market pull of fundamentally new products and services enabled by the use of hydrogen or fuel cells. Innovative designs coupled with clean energy could draw customers. Technology breakthroughs could also change the way hydrogen is produced, distributed and used. We did not consider these factors in our analysis. However, we still see a strong role for government leadership in helping nurture hydrogen technologies and coordinate the profound changes in the energy system that hydrogen could bring.
Policy tools to encourage use of hydrogen
Various policies could encourage development of hydrogen energy.
Research and development on key concepts, where a breakthrough could speed the adoption of hydrogen (e.g., hydrogen storage, small scale hydrogen production, CO sequestration).
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Demonstration of hydrogen production and end-use technologies.
Policies to encourage ''buy-down'' of hydrogen technologies such as fuel cells. For example, use of hydrogen in government fleets. Our analysis indicates that centrally refueled fleets are potentially large enough to accomplish significant cost reductions in hydrogen vehicle technologies, while gaining experience with hydrogen supply and refueling systems. This suggests coupling a Zero Emission Vehicle mandate with clean fleet requirements.
Policies to account for externalities: air pollution standards, feebates for clean efficient vehicles, fuel economy standards, gasoline tax, carbon tax.
When should these policies be put in place? The first two items are happening now. Using fleet regulations to speed adoption of alternative fuel technologies has been tried before, without resounding success. Still, it is one of the only approaches that avoids the chicken and egg infrastructure problem, at least for a while, and deserves reexamination for hydrogen. The hardest and most important set of policies may be the last. Putting policies in place that reflect externalities will require a strong societal consensus, and a shift in how we view energy.
Analysis by our group at Princeton University and other researchers suggests that, even under optimistic assumptions about progress in hydrogen and fuel-cell technologies, it would be several decades before hydrogen fuel-cell vehicle technologies could make a globally significant impact on reducing emissions. It might be necessary to postpone putting policies in place to deal with environmental and security issues, if hydrogen were the only technology that could address them. However, external costs of energy could be reduced significantly compared to today's cars with advanced internal combustion engine technologies available now or within a few years. We feel that it is very important in the near-term to encourage use of more efficient, less polluting internal combustion engine technologies using conventional fuels. These include more efficient gasoline and Diesel internal combustion engine hybrids.
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Still, hydrogen holds the greatest long-term promise for dealing simultaneously with air pollution, greenhouse gas emissions, and energy supply diversity. When hydrogen vehicles are ready, emissions could be reduced significantly compared to those from advanced internal combustion engine vehicles. This underscores the importance of research, development and demonstration of hydrogen technologies now, so they will be ready when we need them.
It is highly uncertain today what economic values should be assigned to external costs of energy (climate change, health effects from air pollution, oil supply insecurity). However, the trend of the past few decades has been toward ever-increasing regulation of emissions, and integrated assessment models of global climate change suggest that deep reductions in carbon emissions from energy use will be required to stabilize atmospheric carbon dioxide at acceptable levels. Depending on how we as a society ultimately value the external costs of energy, hydrogen might well become the long-term fuel of choice.
Should long-term concepts like hydrogen and fuel-cell vehicles have high priority, given that relatively modest improvements in more traditional internal combustion engine technologies could help address environmental and energy supply problems much sooner? In my view, hydrogen and fuel-cell technologies, although high-risk and long-term, have a potentially very high payoff. Therefore, they deserve significant government support now, as ''insurance,'' so that they will be ready in 15–20 years, if and when we need to deploy them widely.
I would encourage a comprehensive strategy, based on developing and encouraging the use of clean, efficient internal combustion engine vehicles in the near-term, coupled with a long-term strategy of research, development and demonstration of hydrogen and fuel cells. Consistent policies to encourage use of cleaner transportation systems with lower carbon emissions and to move away from our almost exclusive dependence on crude oil-derived transportation fuels would encourage adoption of advanced internal combustion engine vehicles in the near-term and, eventually, of hydrogen vehicles.
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References:
Brown, L.C., G.E. Besenbruch, and K.R. Schultz (General Atomics), A.C. Marshall, S.K. Showalter, and P.S. Pickard (Sandia National Laboratories), and J.F. Funk (University of Kentucky), 2002: Nuclear production of hydrogen using thermochemical water-splitting cycles, paper prepared for presentation at the American Nuclear Society Meeting Embedded Topical ''International Congress on Advanced Nuclear Power Plants (ICAPP),'' Hollywood, Florida, 9–13 June; to be published in the Proceedings of ICAPP.
Delucchi, M.A. (2000): ''Environmental externalities of motor vehicle use in the U.S.,'' Journal of Transportation Economics and Policy 34 (part 2) pp. 135–168.
General Motors Corp., Argonne National Laboratory, BP, ExxonMobil, and Shell, ''Well to Wheels Energy Use and Greenhouse Gas Emissions of Advanced Fuel/Vehicle Systems: North American Analysis, Executive Summary Report,'' April, 2001.
Hoffmann, P., Tomorrow's Energy: Hydrogen Fuel Cells and the Prospects for a Cleaner Planet, MIT Press, Cambride, MA, 2001.
Farrell, E., D.W. Keith and J.J. Corbett, ''A Strategy for Introducing Hydrogen into Transportation,'' preprint, to appear in Energy Policy 2003.
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James, B.D., G.N. Baum, F.D. Lomax, C.E. Thomas, I.F. Kuhn, ''Comparison of Onboard Hydrogen Storage for Fuel Cell Vehicles,'' Directed Technologies, Inc., prepared for Ford Motor Company, under prime contract DE–AC02–94CE50389 to the United States Department of Energy, May 1996.
Ogden, J.M., ''Prospects for Building a Hydrogen Energy Infrastructure,'' chapter in Annual Review of Energy and the Environment, Vol. 24, pp. 227–279, 1999.
Ogden, J.M., ''Modeling Infrastructure for a Fossil Hydrogen Energy System with CO Sequestration, Proceedings of the GHGT–6 Conference, October 2002, http://www.rite.or.jp/GHGT6/.
Ogden, J.M., ''Hydrogen: The Fuel of the Future?'' Physics Today, Vol. 55, No. 4, April 2002, pp. 69–74.
Ogden, J.M., R.H. Williams and E.D. Larson, ''A Societal Lifecycle Cost Comparison of Alternative Fueled Vehicles,'' accepted for publication in Energy Policy, September 2002, in press 2003.
Thomas, C.E., B.D. James, F.D. Lomax, and I.F. Kuhn, 1998b: Draft Final Report, Integrated Analysis of Hydrogen Passenger Vehicle Transportation Pathways, report to the National Renewable Energy Laboratory, U.S. Department of Energy, Golden, CO, Under Subcontract No. AXE–6–16685–01, March.
United States Department of Energy, ''Hydrogen Storage Workshop,'' Argonne National Laboratory, August 14, 2002, http://www.cartech.doe.gov/publications/2002hydrogen.html
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Wang, M.Q., M. Mintz, M. Singh, A. Vyas, and L. Johnson, 1999b: Assessment of PNGV Fuels Infrastructure, Phase 2: Final Report: Additional Capital Needs and Fuel Cycle Energy and Emissions Impacts, Report No. ANL–ESD–37, Center for Transportation Research, Argonne National Laboratory, prepared for the Office of Transportation Technologies, U.S. Department of Energy, Washington, DC, August.
Wang, M.Q. and H.-S. Huang, 1999: A Full Fuel-Cycle Analysis of Energy and Emissions Impacts of Transportation Fuels Produced from Natural Gas, Center for Transportation Research, Argonne National Laboratory, prepared for the United States Department of Energy Office of Transportation Technologies, Report No. ANL/ESD–40. December.
Weiss, M., J. Heywood, E. Drake, A. Schafer, and F. AuYeung, 2000: On the Road in 2020, MIT Energy Laboratory Report #MIT EL 00–003, Cambridge, MA, October.
Williams, Robert H., ''Decarbonized Fossil Energy Carriers And Their Energy Technological Competitors,'' Prepared for the IPCC Workshop on Carbon Capture and Storage, 18–21 November 2002, Regina, Saskatchewan, Canada.
YalcAE9in, S., 1989: A review of nuclear hydrogen production, International Journal of Hydrogen Energy, 14 (8):551–561.
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BIOGRAPHY FOR JOAN M. OGDEN
Dr. Joan M. Ogden, Princeton Environmental Institute, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ 08544; Phone: (609) 258–5470; E-mail: ogden@princeton.edu
SYNOPSIS: My graduate education centered on physics, mathematics and numerical simulation techniques, culminating in a Ph.D. in theoretical plasma physics in 1977. For several years I did research in nuclear fusion energy, first as a research associate at the Princeton Plasma Physics Laboratory and later as an independent consultant to the U.S. Department of Energy. During this time I also worked in other areas of applied physics, particularly the field of image processing where I hold several patents. A developing interest in broader energy questions led me to Princeton University's Center for Energy and Environmental Studies, Princeton Environmental Institute, where I have worked since 1985. Most of my research has involved technical and economic assessments of new energy technologies, characterized by low emissions of pollutants and greenhouse gases and high conversion efficiency. Particular areas of interest are production of low polluting fuels, the use of hydrogen as an energy carrier and applications of fuel cell technology in transportation and stationary power production. Over the past several years I have carried out a series of assessments of fuel cell vehicles and hydrogen refueling infrastructure for the USDOE Hydrogen R&D Program and Fuel Cell Program. I have served on a number of high level panels for the US Department of Energy on Hydrogen, Carbon Sequestration and Fuel Cell Research, most recently as a contributor to the November 2001 Hydrogen Vision Meeting and leader of the ''Integration Team'' at the April 2002 Hydrogen Roadmap meeting. I have published over 100 technical articles on energy topics including one book, six book chapters and numerous peer reviewed articles and conference presentations.
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EDUCATION:
B.S. with high honors, mathematics, University of Illinois, Champaign-Urbana, 1970.
Ph.D. in physics, University of Maryland, College Park, MD, 1977 (thesis: plasma physics theory, computer simulation).
Post-Doctoral Research Associate, Princeton Plasma Physics Laboratory, Princeton University 1977–1979.
POSITIONS HELD:
Center for Energy and Environmental Studies, Princeton Environmental Institute, Princeton University
Research Scientist (1993–present)
Research Staff (1987–1993)
Hewlett Fellowship (1986–1987)
NSF Visiting Professorship for Women (1985–1986)
RCA David Sarnoff Research Center, Princeton, NJ
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Consultant (1982–1984)
Member of the Technical Staff (1984–1985)
Self-Employed Consultant in Applied Physics 1980–1985
Clients included U.S. Department of Energy; Science Applications, Inc.; RCA David Sarnoff Research Center; Princeton University
Selected Publications
J.M. Ogden and R.H. Williams, Solar Hydrogen: Moving Beyond Fossil Fuels, World Resources Institute, Washington DC, October 1989.
J.M. Ogden and J. Nitsch, ''Solar Hydrogen,'' Chapter 22 in T. Johansson, H. Kelly, A.K.N. Reddy and R.H. Williams, Renewable Energy: Fuels and Electricity from Renewable Sources, Island Press, Washington, DC, 1993.
J.M. Ogden and T. Kreutz, M. Steinbugler, Fuels for fuel cell vehicles: vehicle design and infrastructure issues,'' Society of Automotive Engineers paper No. 982500, October 1998.
J.M. Ogden, ''Developing a Refueling Infrastructure for Hydrogen Vehicles: A Southern California Case Study,'' International Journal of Hydrogen Energy, Vol. 24, pp. 709–730, 1999.
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J.M. Ogden, M. Steinbugler and T. Kreutz, ''A Comparison of Hydrogen, Methanol and Gasoline as Fuels for Fuel Cell Vehicles,'' Journal of Power Sources, Vol. 79, pp. 143–168, 1999.
J.M. Ogden, ''Prospects for Building a Hydrogen Energy Infrastructure,'' chapter in Annual Review of Energy and the Environment, Vol. 24, pp. 227–279, 1999.
J. M. Ogden, ''Modeling Infrastructure for a Fossil Hydrogen Energy System with CO Sequestration,'' Proceedings of the GHGT–6 Conference, October 2002, http://www.rite.or.jp/GHGT6/.
J.M. Ogden, R.H. Williams and E.D. Larson, ''A Societal Lifecycle Cost Comparison of Alternative Fueled Vehicles,'' accepted for publication in Energy Policy, September 2002, in press.
J.M. Ogden, ''Hydrogen: The Fuel of the Future?'' Physics Today, Vol. 55, No. 4, April 2002, p. 69–74.
J.M. Ogden, ''Alternative Fuels and Prospects—Overview,'' chapter to appear in the Handbook of Fuel Cell Technology, John Wiley and Sons, 2003.
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Chairman BOEHLERT. Thank you very much. Dr. Burns.
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STATEMENT OF DR. LAWRENCE D. BURNS, VICE PRESIDENT, RESEARCH DEVELOPMENT AND PLANNING FOR GENERAL MOTORS
Dr. BURNS. I appreciate the opportunity to be here today to testify on behalf of General Motors. And I am Larry Burns, Vice President of R&D and Planning for GM. I have responsibility for driving innovation and to GM's vehicles today, and directing GM's reinvention of the automobile around promising new technologies like fuel cells and bi-wire systems. GM's goal is to realize sustainable mobility vehicles that are more exciting, more compelling, and more affordable than the vehicles that people have available today. And these are vehicles that people really want to drive and buy.
We believe fuel cells and hydrogen hold the key to realizing this goal. We expect to begin selling hydrogen fuel cell vehicles by 2010. And GM hopes to be the first manufacture to sell one million fuel cell vehicles profitably. In support of these goals, today, GM and Shell are announcing a new demonstration program in Washington DC area designed to be a real world trial of hydrogen fuel cells and hydrogen fueling technology.
Before we see fuel cell vehicles on the roadways in large volumes, however, a number of technical challenges must be addressed. We see cost, durability, fuel infrastructure, and storage as the major barriers to commercialization of fuel cell vehicles. In addition, more emphasis must be placed on hydrogen production emphasis or technology research.
With respect to the vehicle, hydrogen storage is the toughest hurdle. Liquid and compressed gas and solid state storage methods are all promising, but present technical challenges and cost challenges. GM has demonstrated both liquid and compressed hydrogen storage tanks in our prototype vehicles. And we are also doing research on various forms of solid state storage, but given the magnitude of the storage challenge, a significantly expanded federal R&D effort in this area is both necessary and appropriate.
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If we are successful in bringing fuel cell vehicles to market at the beginning of the next decade, the result will be a growing demand for conveniently available hydrogen. Looking out over a 20 year time frame, we believe we should begin today to look for better and more sustainable means of producing hydrogen as a vehicle fuel. Like hydrogen storage, we believe this is a challenge and also warrants a significantly expanded R&D effort.
Cost is another major challenge, and we are making very important progress in this area. GM has achieved a cost improvement with each new generation of our fuel cell stack technology. In addition, we believe that revolutionary vehicle designs, like our autonomy concept and high wire prototype, which combine fuel cells and by-wire electronics and other advanced technologies, could make fuel cell vehicles more affordable and even more compelling. These designs enable dramatically fewer vehicle components, a long life chassis, and significantly fewer vehicle architecture, a result of which have a potential to reduce manufacturing costs.
If we were producing our current fuel cell technology at a scale of over 1,000 stacks per year, we estimate that we could—would be able to produce these at a cost ten times higher than what is required to support wide-spread affordable application in automobiles. But also, this is within what is required for competitive distributed generation products. To put this magnitude of improvement in perspective, the computer industry has brought down the cost of computer memory over a 15 year period by a factor of 3,000, from $17,000 per gigabyte to $6.00 per gigabyte. And the challenge we face with fuel cells requires the same type of molecular material breakthroughs.
Similarly, we do not think the cost of producing hydrogen will be a show-stopper. Petroleum companies have said hydrogen can be generated from natural gas at the refinery at a cost that is comparable on a per mile cost basis to conventional fuels, taken into account the efficiency of fuel cells. Most of the cost of hydrogen comes from its expense of transporting and dispensing it.
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The fueling infrastructure is another challenge. However, one of the most exciting aspects of hydrogen is that there are many pathways for producing and delivering it. Hydrogen could be generated at a local filling station, as we know them today, using an appliance like device called the reformer. It also has the potential for refueling of home or places of business using an appliance called an electrolaphiser or natural gas reformer. This takes advantage of the fact that water and electricity and a natural gas are already available in our homes and in many of our businesses.
GM sees distributed generation as a key stepping stone to hydrogen fuel cells vehicles in the early development of the hydrogen infrastructure. We also recently announced that we will conduct a demonstration of a 75 kilowatt direct hydrogen unit in both the U.S. and Japan. This system is intended for uninterruptible power supply systems, such as hospitals, high-reliability data communications, and to handle peak power demands. We expect to market this unit in the 2005 timeframe. And as to reduce the cost to get to automobile scale applications, you open up many attractive business applications for fuel cells and stationary.
GM has always believed that it will take a three-way partnership involving the auto industry, energy companies, and government to successfully commercialize hydrogen fuel cells for vehicles and stationary applications. We applaud President Bush's new hydrogen initiative and his vision for the hydrogen future, and the fact that he has elevated it as a national priority. We would welcome a measure welcome a major new national R&D initiative on hydrogen storage and production. We also believe the Department of Transportation should undeclared hydrogen as a hazardous material and treat it as a fuel. Next, the government should take the lead on development of a national template for the codes and standards that will be required for hydrogen and fuel cells. And finally, every federal agency will have a role in the transition to the hydrogen economy, and they should begin that process today by elevating the use and impact of hydrogen and fuel cell technologies on their operations.
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To this end, I would just caution that demonstration projects are costly to do, and they require significant resources. The same resources we are using to refine the fuel cell technology, particularly on the vehicle side. In the next couple of years, the goal should be to have limited number of small scale but integrated demonstration projects, and then later in the decade to expand those projects.
Within GM, the magnitude of our fuel cell investment creates an intense business dilemma—the choice between using our resources to achieve a revolutionary vision or funding the aggressive pursuit of more incrementally focused initiatives. The decisions that we must make in resolving this internal debate will certainly be influenced by the development of a long-term stable set of government policies and initiatives upon which we can properly balance the investment of our finite financial and technical resources. Thank you very much.
[The prepared statement of Dr. Burns follows:]
PREPARED STATEMENT OF LAWRENCE D. BURNS
I appreciate the opportunity to be here today to testify on behalf of General Motors. I am Larry Burns, Vice President of Research & Development and Planning for GM. I have responsibility for driving innovation into today's vehicles and directing GM's reinvention of the automobile around promising new technologies like fuel cells and by-wire systems. GM's goal is to realize sustainable mobility with exciting, compelling, and affordable vehicles that people will want to drive and buy.
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We are on record saying that we expect to begin selling hydrogen fuel cell vehicles by 2010, and GM hopes to be the first manufacturer to sell one million fuel cell vehicles. In support of these goals, in the next few years, we will be fielding small demonstration fleets to test the viability of fuel cell technology. In fact, later today, GM and Shell will announce a new demonstration program in the Washington, D.C. area designed to be a real-world trial of hydrogen fuel cell vehicles and hydrogen fueling technology. Larger fleet demonstrations will follow as we ramp up to commercialization.
Before we see fuel cell vehicles on the roadways in large volumes, however, a number of technical challenges must be addressed. The Department of Energy's recently released Fuel Cell Report to Congress identifies cost, durability, fuel infrastructure, and hydrogen storage as the major barriers to commercialization. In addition, the Report states that more emphasis must be placed on research into hydrogen production technologies.
With respect to the vehicle, hydrogen storage is the toughest hurdle. Liquid, compressed gas, and solid-state storage methods are all promising, but all present technical challenges. GM has demonstrated both liquid and compressed hydrogen storage tanks in our prototype vehicles. We are also doing research on various forms of solid-state storage, such as metal and chemical hydrides. But, given the magnitude of the storage challenge, a significantly expanded federal R&D effort in this area is both necessary and appropriate.
If we are successful in bringing fuel cell vehicles to the market at the beginning of the next decade, the result will be a growing demand for the production of hydrogen. Looking out over a 20-year timeframe, we believe we should begin today to look for better and more sustainable means of producing hydrogen as a vehicle fuel. Like hydrogen storage, we believe this challenge also warrants a significantly expanded federal R&D effort.
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As the DOE report correctly points out, cost is another major challenge, but we are making progress in this area, too. GM has achieved a cost improvement with each new generation of our fuel cell stack technology. In addition, we believe that revolutionary vehicle designs like our AUTOnomy concept and Hy-wire prototype—which combine fuel cells, by-wire electronics, and other advanced technologies in new and unique ways—could make fuel cell vehicles much more affordable. These designs enable dramatically fewer vehicle components, a longer-life chassis, and significantly fewer vehicle architectures, all of which have the potential to reduce manufacturing costs.
Since 1988, the computer industry has brought down the cost of computer memory from $17,000 per gigabyte to $6 in 2001—a factor of 3,000 reduction. The cost challenge we face with the fuel cell requires the same type of molecular material breakthroughs, but is an order of magnitude less that what the computer industry had to accomplish. We are confident that we have a really clear definition of the technical milestones and cost targets that we need to meet on each subsystem to achieve total system affordability.
Similarly, we do not think the cost of producing hydrogen will be a ''show-stopper.'' Petroleum companies have said hydrogen can be generated from natural gas at the refinery at a cost that is comparable to conventional fuel costs. Most of the cost of hydrogen comes from the expense of transporting and dispensing it. The good news in this arena is that there is a lot of experience worldwide generating hydrogen and maintaining hydrogen pipeline. Our modeling has indicated that if we used today's technology, we are within a factor of 1.3 of where we need to be on the cost of hydrogen for transportation applications—when compared to U.S. gasoline prices and taking advantage of the inherent energy efficiency of fuel cell vehicles.
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The fueling infrastructure is another challenge. But one of the most exciting aspects of hydrogen is that there are many scenarios for producing and delivering it. Hydrogen could be generated at local filling stations as we know them today—with everything up to the storage tank remaining the same. But there is also the potential to refuel at home or at a place of business, using a simple appliance that electrolyzes water. Since the vast majority of homes are already plumbed with water and wired with electricity, it would be very easy to install this new appliance in the garage. A similar situation is possible with natural gas, which is piped into many homes and businesses—a reformer could generate hydrogen from the natural gas.
GM sees distributed generation as a key stepping stone to hydrogen fuel cell vehicles and the early development of hydrogen infrastructure. Last year, we teamed with Hydrogenics, one of our fuel cell partners, to announce our first commercial product—a 25-kilowatt generator designed to keep wireless phone towers operating in the event of an interruption in the power grid. A prototype unit is now being field tested in California. We also announced a 75-kilowatt fuel cell that runs on hydrogen. We recently announced that we will conduct a demonstration of a 75-kW direct hydrogen unit in both the U.S. and Japan. This system is intended for uninterruptible power supply systems, such as hospitals, high-reliability data communications, and to handle peak power demands. We expect to market the unit by 2005. Our intent is to move down the cost curve to enable distributed generation as quickly as possible in order to generate revenues that we can apply to commercializing fuel cell vehicles.
GM has always believed that it will take a three-way partnership involving the auto industry, energy companies, and government to successfully commercialize hydrogen fuel cells for vehicles and stationary applications. We applaud President Bush's new hydrogen initiative and his vision of the hydrogen future, and we would like to see this vision further elevated as a national priority. Specifically, we would welcome a major new national R&D initiative on hydrogen storage and production. In addition to R&D, there are other efforts the Federal Government should take immediately. First, the Department of Transportation should ''undeclare'' hydrogen as a hazardous material and treat it as a fuel. Second, the government should take the lead on development of a national template for the codes and standards that will be required for hydrogen and fuel cells. Third, every federal agency will have a role in the transition to the hydrogen economy, and they should begin that process today by evaluating the use and impact of hydrogen and fuel cell technologies on their operations.
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To this, let me add one caution regarding demonstration projects. We believe that we have much to learn from demonstrations that integrate hydrogen production, stationary fuel cells, vehicle refueling, and fuel cell vehicle production. However, each of these projects is in some way a distraction from our efforts to refine fuel cell technology—particularly on the vehicle side. In the next couple of years, the goal should be to have a limited number of small-scale—but integrated—demo projects to learn about the practical challenges and logistical barriers to an integrated hydrogen economy. Later in this decade, we should expand to some larger-scale demonstrations that begin to enable the hydrogen infrastructure and prepare early customers for the commercialization of fuel cell vehicles.
Within General Motors, the magnitude of our fuel cell investment creates an intense business dilemma—the choice between using our resources to achieve a revolutionary vision. . .or funding the aggressive pursuit of more incrementally focused initiatives. The decisions that we must make in resolving this internal debate will certainly be influenced by the development of a long-term, stable set of governmental policies and initiatives upon which we can properly balance the investment of our finite financial and technical resources.
GM is marching down the cost curve on fuel cell technology and we are confident we will have hydrogen fuel cells that are cost competitive for distributed generation well before 2010. Based on this timetable, we also anticipate that we will be able to make business decisions with respect to the commercial viability of hydrogen fuel cell vehicles well before the 2015 timeframe.
Thank you. I look forward to responding to your questions.
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BIOGRAPHY FOR LAWRENCE D. BURNS
PROFILE
Larry Burns was named Vice President of General Motors Research & Development and Planning in May, 1998. In this post, he oversees GM's advanced technology and innovation programs and also has responsibility for the company's product, capacity, and business plans. He is a member of the Automotive Strategy Board, GM's highest-level management team.
In addition to driving innovation into today's vehicles, Larry is championing GM's ''reinvention'' of the automobile around promising new technologies like fuel cells and drive-by-wire systems. The goal is to realize sustainable mobility with vehicles that are affordable and aspirational. This is the key to providing the freedom benefits of ''automobility'' to significantly more of the world's population than the 12 percent who own vehicles today—without compromising future generations.
Larry began his GM career in 1969 as a member of the R&D staff, where his research focused on transportation, logistics, and production systems. He subsequently held executive positions in several GM divisions in the areas of product program management, quality, production control, industrial engineering, and product and business planning.
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Larry holds a Ph.D. in civil engineering from the University of California at Berkeley. He also has a Master's degree in engineering/public policy from the University of Michigan and a Bachelor's degree in mechanical engineering from General Motors Institute (now Kettering University).
Larry serves on the boards of the Deafness Research Foundation and the University of Michigan's Center for Hearing Disorders. His interests include running, skiing, backpacking, and spending time with his family. Larry and his wife CeCe have two daughters, Natalee, 15, and Hilary, 11.
Chairman BOEHLERT. Thank you very much. Mr. Huberts.
STATEMENT OF DONALD P.H. HUBERTS, CHIEF EXECUTIVE OFFICER FOR SHELL HYDROGEN
Mr. HUBERTS. Thank you, Mr. Chairman. I am Don Huberts, the Chief Executive Officer of Shell Hydrogen. I appreciate the opportunity to testify before the Science Committee. Shell Hydrogen is the global business division of the Shell Group of Companies. Shell is a global company with operations in over 135 companies. We have a 90 year history in the U.S., and our U.S. assets comprise almost a third of Shells global assets, and reflect all aspects of the energy business, exploration and production, all products, gas and power, chemicals, renewables, and hydrogen. And Shell is the leading retailer of transportation fuels in the U.S.
Shell Hydrogen was established in 1999. We are committed to the commercial development hydrogen energy technologies, including hydrogen storage, reforming fossil fuels, and hydrogen purification. We are active in a number of inaugurative cooperative programs, partnerships, and joint ventures, and I have provided more details on these in my written testimony.
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The goal is to meet the future energy needs of our customers and build a sustainable, therefore comfortable, business. With this background, let me turn to the two principle points in my testimony.
First, the future of our energy and hydrogen infrastructure is highly uncertain. A significant hydrogen economy could emerge in 2020 or not until 2050. It depends on complex cycle drivers, what the consumers want, and unpredictable events, as well as on technology breakthroughs.
Shell's views about the future of energy are shaped by scenario work we have been using for years. The scenarios don't predict future events, but they are credible stories about how the future might develop. They look at forces that might push the future. There is a complex interplay between science and technology on the one hand, and social, political and market developments on the other hand. Our recent scenarios look at three key drivers that have the potential to bring fundamental change to the energy system. First of all, what constraints could occur on our global energy resources? Secondly, what changes could occur in peoples' personal preferences, their lifestyle choices, the priorities, the place on environmental concerns; and thirdly, what technology advances could occur that could transform the future. Will existing paradigms be broken, just as the Sony Walkman and mobile phones did?
Shell's most recent scenario work tells two different but compelling stories about the future, based on a different range of assumptions about these three key drivers. But the two stores had important features in common. Natural gas will play a vital role in the next 20 years as a bridge to the future. As new vehicle technologies emerge, there will be pressure on the oil market.
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In the long-term, the potential exists for renewable energy sources to be the primary sources of energy if robust energy storage solutions are found. In some looking ahead to the future of hydrogen is highly uncertain because we just don't know what forces will emerge to shape it.
That brings me to my principle point. Governments can play an important play. Governments can stimulate hydrogen technologies and provide incentives. However, governments must do so with a sustained commitment, and now bow in and out. At the same time, governments must allow the markets to work and give consumers the freedom to make commercial choices. Otherwise, money and time is wasted, playing to political choices that turn out not to be commercially the best options. Government policies can make or break projects of technologies; subsidies meant to encourage an industry can sometimes wreck it. Policies have to be intelligent and properly structured, not just well-meant.
Previous experiences with alternative fuels, such as compressed natural gas, show that without prolonged government engagement and strong visible and vocal commitment to deliver a shift in the fuel use in society, these initiatives are destined to fail and remain mesh products.
Policies related to the hydrogen and fuel industries are only now beginning to be formed. It is very important that they are carefully framed and appreciate the challenges. The Federal Government can provide fiscal support and R&D funding, such as the President's recent hydrogen and fuel cell—Hydrogen and FreedomCAR Proposals. Demonstration programs, like that in California, will be critical in moving forward.
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Significant work needs to be done in a number of areas, hydrogen production, storage, purification, and other infrastructure related issues. Government and industry working together can provide maximum support.
But let me be clear, technology alone can not bridge the gap in cost of producing hydrogen. Hydrogen is made either from electricity, by spinning water, or it is extracted from natural gas or other fossil fuels. Therefore, the energy in the hydrogen will always be more expensive than that of the sources used to make it. Instead, hydrogen will become competitive due to its other benefits, cleaner air, lower greenhouse gas emissions, to greater efficiency or sequestration, and decreased reliance on foreign energy sources, and improved energy supplies security.
Further, the transition to hydrogen will be a long and capital intensive process. Even with sustained and consistent government support, the huge investment for infrastructure changeover will be required. Industry can only support this if it can be done on a commercial basis.
The initial investment has been estimated by Shell at round 20 billion dollars for the U.S. alone to supply two percent of the cars with hydrogen by 2020, and to make hydrogen available at 25 percent of the existing gasoline retail stations. In the subsequent decades, further buildup of the hydrogen infrastructure will require hundreds of billions of U.S. dollars.
The government can help mitigate some of the risks around such large investments. Ultimately, however, most of the capital will come from the private sector, so it will be consumers that push the effort. The Federal Government should work with industry and other governments to harmonize the international codes and standards. Public/private partnerships can work together to increase public awareness and education. I will be happy to answer any questions.
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[The prepared statement of Mr. Huberts follows:]
PREPARED STATEMENT OF DONALD P.H. HUBERTS
Thank you, Mr. Chairman. I am Don Huberts, the Chief Executive Officer of Shell Hydrogen.(see footnote 5) I appreciate the opportunity to testify before the Science Committee today to discuss the path to a hydrogen economy—the barriers we face and the opportunities presented in transitioning towards a hydrogen infrastructure.
As the CEO of Shell Hydrogen, I am responsible for leading the development and execution of all the global business activities of the Royal Dutch/Shell Group relating to hydrogen fuel and fuel cells. This includes our activities in hydrogen refueling and fuel cell power generation, and our development of hydrogen generation, storage, and purification technologies. Shell Hydrogen has offices in Houston, Amsterdam, and Tokyo and through its local U.S. affiliate has many activities in the United States. For example, Shell is a founding member of the California Fuel Cell Partnership, of which I was Chairman elect during 2002. Shell is also a sustaining member of the National Hydrogen Association. I will expand on our activities below.
Shell Hydrogen was established in 1999 as a global business division of the Royal Dutch/ Shell Group of Companies (Shell), one of the largest energy companies in the world, with operations in over 135 countries. Shell is the leading retailer of transportation fuels in the U.S. and in many other countries throughout the world. Shell companies in the U.S. comprise 28 percent of the assets of Royal Dutch/Shell; as such, they represent a very important part of the Group's portfolio. Shell companies in the U.S. are involved in all aspects of the energy business—exploration & development, oil products, gas & power, chemicals, renewables, and hydrogen. Our heritage in this country spans more than 90 years, and while you have likely heard a lot during the past ten years about U.S. businesses ''going global,'' we have operated that way for a long, long time. In fact, we are one of the world's first truly multi-national companies.
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Shell's commitment to sustainable development is demonstrated by our actions. Sir Philip Watts, the Chairman of our Committee of Managing Directors, is the co-chairman of the World Business Council for Sustainable Development. Shell has incorporated the principles of sustainable development into its strategies, operations, processes, budgeting, and training and reward systems. We are developing alternative energy sources, such as renewables and hydrogen, which we aim to grow into viable businesses that will meet our customers' future energy needs.
We report annually on our actions to meet our economic, environmental and social responsibilities in our publication The Shell Report: People, Planet and Profits, a public document that is available as a booklet or on-line.
Out of this commitment, Shell Hydrogen was established to create business opportunities related to hydrogen energy, including: developing and investing in key technologies for hydrogen storage, reforming fossil fuels, and hydrogen purification; and forming cooperative ventures and partnerships to explore commercially viable approaches to building a hydrogen economy. Shell Hydrogen is committed to the rapid development-to-market application of hydrogen energy technology by bringing together manufacturers, suppliers, distributors, legislators, investors, and consumers. This has led to a number of innovative cooperative programs, partnerships, and joint ventures on an international scale through local affiliates.
California: Shell is cooperating with more than 20 partners from the automotive, energy, fuel cell industries, and government to prepare the path for bringing commercially viable solutions to the densely populated state of California that seeks to improve environmental standards in the face of air-quality problems and increasing energy demands. In West Sacramento, the Partnership has opened a demonstration hydrogen fuel-cell project. A fleet of hydrogen-powered vehicles are serviced at a compressed-hydrogen fuelling station before being operated on local highways.
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Iceland: Shell is working as a partner in Icelandic New Energy Ltd. in a pioneering project that involves all phases of developing a hydrogen-based economy. It involves the manufacture of hydrogen and development of a basic hydrogen infrastructure and the study of vehicle performance under real conditions. In the first phase, three hydrogen-powered buses, fuelled by compressed hydrogen made from water, will be introduced, possibly followed by a transition to an entirely hydrogen-driven public transport fleet. The ultimate goal is that all passenger vehicles, trucks, and eventually shipping will be converted by 2030. In addition, the project envisions development of auxiliary markets for smaller fuel cells and bottled hydrogen, and longer-term, bulk exports of hydrogen.
Japan: Shell is involved in a three-year project in Atsugi laboratory to develop a liquid hydrocarbon fuel reformer capable to producing and dispensing hydrogen on the retail forecourt of an existing service station. The R&D effort will use catalytic partial oxidation (CPO) to split hydrogen from gasoline, ensuring that sulphur, carbon and nitrogen are eliminated and leaving only pure hydrogen for fuel-cell use. Another target is increasing the reformer size from the current 50-kW unit to one capable of producing 1,000 kg of hydrogen daily (capable of fuelling 200 cars).
Furthermore, together with Showa Shell Sekiyu K.K., the first hydrogen refueling station will be demonstrated in Tokyo. This is part of the Japan Hydrogen and Fuel Cell Demonstration Project, a program sponsored by the Japanese Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry to build five hydrogen refueling stations in the Tokyo metropolitan area. The station will provide liquid and compressed hydrogen to a fleet of prototype fuel cell vehicles provided by several automotive companies, which will be used on the city's streets. Showa Shell will operate the station for two years from April 2003.
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The Netherlands: In Amsterdam, Shell is involved with the Amsterdam Transport Company (GVB) to test three hydrogen fuel-cell buses for two years as part of the Clean Urban Transport for Europe, or CUTE Project. Currently the Project has fuel-cell demonstration projects in nine European cities and is an initiative of the European Union. Delivery of the first buses is expected in the 3rd quarter 2003, with a hydrogen fuelling installation in place by June. Compressed hydrogen fuel will be produced on site at an installation being developed at the GVB Bus Depot North.
Technology: In addition to these groundbreaking early fueling initiatives, Shell Hydrogen companies invest in technologies that are necessary to enable the hydrogen economy. Shell has been making significant investments in hydrogen production, as our companies are the fourth largest producers of hydrogen in the world, mostly for use in our refineries and chemical plants. The key challenge is to extend hydrogen from being used primarily for industrial purposes to becoming a transportation fuel.
Because distribution costs are high, it is likely that small-scale generation by either natural gas reforming or water electrolysis will occur. Shell is investing in reforming and purification technologies through its affiliates HydrogenSource LLC in Connecticut and QuestAir Inc in Vancouver, Canada, to ensure cheap and clean hydrogen is available when it is needed. Through our experience in these ventures, and with the promise offered by these companies' technologies, we believe that small-scale hydrogen production costs will continue to come down over the next 5–10 years.
Besides reducing the costs of cost of production, new and innovative ways must be developed to store hydrogen. To address this need, Shell and its partners are investing in Hera Hydrogen Storage Systems, which develops solid-state hydrogen storage solutions based on metal- or chemical-hydrides. The aim is to store enough hydrogen in a small space to power many different fuel cell applications. Currently, because hydrogen is such a light, diffuse gas, it is still difficult to store enough hydrogen on board a vehicle to give it adequate range between refueling. Shell intends to sell hydrogen as a fuel for fuel cell cars and other hydrogen-consuming fuel cell applications once the market develops, and our investments in Hera, HydrogenSource and QuestAir support that aim.
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The pace of change and the level of research into hydrogen and fuel cells have been accelerating for a number of years. Many of the technologies in existence today hold promise for initial commercial deployment in the coming 3 to 5 years. We consider it likely that PEM fuel cells, which operate at up to 200F, will be the first to commercialize, initially in portable power units, then for stationary power, and finally for transportation first in fleets, and then from around 2010 in passenger vehicles.
The Path to a Hydrogen Economy
Today I would like to share with you two topics of direct relevance to a hydrogen economy and hydrogen infrastructure:
1. Shell's Scenarios on the future of energy, including hydrogen, to 2050;
2. The role of government in fostering the hydrogen economy.
The most important points I want you take away from my testimony are:
1. The future of our energy and hydrogen infrastructures is highly uncertain. A significant hydrogen economy may emerge by 2020 or not until 2050, depending as much on complex societal drivers and unpredictable disruptive events, as on technology breakthroughs.
2. Governments can play an important part in stimulating development of the necessary hydrogen related technologies and providing encouraging incentives during the early stages. The sustained political will of the U.S. Government is particularly important in this regard. However, governments must allow the markets and consumers the freedom to make the fundamental commercial choices. Otherwise, money and time is wasted clinging to political choices that turn out not to be commercially the best options.
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Shell Scenarios
Shell's views about the future of energy are shaped by scenarios that look out to 2050 in terms of energy needs, possibilities, and choices. We've been using scenarios for 30 years to help us think about the future. Scenarios are not predictions. Rather, they are ways of challenging assumptions, encouraging debate, and exploring possibilities. They are tools for focusing on critical uncertainties—the unexpected discontinuities or unknown possibilities that could transform our business environment. Our scenarios don't pinpoint future events; rather, they consider the forces that might push the future along a different path.
Scenarios are credible, relevant and challenging alternative stories about how things might develop. Credibility is essential. We harness our experience in energy businesses and technology development—as well as a wide range of outsider expertise—to develop them. What I will tell you today comes from our most recent work in this area: ''Energy Needs, Choices and Possibilities—Scenarios to 2050.''
Let me say before I begin that I fully understand that this House Science Committee is particularly interested in hydrogen fuels for transportation. Our scenario work includes transport, of course, but it is not confined to this sector, as important as it is. Because of the interrelationships and uncertainties associated with all energy sectors, Shell has taken a ''holistic'' approach to looking at the future.
What questions do our long-term energy scenarios attempt to answer?
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First, there is an overarching question about the ability of a dynamic energy system to respond to the threat of climate change in this half-century.
Other key questions explored in the scenarios include:
When will oil and gas resources fail to meet rising demand? What will replace oil, particularly in transport?
Who will drive the expansion of renewables? How will energy storage for renewables like solar and wind be solved?
How might a hydrogen infrastructure develop?
How will the choices of consumers and citizens affect energy paths?
We looked at important influences that are likely to shape the future of energy, including demography, urbanization, income and market liberalization. And, we looked at three critical drivers that have the potential to bring about fundamental changes in the energy system—resource constraints, technology development and changing social and personal priorities.
A word or two about global resource constraints: Some people see impending limitations on the ability of fossil fuel resources to continue meeting growth in energy demand. We think scarcity of oil supplies is unlikely before 2025, and could be delayed even longer. Natural gas resources are much more uncertain. Scarcity could occur as early as 2025, or well after 2050. The more immediate issue is whether we can develop the infrastructure to deliver remote gas economically.
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There is no shortage of coal, but resources are concentrated in a few countries and are becoming increasingly costly to exploit, among other reasons, due to tightening emission standards. Renewable resources, like solar and wind, will compete with food and leisure for land use and require new forms of energy storage. Technological advances are at the core of the transition to new forms of energy. These advances offer superior or new qualities—often transforming lifestyles as well as energy supplies.
In the long-term, two potentially transforming energy technologies are:
Solar photovoltaics, which offer the possibility of abundant direct and widely distributed energy, and
Hydrogen fuel cells, which offer the possibility of high performance and clean energy from a variety of fuels.
Both are in the early stages of development and face large challenges. Energy storage is the fundamental problem. Both still have a long way to go on affordability, although they will benefit from manufacturing economies.
People's choices also affect energy development in two ways—by their personal preferences as consumers and their priorities as citizens. Personal lifestyle choices and consumption patterns drive the energy system. These forces operate within frameworks shaped by social attitudes and concerns, such as energy security, air quality and the climate change.
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Now about the scenarios we've developed to the year 2050. There is no limit, of course, as to how many we could generate about the future. But our experience is that we can better engage people by limiting our thinking to two focused and thought-provoking scenarios. They are called Dynamics as Usual and the Spirit of the Coming Age. I'll talk briefly about both of them.
Dynamics as Usual focuses on the choices that people make about clean, secure and increasingly sustainable energy that—with growing resource scarcities—drive the evolution toward renewable sources. However, this transition is anything but smooth and reflects intense competition among priorities and technologies. Dynamics as Usual explores the continuation of the dynamic which has shaped the evolution of energy toward lower-carbon fuels—with electricity as the carrier—in response to demands for cleaner, more convenient energy.
Spirit of the Coming Age focuses on the energy choices made by consumers in response to revolutionary new technologies—which arise from unexpected sources—and transform the system.
The two scenarios reflect differences in energy resources, timing and nature of technology development and social and personal priorities. However, the scenarios also have important common features, including:
the vital role of natural gas as a bridging fuel during at least the next two decades;
pressure on the oil market as new vehicle technologies diffuse;
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the shift towards distributed heat and power supply for economic and social reasons, and
in the long-term, the potential for renewables to be the eventual primary source of energy if robust energy storage solutions are found.
Dynamics as Usual
Let me focus on the four main elements of Dynamics as Usual:
1. existing technologies respond,
2. the 'dash for gas,'
3. renewables boom and bust, and
4. the oil transition and renewables renaissance.
Let's consider each of these points in turn.
First, existing technologies respond. The demand for clean, secure and sustainable energy stimulates a drive for energy efficiency within existing technologies, particularly the internal combustion engine. Advanced internal combustion and hybrid engines deliver the same performance as standard vehicles—but use as little as half of the fuel. Fueling inconvenience limits the appeal of fuel cell vehicles.
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The spread of high-efficiency vehicles disrupts oil markets. Prices are depressed until firmed by growing developing country demand for transport and heating fuels after 2015. Oil consumption grows steadily—but weakly—for 25 more years.
Second, the dash for gas. Natural gas use expands rapidly early in the century—reflecting its economic and environmental advantages in liberalized markets. Where gas is available it fuels most new power generation and accounts for three-quarters of incremental OECD capacity up to 2015. Older coal plants cannot meet tightening emissions standards and are increasingly replaced by gas.
The rising costs and logistical complexity of expanding coal deliveries from northern mines prompts China to embark on major gas import projects. Pan-Asian and Latin American gas grids emerge. Large-scale LNG trade is increasingly competitive. By 2020 gas is challenging oil as the dominant source of primary energy. However, expansion thereafter is constrained by concerns for security of supply.
New nuclear plants have trouble competing in deregulated markets. Most existing nuclear capacity is maintained, but nuclear steadily loses market share in OECD countries.
Third, the renewables boom and bust. Strong government support in OECD countries enables renewable energy to grow rapidly for two decades through established electricity grids. The cost of wind energy continues to fall as turbines exceed 3 MW.
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By 2020 a wide variety of renewable sources is supplying a fifth of electricity in many OECD markets. Then growth stalls.
Limited electricity growth constrains expansion in OECD countries and with little progress on energy storage, concerns about power grid reliability block further growth of wind and solar. In developing countries, renewables do not fully compete with low-cost conventional resources.
As renewables stagnate and gas security concerns grow, it is not clear what will fuel future energy supplies.
It is a decade of great energy policy dilemmas.
Fourth and lastly, the oil transition and renewables renaissance. Around 2040, as oil becomes scarce, advances in biotechnology together with vastly improved vehicle efficiency allow a relatively smooth transition to liquid biofuels or Fischer-Tropsch fuels. The existing transportation system can be modified at low cost.
A new generation of renewable technologies emerge. The most important is organic and thin film embedded solar materials. New ways of storing and utilizing distributed solar energy are developed.
By 2050 renewables reach a third of world primary energy and are supplying most incremental energy.
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Spirit of the Coming Age
Now let me turn to three key elements of the second scenario, Spirit of the Coming Age:
1. breaking paradigms,
2. the ubiquitous fuel cell,
3. the hydrogen economy.
Let's talk about breaking paradigms.
The Sony Walkman was repeatedly dismissed by focus groups. Portable computers and mobile phones are examples of innovations that broke existing paradigms. Such developments often come from niche market fringes—ignored by incumbent suppliers—where physical constraints force innovation and consumers are willing to pay a premium.
In this scenario technological development is rapid and—critically—societies adopt new technologies more or less immediately. With abundant gas supplies, innovations push fuel cells into a variety of new applications. The outlook is bright.
By 2015, installations of both stationary and mobile fuel cells have won broad public acceptance. After all there are already hundreds of installations in place in the U.S. and in highly environmentally conscious Germany. This scenario says that by the end of the decade there is growing enthusiasm for the technology.
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Automobiles manufacturers know that hydrogen fuel cell vehicles match the public mood because they are cleaner, quieter and offer high performance. They can also support more electrical services—digital communications, pre-entry heating and cooling, and in-car entertainment—which consumers want but which require too much power for many traditional engines. The constraint is the fuel infrastructure and the potential health hazards of alternative fuels.
Demand for stationary fuel cells—for businesses willing to pay a premium to ensure highly reliable power—helps drive fuel cell system costs down. This provides a platform for transport uses, stimulating further cost reductions—well below conventional power and heat technologies.
In this scenario, by 2025 a quarter of the OECD vehicle fleet uses fuel cells. The global automobile industry rapidly consolidates around the new platform. Technical advances in transport and power services feed off each other, solving mutual problems. Fuel cells also benefit from broader developments in material technology.
Cars no longer need to be idle for 95 percent of the time. Through docking stations, they can provide energy to homes and buildings.
Now, let's talk about the emergence of a hydrogen economy. The advantages of the new technology push the transition to hydrogen well before oil becomes scarce. The higher the demand for fuel cells, the less oil fetches. Renewable energy makes steady but unspectacular progress until 2025. ''Green energy'' niches remain small in most regions.
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After 2025 the growing use of fuel cells for heat and power creates a rapidly expanding demand for hydrogen. It is widely produced from coal, oil and gas fields, with carbon dioxide extracted and sequestered at source. By 2050 a fifth of carbon dioxide emissions from the production and use of energy are being sequestered.
Large-scale renewable and nuclear energy schemes to produce hydrogen by electrolysis start to become attractive after 2030. Renewable energy becomes a bulk supply business and starts to expand rapidly. Hydrogen is transported in gas grids until demand justifies dedicated hydrogen pipelines.
A century-long process of hydrogen infrastructure development begins. The need for sequestration peaks after 2050 although only a small part of the total sequestration capacity has been used. It all sounds very positive. Still, it is worth noting that even in this most optimistic scenario for hydrogen it takes another 40 years before hydrocarbons fully lose their dominance of the energy industry.
What I've just given you is an overview of our two long-term energy scenarios. They both underscore the complex interplay between scientific and technical advances and social, political and market developments. They also underscore the inherent uncertainty on the timing and nature of the hydrogen economy.
Role of Government
Shell has extensive experience with government influence around the world, as no other industry is subject to so many policies and such political control. We know that policies can make or break projects, technologies and even whole industries. We have also learned that subsidies meant to encourage an industry can sometimes wreck it. We've learned that policies have to be intelligent and properly structured, not just well meant.
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Policies related to the hydrogen and fuel cell industries are only now beginning to be formed. It is very important that the right principles are ingrained in these policies and that they are carefully framed.
This must be based on an appreciation for the challenges in producing hydrogen. Hydrogen is made either from electricity by splitting water, or extracted from natural gas or other fossil sources. Therefore, the energy in the hydrogen will always be more expensive than that of the sources used to make it. Hence, competitiveness must come from the additional benefits produced in cleaner air, lower CO emissions through greater efficiency or sequestration, and improved energy supply security. These externalities need to be reflected in price signals received by the market, otherwise technology alone cannot bridge the gap in cost. The incumbent petroleum based technology already has an infrastructure in place and is made from a relatively low cost feedstock. Hydrogen can only compete in the early years with the involvement and consistent support of government.
Our participation in the California Fuel Cell Partnership has provided valuable insight into the potential social benefits resulting from the use of fuel cells, and the hurdles for implementation of a hydrogen infrastructure. Through working in partnership with car manufacturers, Federal and State government agencies, and other energy companies, we have researched pathways for a transition to a hydrogen economy in California. Such cooperation is unique and essential to ensure a hydrogen transition becomes feasible.
The Federal Government has a key role to play in setting up the playing field for private enterprise to compete. Previous experiences with alternative fuels such as compressed natural gas (CNG) show that without prolonged government engagement and strong, visible and vocal commitment to deliver a shift in the fuel used in society, these initiatives are destined to fail and remain niche products. In addition to the sort of fiscal support and R&D funding proposed in the President's recent Hydrogen Fuel and FreedomCAR initiatives, the government should also work towards harmonized international codes and standards, increasing levels of public education, and mitigating the risk of in developing a new fuel infrastructure. Finally, as I pointed out earlier, it should ensure that the integral social, environmental, and economic costs and benefits to society of any fuel are properly considered by the market.
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The transition to hydrogen will be a long and capital intensive process, and will need a sustained political will to realize the significant benefits of cleaner air, lower greenhouse gas emissions, and a decreased reliance on foreign energy sources. Many of the existing technical and cost hurdles can be overcome with sustained and consistent government support, but even so the huge investment for the infrastructure changeover can only be supported by industry if it can be done on a commercial basis. The initial investment has been estimated by Shell at around USD 20bn for the U.S. alone, to supply two percent of the cars with hydrogen by 2020 and to make hydrogen available at 25 percent of the existing gasoline retail stations. In the subsequent decades, further build-up of the hydrogen infrastructure will require hundreds of billions of U.S. dollars. Support from the government in mitigating some of the risks around such large investments will clearly be indispensable. However, if the hydrogen sector is to truly take off, most of the capital will come from the private sector. Therefore, it will be consumers, and by extension, the capital markets that will ultimately determine how much money flows into this new industry.
I hope that I have convinced you that Shell believes in hydrogen and is putting its money on the table. Through the companies of Shell Hydrogen, we are already a significant investor and we are willing to invest further as opportunities arise. Shell believes that governments should promote research and development—and provide significant funding—but, that they should do so in a way that allows for innovation and competition in the marketplace, and provides customer with a choice.
I would be happy to answer any questions.
BIOGRAPHY FOR DONALD P.H. HUBERTS
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Chief Executive Officer
Don Huberts has a Master's Degree in Chemical Engineering from Delft University of Technology, and a Master's of Science of Management (MBA) from the Sloan School of Management at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology in Boston, MA, USA. He joined Shell in 1980 as an assistant development engineer in Catalytic Cracking. Subsequently Don worked in Process Control in Houston, TX, USA and in Refinery Operations in The Netherlands. After obtaining his MBA at MIT in 1992, he worked as country focal point for Japan and the Philippines in the regional organization based in London, which was followed by an assignment as personnel resourcing adviser in The Hague. Thereafter, he was General Manager of a crude oil refining and product importation joint venture company in the Dominican Republic.
In Hydrogen Don is responsible for developing Shell's global business in the emerging hydrogen and fuel cell industry. He was the 2002 Chairman of the California Fuel Cell Partnership. Don is Chairman of the Board of HydrogenSource, a joint venture between UTC Fuel Cells and Shell Hydrogen. He is also member of the International Advisory Board of Conduit, a European based venture capital company which focuses purely upon fuel cells and related hydrogen technologies.
Don is married and has three young daughters. He enjoys spending time with his family, soccer, movies, theater and visiting interesting places.
Discussion
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Industry's Opinion on Government Policy Options
Chairman BOEHLERT. Thank you very much. Let me start with our two witnesses from industry, Dr. Burns and Mr. Huberts. To what extent do industry's plans and assumptions about making money from your hydrogen investments depend on specific government policy options, whether they are incentives or regulations? And can we get to a hydrogen economy just relying on narrowly defined market forces? Dr. Burns.
Dr. BURNS. I believe there is tremendous business growth opportunities for companies like General Motors and Shell associated with hydrogen. The reason we are so excited about this technology is we truly believe we can make better cars and trucks around the technologies that are emerging at this point in time. But if we have those cars and trucks available, and the hydrogen is not available, we are not going to be able to accomplish our own goals because the customers wouldn't have the hydrogen conveniently there. So we believe the governments can play a very important role in a couple of ways.
First of all, to help keep hydrogen on an equal playing field with the cost of gasoline, recognizing that infrastructure for gasoline has been evolving over 100 years, where hydrogen will not just be starting out. So we need some mechanism to make sure that hydrogen has an opportunity to compete on a level playing field for a period of time to kick this off.
Codes and standards also will be real important. And we need the R&D funds, we believe, to lead to some more important breakthroughs on materials to make these technologies more affordable in the near-term.
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Chairman BOEHLERT. Mr. Huberts?
Mr. HUBERTS. Mr. Chairman, as I said, the externalities, as also Dr. Ogden pointed to, are key to realizing the benefits of hydrogen, and therefore, government policy will be required to assure that hydrogen receives the benefits of those externalities.
Chairman BOEHLERT. Mr. Lloyd, would you have a comment on this question?
Dr. LLOYD. With respect to—I think, again, speaking on behalf of the Partnership here, clearly we are hoping that working as partners here; we can develop a mechanism whereby we can get these vehicles on the road. I would say very carefully in my other hat, I will say that what we have found over the years that it is good to have basically a carrot on a stick. One of the things that we found just reading in the Financial Times yesterday, that the market share for the Japanese companies is increasing in the U.S. That is a time when, in fact, they are also developing. They have hybrids on the road. They are selling hybrids. They have fuel cells in limited numbers on the road in California. What that indicates to me is that they have got the right mix of being able to push the technology, respond to some of the stimuli, and yet they are gaining market share. I can't—I will completely agree with Dr. Burns. We—and we have learned this that, in fact, you have to build something the public will buy. I think maybe the Japanese have got a model that seems that they are getting both, advancing technology and——
Chairman BOEHLERT. Would they mix with the hybrids and the fuel cell?
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Dr. LLOYD. Well, by the fuel cell, it is very early, but obviously they are getting those very small numbers on the road, the same as GM is doing there. But I think if you look at the hybrids, now in fact while it is difficult for the U.S. population to buy hybrids from the domestic manufactures, you have got Honda and Toyota who have already invested in hybrids. Obviously, there is significant cost in electric drive, and the public is obviously responding with sales. And if you look across the board, the fact that they are gaining market share tells you that, obviously, they are being able to push the technology, put vehicles out there which may be more costly, but the public does seem to be responding.
Chairman BOEHLERT. Dr. Ogden.
Dr. OGDEN. I think that recognition of externalities is going to be an important condition for bringing about a hydrogen economy. I see this happening both in terms of policies to recognize those, and also in terms of changing consumer preferences really, for vehicles that would offer diverse energy supply, and lower emissions of air pollutants and greenhouse gases. So I see this as really taking place as a paradigm shift, and I think the government has an important role to play there in encouraging the progress toward that kind of future. And having a societal debate really about whether that is the sort of thing we want to do, you know? Opening it up and bring——
DOE's Opinions on Government Policy Options
Chairman BOEHLERT. Mr. Garman, you heard him. Everyone seems to be saying we need policy tools; we need to take externalities into account. What is DOE doing about this?
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Mr. GARMAN. Actually, well, you have got to get the technology in the ballpark before you get close to being able to play in terms of addressing the externalities. In a case in point, for instance, it might be wind energy. I mean the Department, through its R&D program, has brought down the cost of wind energy from 10 to 20 cents a kilowatt hour where no conceivable tax incentive or other policy mechanism would make it competitive. But technology work brought the cost of wind technology down to four to six cents a kilowatt hour, in the most, you know; class six wind areas, productive areas, which means you suddenly can begin to play with a production tax credit or some other government mechanism to incentivize use of the technology. So I think it is important that before we get too hung up on what kind of market mechanisms or tax incentives, or other mechanisms we might want to use, that we get the technology in the ballpark, because the revenue impacts of fuel cell incentives or other mechanisms like that would just be budget breakers. We have got to get the technology close. And when we get into the ballpark, then I think we can have a good productive dialogue about the additional mechanisms that might be needed.
Sources of Funding for the Hydrogen Initiative
Chairman BOEHLERT. I can't escape noting that one of the ways you intend to pay for the fuel cell initiative—hydrogen initiative is cutting wind energy R&D?.
Mr. GARMAN. I hoped you would give me the opportunity to respond to that, Mr. Chairman.
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Chairman BOEHLERT. I will give you that opportunity right this moment.
Mr. GARMAN. Because in truth, our wind request for 2004, we were—of course had to make our request before we had the 2003 appropriates in hand. But the 2003 appropriations was 33 million for wind; our request for 2004 is 41.6. Reasonably flat, our hydro is actually up, the geo-thermal reasonably flat, solar is from 87 to 79, but notable tag subset of that is actually up a little bit. We did take a hit in biomass, but actually when you look at even our biomass number, our request when you take away the Congressional earmarks that may or may not contribute to the R&D goals, we are actually asking for more than we asked for biomass on our core R&D goals. So we have a very strong—and in fact, in the overall energy supply account for our renewable energy, we actually—our 2004 request is actually up over the 2003 appropriation, 444 million to 426 million. So we have a strong renewable energy R&D request. We—a lot of the plus up that you see in the overall account is due to the additional dollars that we are asking for in hydrogen that is funded also from this account, on some of the very R&D goals that Dr. Burns was saying we needed to pay attention to.
Chairman BOEHLERT. It proves the point that different people can look at the same figures and interpret them in a different manner. The new Chair of the Subcommittee on Energy, Ms. Biggert.
Role of Partnerships in the Hydrogen Initiative
Ms. BIGGERT. Thank you, Mr. Chairman. I have got a question for Mr. Garman. In your testimony you gave some details about the focus and structure of the President's Hydrogen Initiative, and thank you for that, but I think there is still some basic questions that haven't been answered. We don't know, for example, who will be the partners with this—for this—with the program, or even who will perform the research. In other words, what will be the role of the national labs? What about the oil—energy companies? Are there specific companies that you are looking in to partner with, and if so, which ones? And when are we going to see this plan?
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Mr. GARMAN. Excellent, thank you for that question. We have begun discussions with a variety of energy companies. We are looking particularly at those energy companies that have a sizeable investment in hydrogen work already. Fortunately, a lot of energy companies do that. They are the producers of a large amount of hydrogen, some nine million metric tons we produce each year, mainly for petroleum refining applications. We have been working with our FreedomCAR partners on a charter, and we have been discussing with a variety of energy companies possible participation. We hope that we can approach those companies in—just within a few short weeks and engage them very actively.
In terms of the research and who will do it, we try to ensure that the research is undertaken on a competitive and peer-reviewed basis. Our—if FreedomCAR and the PNGV prior to that is a model, most of the research is actually performed—the largest percentage is done in the national labs, and then following close behind that are tier one and tier two automobile suppliers. Ironically, the big three get very little, if any, of the dollars, and I think that if that model holds, you will see the R&D mainly being born by national labs and suppliers to the energy company, those who actually make hydrogen compressors, reformers, and other types of equipment.
Role of the Office of Science in the Hydrogen Initiative
Ms. BIGGERT. If you use the labs and the basic research, how about the Office of Science, are they involved? And right now we are seeing very flat funding of the Office of Science, will there be increased funding for this or will other—they will have to drop other basic research items?
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Mr. GARMAN. We—Science is already doing a superb job working with us. We have created an internal posture plan, which is under policy review now. We hope to share that with the Committee in the months ahead. Science is a strong partner with us in developing the plan on how DOE as an entity is going to pursue these things. They are already doing cutting edge research. Their Biological and Environment Research Division is working on microbial generation of hydrogen that looks quite promising. The Basic Energy Science Program has been helping us and working on materials for the storage of hydrogen, which you heard Dr. Burns say was a critical technology on board the vehicle. Science is very well integrated with our work. We think that they—we view them as a strong partner. I don't see—I think they will receive very lavish resources to do this work.
Ms. BIGGERT. So there will be other resources that will be available other than what they received for Fiscal Year 2003 and what is proposed for 2004?
Mr. GARMAN. Yes, sir. The—yes, ma'am. The President has provided us with a funding profile. The 1.2 billion that includes 720 million dollars of new funding, and this would be shared between—my office would get the bulk of the funding, but Science would get some as well, as would Fossil and Nuclear Energy inside the Department.
Ms. BIGGERT. Would that plan—is that part of the Initiative that you talked about—the plan for the Hydrogen Initiative? Is there another plan for what the government will be doing or is this all one plan that we will be receiving?
Mr. GARMAN. Our posture plan is really—the simplest way to think about it is the DOE response to the President's Initiative, and how my Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy—the work, the hydrogen work that is being undertaken, the Fossil Office, the Nuclear Office, the Office of Science, will be integrated to make sure that we are hitting the R&D objectives.
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Ms. BIGGERT. Thank you very much. Thank you, Mr. Chairman.
Chairman BOEHLERT. Thank you, Mr. Lampson.
Safety Concerns and Precautions for Hydrogen Usage
Mr. LAMPSON. Thank you, Mr. Chairman. We have been using hydrogen for a long time, as on the Space Shuttle and Space Station, and lots of other places, but generally today, it is handled by trained persons under controlled conditions, and it is clear that we have the knowledge and experience to handle these quantities safely under the conditions that were set out. But if hydrogen is to become widely available to people who don't understand how to handle it, it seems to me that a whole panoply of problems need to be solved. And let me ask some of those, and I am going to call Mr. Huberts and see if he will help me understand them. Hydrogen, I understand burns with an almost invisible flame. People could literally walk into it unknowingly. Hydrogen is highly ignitable. The ignition characteristics differ from natural gas, and how do they do so? What conditions, what precautions might we be able to take? How easily is it ignited by static electricity? What precautions might we be able to take? And also, unlike natural gas, hydrogen rises when it is released into the atmosphere. What special considerations need to be taken into consideration when handling in enclosed areas? Can you talk to me about those for a minute, please?
Mr. HUBERT. Sure, as we are going through the learning process right now, one of the examples is the station that will be opening here in the DC area. We will address those aspects under real-life conditions. So there will be changes, for example, in the way in which the station is designed in order to be safe, recognizing that hydrogen goes up instead of going down, contrary to different fuels, recognizing that it a gas, not a liquid. So those different properties of hydrogen need to be managed in a different way.
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We believe that can be done safely, and what is happening right now in demonstration projects that are taking place in these years is testing all those things out in practice, and getting the design rules established, getting the codes and standards established under which this new fuel can be handled safely by the general public.
So your point is very valid. There is also a role there for the Federal Government in helping to harmonize these codes and standards as they are developed to make sure that the Fire Marshals, who are the local authorities, giving permits for refill stations, they know how to handle this fuel. And this is a whole process that is going to take several years, and the demonstration projects are really a key part of that process.
Mr. LAMPSON. Do you envision ultimately that the general public would be able to pull up to a gas pump similar to what we do today and pump up with hydrogen?
Mr. HUBERTS. Yes, definitely.
Mr. LAMPSON. Assuming that hydrogen has to be transported, do we have the experience with hydrogen pipelines? Will the gas have to be compressed to be shipped? Will the stresses and metal fatigue be similar to natural gas or oil pipelines, and how will the dangers of hydrogen pipelines compare to natural pipelines? Are they more likely to be terrorist targets?
Mr. HUBERTS. Hydrogen pipelines are available today, and there are hundreds of miles of hydrogen pipelines across the country. For instance, in the Texas area there is a little experience with those kind of pipelines. They are not exactly the same as natural gas pipelines. One has to take into account the different properties of hydrogen in designing these pipelines, but the experience to do that is available, and these pipelines have been operated safely for many, many years.
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As far as transporting hydrogen on the road, it is transported routinely, has been transported routinely for many years in tanker trucks in liquid form, in gaseous form. So, we will—hydrogen is different than natural gas in some aspects, the experience in transporting it is available, and we will make use to that experience and build on that
Cost of Hydrogen vs. Natural Gas Pipelines
Mr. LAMPSON. How about the cost?
Mr. HUBERTS. Hydrogen pipelines are more expensive than natural gas pipelines, and that is one of the factors. As I explained, hydrogen is more expensive than other forms of energy because it has to be made, and it has different properties. So the benefits of hydrogen have to come from its greater efficiency, from social benefits, but at the end of the day it is going to be more expensive a hydrogen pipeline than it is to build a natural gas pipeline. It is—that is simply a fact.
Mr. LAMPSON. Thank you very much. Mr. Chairman, I have got more questions, but I see that little yellow light out there, and if I start the next one you are going to jump on me. So I will give you back my time and ask for a second round.
Chairman BOEHLERT. We will have a second round, Mr. Smith.
Direction of Hydrogen Research Efforts
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Mr. SMITH. Thank you, Mr. Chairman. Certainly hydrogen is abundant. I just am a little concerned that we might start running top speed that might be the wrong direction. Is it your impression that we are going to do the additional research effort in the hydrogen fuel cells that might mean a sacrifice of some of our other efforts, whether it is the traditional—whether it is some of the hybrid cars, whether it is additional research efforts in developing different, more efficient batteries, or better, more-efficient conventional engines? Or Toyota I understand is coming out with a vehicle that can get 100 miles per gallon? Maybe Dr. Burns, a question to you as I add to the questions, my interest probably would be two-fold—or our interest in general should be two-fold, and one is to reduce our dependency on imported petroleum energy, and the second is to have the kind of production of vehicles in the United States that is going to allow us to have the jobs in the economy, if you will. And Japan seems to have taken a lead. General Motors was going very strongly in the electric car, and I guess you still have an electric car research effort that has sort of faded out, whether it was the battery, the inability to develop batteries or etcetera. So the bottom line question, will the big three in the United States be at the forefront in the development of new and better, more-efficient vehicles, regardless of whether it is hydrogen cells or something else?
Dr. BURNS. That is a very important question, Congressman. General Motors has a near-term, midterm, and long-term view on propulsion technologies. In the near-term, improving the internal combustion engine, both gas and diesel, improving our transmissions are critically important. My role as head of R&D and Planning is—requires me to have the right balance portfolio of research projects within our company that allows us to improve the existing cars as we know them, as well as prepare ourselves for the longer term future. One technology we are especially excited about that will be utilized with our eight cylinder engines on our large sport utility engines and pick-up trucks is called displacement on demand. This is a technology that allows you to literally shut down four of the eight cylinders once the vehicle has been accelerated, to realize efficiency gains and emission advantages. And that can result in anywhere from a five to eight percent economy improvement. We coupling that technology with hybrid technologies for those same trucks. The hybrid system combined with displaced on demand is an opportunity to improve fuel economy on the order of 20 percent for these vehicles.
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Importance of Hybrids as an Intermediate Step to Fuel Cell Vehicles
We see hybrids as an important intermediate type of a technology. Fuel cell vehicles likely will be hybrid vehicles as well. By that I mean they will have some type of a battery system on them, or capacitor system to store the energy associated with slowing the vehicle down and breaking the vehicle.
Mr. SMITH. The New York Times suggests that GM is coming—and I guess your plan is to come by May or the summer with five minivans or a certain number, why are you doing that?
Dr. BURNS. Yeah, that is correct. The six vehicles that we are going to have available as part of the demonstration with Shell in Washington DC; they are pure full cell vehicles. We will have a modest amount of battery assist on them in order to give them better acceleration characteristics, but essentially they are pure fuel cell vehicles. But for larger vehicles, having the hybrid technology with fuel cells is critical.
The key here is to get to electric drive. Electric drive has a lot of important advantages in terms of the driving characteristics of the vehicles. Fuel cells and hybrids have both of those.
Mr. SMITH. A quick question to you Mr. Garman, on the—John Graham and there seems to be inconsistency within the Administration for what the—how to progress on fuel cells.
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Mr. GARMAN. Actually, I am not familiar with that specific——
Mr. SMITH. The EIA was complaining that their projection of hybrid vehicle market growth directly contradicts reports by auto makers in the United States. It seemed to be an in-house criticism and I was just wondering about the coordination.
Mr. GARMAN. The EIA is an independent statistical entity within the Department of Energy, and I can assure you there is no coordination between what they say and what we think. And we often have some—we often disagree with the EIA about the introduction of technologies, and it is a healthy disagreement.
I did want to add the point, however that we view the introduction of the interim technologies very importantly as well. We have sought—we are seeking this year more funding for hybrid vehicle technology work, as well as materials work—lightweight materials that we think will be importantly integrated in vehicles both in the midterm and the long-term as Dr. Burns indicated. And General Motors' vision of how the market is going to unfold and how consumers are going to become exposed to this new both hybrid and fuel cell technology and adapt to it is quite consistent with ours.
Mr. SMITH. Thank you, Mr. Chairman.
Chairman BOEHLERT. Thank you, Mr. Smith.
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Mr. EHLERS [presiding]. Thank you, Mr. Smith. Next we will call on Mr. Miller.
Mr. MILLER. Thank you. I regret that I have been kind of in and out of this hearing and not been able to give it my full attention, so if I have—if I ask questions that you have already addressed, I apologize.
Potential Benchmarks for Hydrogen Vehicles and Fossil Fuel Engines
I think I have questions that probably would be best directed to Dr. Burns, I think, but if anyone else has an answer, please speak up. You spoke of the need—well, the intermediate technologies before we have a full-blown hydrogen economy. Is there a magic number of miles per gallon that we would need to achieve for American vehicles that would allow us energy self-sufficiency? I have heard 37.
Dr. BURNS. I am not aware of such a magic number that we should be targeting. The fuel cell is twice as efficient as the internal combustion engine, and that is very encouraging. But you also have to recognize that as Mr. Huberts mentioned, you need energy to create the hydrogen, the form that it is stored—that exists in the nature with water with hydrocarbons. And so when you balance that all out, we think we could see about a 50 percent fuel economy or energy efficiency advantage with the fuel cells going forward. But we really don't have a magic number of that type that we would target.
Mr. MILLER. With—you are talking about with hydrogen. I am talking if you stick, for at least the time being, with the fossil fuel—with fossil fuel engines as the energy source for vehicles, what kind of fuel efficiency would you need to achieve to—for the United States to have energy self sufficiency?
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Dr. BURNS. Again, I don't—sir, I don't see a magic number on that. The key is, though, the growth of the economy, and the growth of the economy is going to determine the energy consumption going forward. And if you look at vehicle miles traveled in this country, it has nearly doubled since 1980, so again, I don't see that kind of number existing.
Mr. MILLER. Dr. Ogden, do you have any better idea or——
Dr. OGDEN. I would second that. It really depends on the vehicle miles traveled. You could decrease, perhaps, oil use in the near-term by implementing more efficient internal combustion engine technologies, and as demand grows, you will probably reach a point where you need to increase the efficiency more. And looking at other sorts of externalities, people have estimated 100 years from now, even if you completely decarbonize the electric sector, if you want to get on a path we you are going to stabilize the atmosphere say at an acceptable CO level, you are going to have to decarbonize the fuel sector very substantially, which will mean moving from hydrocarbon to something like hydrogen.
Mr. MILLER. Okay. I was thinking more immediate than over the course of the next 100 years.
Mr. GARMAN. Mr. Congressman, I will take a crack at that, because we did some very rough scenario analysis on that very question and found that even if we were to impose an immediate and, let us say, unreachable, but an immediate 60 percent increase in the CAFÉ standard to 38.4 miles per gallon and discovered a 10 billion barrel oil field on the north slope of Alaska and began pumping that at a rate of up to two million barrels a day, we would still not be energy independent. We would for a short time. And we did this based on extrapolating EIA data. We would, for a short time, begin to bend that jaw between domestic production and demand but only for a short time. After a while, that demand would once again expand. So I think that is a powerful argument that eventually we must turn to a hydrogen approach for transportation.
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Possibility of the Failure of a Hydrogen Economy and Potential Alternate Plans
Mr. MILLER. A question then for you, Mr. Garman. We have continued to make remarkable technological advances, but they are not always the ones that we expected to make. And most of the folks who have called for a really serious effort in developing alternative fuels, a Manhattan Project for alternative fuels, has suggested we go off on several fronts at one time and see which one works. It does seem that this plan does put all the eggs in one basket, although the amount being put in this basket is not really that many eggs in view of how important alternative energy is to us. Is there a plan B? If this doesn't work out, what do we do? And when do we identify—are we setting out points along the way that we identify that this is just not working, we better turn our attention somewhere else?
Mr. GARMAN. Absolutely. As part of our FreedomCAR partnership, we have not only technology goals for 2010, but interim technology goals too, as well as off ramps on technologies once we determine that we are not succeeding in a particular technology, say onboard reformation of gasoline fuel aboard the vehicle. We have been putting money into this for some years, and if we are not achieving technological goals, we quit spending money on it. And we have off ramps. We subject our program to peer review by the National Academy of Sciences so that if we are on the wrong course, we know so that we can make adjustments in either the technology requirements or make the appropriate shifts.
Mr. EHLERS. The gentleman's time has expired. We recognize Congressman Rohrabacher.
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Mr. ROHRABACHER. Thank you very much. And I apologize as well for being in and out today. I have other Committee assignments, as we all do, and this is just unfortunate, but I do consider this hearing to be of importance, and that is why I came back.
Sources of Funding and Cost Estimates
When I used to be a journalist, I used to ask one question. Everybody thought it was a great question and gave me a lot more credit than I deserved. And it was just one question I asked in so many different ways, and which is how much is it going to cost, and who is going to pay for it. And I think it comes down to a lot of what we are doing here. And I was wondering, first of all, is there or is there not an extra step that is required that requires energy which then costs money before hydrogen can be produced as a fuel? And am I incorrect in that? I mean my assumption is, okay, how much does that extra step cost? What is the percentage of that extra step to the end cost?
Mr. GARMAN. We have done well-to-wheels efficiency analysis, which we think is very important. You raise the critical point that if you are considering a new system, you have to take into account if you are using, for instance, a hydrogen fuel cell vehicle with compressed natural gas reformed into hydrogen. You have to count what is the energy penalty you pay of converting the natural gas to hydrogen? What is the energy penalty you pay taking the hydrogen and compressing it to put it aboard the vehicle? And we have done those analyses. The inherent greater efficiency of fuel cell vehicles more than makes up for the penalty in the conversion in these well-to-wheel analyses. I will provide for the Committee a complete well-to-wheel analysis. (See Appendix 1: Additional Material for the Record.)
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Mr. ROHRABACHER. So in other words, a hydrogen fuel for a car, while it costs you to—it costs you more per gallon—I mean for a gallon, but you are getting many more miles per gallon?
Mr. GARMAN. Right. And let me also—so that I don't mislead you, our 2010 technology goal for hydrogen produced from natural gas is $1.50 per gallon of gas equivalent, untaxed. So it is more than that today. We think that advances in R&D will bring that down to the $1.50 per gallon of gas equivalent untaxed.
Mr. ROHRABACHER. All right. Let me make sure I am getting you straight. So that includes the cost of the natural gas and everything?
Mr. GARMAN. Yes. Yes, it does.
Mr. ROHRABACHER. Okay.
Mr. GARMAN. And that is based on $4 per MCF natural gas in that particular figure.
Abundance and Cost of Natural Gas
Mr. ROHRABACHER. Okay. Now you are going to have to—other people may want to correct me if I am wrong, but I seem to remember that natural gas is not really as abundant as we thought it would be in the United States.
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Mr. GARMAN. Prices are up, and but EIA estimates—the same EIA that we sometimes agree with and sometimes don't, so estimates that natural gas is going to continue in the roughly $4 per MCF range.
Mr. ROHRABACHER. And that is—unless we all convert over to automobiles, which then of course means natural gas will go way up in price.
Mr. GARMAN. And we have asked EIA to do that analysis for us, and they find that natural gas demand is not as much as you would expect in the early days.
Mr. ROHRABACHER. Well, of course not now, but if you have your way, the natural gas demand is going to be right through the roof.
Mr. GARMAN. Right.
Mr. ROHRABACHER. That means natural gas will go up to about, maybe, $10 a gallon, I would imagine.
Mr. GARMAN. Assuming we are successful, EIA has estimated, I think, between a three and five percent increase——
Mr. ROHRABACHER. Oh, come on now.
Mr. GARMAN [continuing]. In—that is EIA.
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Mr. ROHRABACHER. Let me tell you, I mean, looking at the way gas prices fluctuate right now with minor disruptions or minor increases in demand, I—frankly, I—what you are saying doesn't make any sense to me at all. I mean, yeah, it does if you say that natural gas prices are going to stay the same and we are going to get it for $1.50, that makes all of the sense. But once you convert it to cars, that is bound to go up. My guess, it would quadruple——
Mr. GARMAN. Well, that is——
Mr. ROHRABACHER [continuing]. Because that is—because you are not talking about having to quadruple the use of natural gas, the margin is what counts in terms of price. What about——
Mr. GARMAN. If I could, though——
Mr. ROHRABACHER. Sure.
Mr. GARMAN [continuing]. That is—you are absolutely right, and that is why we do not want to depend on natural gas as our sole hydrogen source. The attraction of hydrogen is that——
Mr. ROHRABACHER. Right.
Mr. GARMAN [continuing]. You can produce it from multiple sources.
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Mr. ROHRABACHER. Right. And——
Dr. OGDEN. Could I just chime in with one——
Mr. ROHRABACHER. Sure. Jump right in there.
Dr. OGDEN [continuing]. Quick thing on that, too?
Mr. ROHRABACHER. But I hope that the other sources we are talking about are acceptable to environmentalists. Like some environmentalists don't want us to have nuclear energy, for example. And yeah, that is a way to produce hydrogen, but you are not going to get any more nuclear power plants. Or maybe they don't like burning oil or coal in order to produce hydrogen because of the air pollution that that causes, so there seems to be some problems there. Yes, ma'am.
Dr. OGDEN. I have done some calculations looking at the question what if we converted all of our cars to hydrogen cars, we derive the hydrogen from natural gas, how much more natural gas will you need? And typically the numbers are like an increase of 25 to 30 percent in what we would be using anyway, which is not a negligible number, but it is not—you know, you won't increase the use of natural gas by ten times if you go to hydrogen——
Mr. ROHRABACHER. I mean, all of the cars that we are going around—if you convert all of them, it is only going to increase natural gas usage by 25 percent?
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Dr. OGDEN. That is correct. And the reason for that rather surprising result is that——
Mr. ROHRABACHER. All right.
Dr. OGDEN [continuing]. Hydrogen vehicles are much more efficient—the projected hydrogen than current gasoline fleets.
Mr. ROHRABACHER. Well, we are on the record now, and there is going to be somebody who is going to—my guess within a week who is going to come up and refute that.
Dr. OGDEN. Well, also to my——
Mr. ROHRABACHER. But that is my—but that is just common sense speaking to me, and I have no—I don't have a Ph.D., so I can't——
Chairman BOEHLERT. Mr. Huberts, do you want to respond to that? Your time is up, but let us get Mr. Huberts' response.
Mr. HUBERTS. Mr. Congressman, I think that the point here is that by using hydrogen, the choice for primary energy becomes flexible. And that choice will depend on many factors, including environmental concerns, etcetera. If people want to have cars, they are going to need energy in one form or the other. Hydrogen then liberates those cars from being bound to petroleum. And that is the whole point.
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Mr. ROHRABACHER. I have to tell you, that won't be the whole point for somebody if he ends up spending $3,000 a year more for fueling his car and he finds out that his kids now have a lower standard of living because we have freed him from petroleum. And I will have to see more before I will jump. I do know that we use hydrogen for our rockets. It is very effective. And it is a good fuel source, but you haven't convinced me——
Chairman BOEHLERT. The gentleman's time has expired.
Mr. ROHRABACHER. Thank you.
Chairman BOEHLERT. Mr. Bell.
Mr. BELL. Thank you, Mr. Chairman. Before leaving, Mr. Larson left a statement from one of his constituents, UTC Power, and it speaks to some of the issues being covered here today, and I would like to ask unanimous consent to have this entered into the record.
Chairman BOEHLERT. Without exception, and at the same time, I will enter into the record the statement by Mr. Akin and also a question.
Written Statement of UTC Power (Submitted by Mr. Larson)
PREPARED STATEMENT OF UTC POWER
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UTC Power, a unit of United Technologies Corporation (UTC), is pleased to submit the following comments regarding the House Science Committee's hearing entitled: ''The Path to a Hydrogen Economy.'' UTC, based in Hartford, Conn., provides a broad range of high technology products and support services to the building systems and aerospace industries. UTC Power is focused on the growing market for distributed energy generation to provide clean, efficient and reliable power. One of UTC Power's businesses is UTC Fuel Cells, a world leader in the production of fuel cells for applications ranging from space to commercial to transportation.
We have attempted to be as specific as possible regarding our views on ''The Path to a Hydrogen Economy'' and have therefore used the ''Energy Research, Development, Demonstration and Commercial Application Act of 2003'' (H.R. 238) as the basis for our comments. Our recommendations include the need for continued ''core'' fuel cell research and development efforts, including proton exchange membrane (PEM) technology that can be applied to power plants for both stationary and vehicle products. In addition, we believe that stationary and fleet vehicle demonstration programs, including transit buses, are strategically important as building blocks for the longer-term successful deployment of fuel cell automobiles.
UTC Power supports the overall thrust of H.R. 238 and its recognition of the need for a focused research, development demonstration and commercialization effort to bring advanced, clean, energy efficient and cost effective technologies to the market place that will result in energy security, fuel diversity, improved air quality and other environmental benefits as well as technology leadership. While H.R. 238's focus is on the research, development, demonstration and commercialization initiatives that fall within the scope of the Science Committee's jurisdiction, we also note the need to address financial incentives, direct government purchases, removal of regulatory barriers, education and training and development of harmonized codes and technical standards.
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The hydrogen provisions in Subtitle C of H.R. 238 are quite broad and call for a comprehensive program focused on production, storage, distribution and establishment of necessary technical standards. Success in all these areas is essential to ensure that the hydrogen economy becomes a reality. We are pleased with the growing awareness of the need to address hydrogen infrastructure requirements, but we should not lose sight of the continued need for basic fuel cell research and development efforts as well as strategic stationary and vehicle demonstration programs so that hydrogen can power the cars, trucks, buses, homes and buildings of tomorrow.
CORE FUEL CELL RESEARCH AND DEVELOPMENT PROGRAMS
Fuel cells face a number of technical challenges including reducing the system's cost, size and weight while improving durability and performance characteristics. The industry also needs to address the efficiency and cost effectiveness of manufacturing processes and materials issues. While substantial progress has been made on many of these fronts, more work needs to be done. Continued investment in ''core'' fuel cell power plant technology is needed to reach these goals. We believe the government has a pivotal role to play in supporting high-risk core fuel cell technology R&D efforts on a cost-share basis with industry so the public at large can enjoy the efficiency, reliability and environmental benefits of fuel cell technology.
Title II of the Hydrogen Future Act Amendment of H.R. 238 addresses fuel cell demonstration programs, but does not include provisions that target basic fuel cell technology research and development. The Department of Energy's Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy organization should manage these ongoing technology programs as public-private partnerships. Programs that address low cost, high-efficiency, fuel flexible, modular fuel cell power systems, improved manufacturing production and processes, high temperature membranes, cost effective fuel processing for natural gas, fuel cell stack and system reliability and durability and freeze/cold start capability all should be part of the ongoing core fuel cell component and systems research and development effort with a focus on PEM technology initiatives. These core PEM research and development efforts can be leveraged across stationary and transportation fuel cell applications for maximum return on investment to U.S. taxpayers.
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FUEL CELL BUS DEMONSTRATION PROGRAM
Fleet vehicles and transit buses in particular are ideal candidates for the initial deployment of fuel cell vehicles. Hydrogen storage is less of a problem because of space availability on the roof of buses and the bus installation is more forgiving compared to personal automobiles in terms of cost, size, weight and performance characteristics. And hydrogen fueling stations and technician training can more readily be made available given the relatively small number of inner city bus stations and service technicians.
Since the automotive application is the most demanding in terms of cost, weight, size, durability, ease of maintenance, start up time and other performance criteria, it is understandable that it will take longer for fuel cells to successfully compete in this market. But as the industry gains experience in deploying fuel cells for stationary, inner city buses and fleet applications, these successes can pave the way for zero emission fuel cell cars and serve as benchmarks to measure progress towards the 2010 goals of the FreedomCAR initiative.
H.R. 238's Sec. 402 of Subtitle H establishes a $200 million program for the acquisition of alternative fuel and fuel cell vehicles through DOE's Clean Cities program. We believe a zero emission fuel cell transit bus demonstration program is needed as a precursor to the fuel cell vehicle acquisition program. Specifically, we recommend that a new provision be added to H.R. 238 that establishes a national, zero emission, petroleum-free, hydrogen fuel cell bus demonstration program.
This public-private partnership would focus on the design and production of fuel cell power plants, bus chassis, electric drive and other components, hydrogen infrastructure requirements, data collection, testing, evaluation, information dissemination and training of operators and maintenance personnel related to the demonstration effort. The program should deploy a minimum of 10 buses in geographically dispersed cities located in air quality non-attainment zones as part of a five- to six-year program.
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UTC Power believes that demonstration efforts for heavy-duty vehicles should begin with transit buses rather than school buses. Sec. 302 of H.R. 238 calls for a $25 million fuel cell school bus program from FY 2004–2006. We believe this program should follow the zero emission fuel cell transit bus demonstration program. The fuel cell school bus program can therefore build on and take advantage of the lessons learned from the transit bus demonstration program.
FUEL CELL VEHICLE DEFINITION
Section 401 of H.R. 238 defines a fuel cell vehicle as a ''vehicle propelled by one or more cells that convert chemical energy directly into electricity by combining oxygen with hydrogen fuel which is stored on board the vehicle in any form and may or may not require reformation prior to use.'' This definition appears to exclude hybrid fuel cell configurations. Our proposed definition would be a: ''vehicle propelled by an electric motor powered by a fuel cell system that converts chemical energy into electricity by combining oxygen (from air) with hydrogen fuel that is stored on the vehicle or is produced on-board by reformation of a hydrocarbon fuel. Such fuel cell system may or may not include the use of auxiliary batteries to enhance vehicle performance.''
DISTRIBUTED ENERGY-COMBINED HEAT AND POWER (CHP)
UTC Power would also like to take this opportunity to comment on the need to expand Subtitle B to permit the demonstration of energy efficiency enhancing products and technologies that may be used in combined heat and power and waste heat recovery applications. These approaches use ''free energy,'' if not renewable energy, and draw upon core technology already in existence. This means these technologies can reach the market rather quickly and their benefits can be realized in the near-term. We recommend that Subtitle B, H.R. 238 be amended to broaden the scope of distributed generation demonstration initiatives beyond hybrid systems and specifically include distributed generation demonstration programs to validate products and technologies that may be used in combined heat and power, building heating and cooling power and waste heat recovery applications including waste-water treatment facilities, landfills, industrial process heat and central heating/boiler systems.
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In conclusion, UTC believes that a sustained, robust commitment to the hydrogen economy is necessary to make this vision a reality. Progress has been made, but continued commitment and support of core fuel cell research and technology is essential, with additional emphasis on strategically focused fleet vehicle, including transit bus, demonstration programs.
We appreciate the opportunity to comment on this important initiative. Should you have any questions regarding this matter, please contact Judith Bayer, UTC's Director, Environmental Government Affairs at 202–336–7436 or Judith.bayer@utc.com.
Best Use of Scarce Resources (Submitted by Mr. Akin)
REMARKS AND QUESTION FOR DAVID GARMAN—MR. AKIN
Mr. Chairman, as we have seen, the road to greater use of hydrogen in our economy faces many challenges which demand considerable time and effort. I would like to commend the witnesses today for their commitment to the President's Hydrogen Initiative and their work thus far. In the past, we have tried to address our energy dependency through the research and development of vehicle technology without the necessary infrastructure, with little regard to the importance of consumer demand and with a disturbing lack of concern for practical implementation of protracted research. I commend the witnesses in their efforts to provide us with a plan that addresses both long- and short-term concerns relating to a hydrogen economy.
My question is: I have noticed in the FY 2004 budget request that DOE is requesting $17.3 million in renewables for hydrogen production. However, in the Department of Energy's Hydrogen Energy Roadmap, you note that such methods as solar heat and photoeletrochemical electrolysis are still in early development stages. Do you feel that an investment of $17M is the best use of scarce resources or do you feel that part of this money could be more appropriately used in other areas of hydrogen production such as natural gas?
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Chairman BOEHLERT. And all of the witnesses should know that there will be some follow-up written questions for you. We would appreciate a timely response. Mr. Bell.
Mr. BELL. Thank you. With that, in the spirit of shameless Congressional district self promotion, I want to point out that the Houston Advanced Research Center, known as HARC, recently announced the successful connection of a five-kilowatt proton exchange membrane fuel cell system into the electric grid. The technology, which is patented as the Plug Power System, is the first in the HARC study to be located outdoors in real world conditions and the first residential unit to be connected to the electric power grid in Texas. And the purpose of this recent demonstration is to test the feasibility of putting energy into HARC's internal grid to learn whether homes in the future can safely generate their own power and receive emission reduction credits from on-site fuel cell installations. This is just one example of how HARC's partnership is taking the lead in shaping Houston as a promising site for fuel cell technologies.
HARC's work demonstrates how Houston, the Nation's energy capital, and I want to note that Mr. Lampson tried to expand the Nation's energy capital to all of southeast Texas, but it is really Houston. He is trying to get a little bit of it in his district as well. He will have a chance to refute it, I am sure. But we really are trying to take the lead in exploring alternate energy sources.
Timetable for Conversion to Alternate Energy Sources
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There has been a lot of talk and some here today about the timetable and how long this might take to make the conversation to alternate energy sources. Some have predicted that it could take decades. And I am curious, given the energy supply situation, the energy cost situation in the United States, can we afford for it take that long? And Mr. Garman, I will start with you on that.
Mr. GARMAN. Some individual consumers are determining that they want hydrogen fuel cells now. And they may be in a particular situation that—where they have a reliability requirement, such as an Internet data hotel, if you will, or something that absolutely needs reliable power, high-quality power, and they are willing to make that investment at current prices. I believe Verizon—the Verizon communications company is installing fuel cells in many locations in its critical infrastructure, and they are willing to pay the additional price. So I think you are going to see these technologies coming into the marketplace both as a consequence in the R&D work that is bringing the cost of the technology down, but also because of the individual needs of particular consumers that have a specific requirement for niche applications are willing to pay a little extra now for that. So you will see both of those things happening.
Mr. BELL. Mr. Huberts, do you care to——
Mr. HUBERTS. I guess, first of all, we are aware of HARC initiative and Shell has decided last month to join that initiative. I think that the stationary power certainly is an application that can take place in a nearer term than transportation. And I think the sort of initiatives that are going on will expand, and we will see in the next three to five years more and more of those stationary fuel cells coming on the market, and they are going to be real commercial applications.
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Necessity of Competition to Speed Development
Mr. BELL. Let me ask this, because my time is short, but Mr. Garman, you talked—spoke earlier about as more competition develops in this area that will speed development. And I want to commend Shell, because you all have also funded the Center for Research at Rice on sustainability and truly seem to be a company that gets it and knows that there needs to be this concentration on the future. But if there isn't greater participation or is there enough participation right now in this area to spur the kind of competition that you are talking about? Would either of you like to comment on that?
Mr. GARMAN. I think the President's expression of a national commitment in this area is something with his resolve saying we, as a nation, are going to do this. I think that, first of all, sends a signal to the market. 720 million new dollars, 1.2 billion sends a signal to the market. But more important than that, really, I think the partnership that you see really on this table in front of you, these are some of the same folks that have worked with us over the past year or more on developing the technology road maps that we need. And they are the ones that are putting their own money up and investing their own money in these technologies and betting that they are going to be successful. I think that is an illustration of resolve, not only at the national level, but also the private sector putting its money where its mouth is.
Mr. BELL. Would you like to comment on that?
Mr. HUBERTS. I would say that—you mentioned you received fuel cells. We have been partnering with them. We are developing the processes required to make the hydrogen for their fuel cells. It requires investment, but we see tremendous commercial opportunity there, and we see that in a time frame with the stationary fuel cells that is much closer than with transportation. So it is an area where it makes sense to invest. It makes sense for business to participate.
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Chairman BOEHLERT. The gentleman's time has expired. Dr. Ehlers.
Mr. EHLERS. Thank you, Mr. Chairman. Since I appear to be the last person to ask questions, at least in the first round, let me just summarize what I believe I have heard and learned and see if any of you disagree with that, and then I will have a few questions after that.
Number one, fuel cell technology is well underway. That is the least of our problems at this point. The main effort there is cost reduction and efficiency improvement. Secondly, hydrogen, if it is going to be a viable fuel, must be produced efficiently and used efficiently. Thirdly, the President made a point in his speech of mentioning carbon sequestration, so I assume the objective is to either produce the fuel from non-carbon sources or sequester the carbon that is used in producing the hydrogen.
Next, we must find the best way of producing hydrogen. And that—it seems to me, there is a considerable uncertainty about that. What is the best scientifically, economically, and environmentally? Next, we have to also find the best way of transporting hydrogen and distributing it. And that, I think, may be the biggest problem that we are going to face as a Nation with distributive responsibilities between the government and the industry. Next, because the timeline is longer than any of us would like, that we will have to, in terms of our goal of reducing dependence on foreign oil, we will have to have a transition technology of probably hybrids to bridge us to the hydrogen economy.
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Development of Codes and Standards
I am hoping that this is a reasonable summary of what you have said and what I understand. And I would appreciate any comments on that. Before I get to comments, let me just say Mr. Huberts mentioned codes and standards. I think Mr. Lampson also addressed that. A specific question for you, Mr. Garman, are you involved in developing those codes and standards and will you be working with NIST, the National Institute in Standards and Technology, on this since they have two centuries of experience in developing those?
Mr. GARMAN. Yes, Congressman. We envision an interagency group that is under the leadership of the Office of Science and Technology Policy and the Executive Office of the White House convening interagency activities, which frankly are already underway involving not only NIST but at the Department of Transportation and other federal agencies involved in the codes and standards issue. In fact, Secretary Abraham is leaving tomorrow for a trip to Europe to discuss harmonization of long-term codes and standards with his counterparts in EEU, stressing the importance of that particular activity. And we have, in our budget line, tripled our own work for safety code standards and utilization for hydrogen.
Additional Cost of Carbon Sequestration
Mr. EHLERS. Okay. The next specific question, if sequestration is going to be required, and I assume it is, that means any methods of producing hydrogen are going to have to assume the cost of sequestration. And it also means that we are not likely to use the technology that is being broached right now of using petroleum or natural gas fuels on cars and reforming it on board the car, because you can not sequester the carbon at that point, I believe. Is that correct?
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Mr. GARMAN. Over the long-term, you want a net zero carbon emissions profile. Now I would modify that by just pointing out that even if you are using natural gas in the near-term, because it—the carbon intensity, if you will, of natural gas is much lower than other hydrocarbons, you would get a 60 percent reduction in carbon emissions from vehicles using hydrogen reformed from natural gas without sequestration than you would from vehicles using gasoline just because of both the lower carbon density in the natural gas and the higher efficiency of the natural gas vehicle.
Mr. EHLERS. But my concern is that proposals within the automobile industry to use gasoline or perhaps natural gas, but initially gasoline in reforming it, will impede the development of the infrastructure you need for a full hydrogen economy. If you start producing cars that way, people will say, ''Oh, good, I can still use the gas station.'' And that removes the emphasis for developing the hydrogen transportation production and infrastructure. Is that——
Mr. GARMAN. That is fair. I have heard that criticism. Yes, sir.
Mr. EHLERS. Okay.
Chairman BOEHLERT. Dr. Ehlers, you will have a second round, but your time is up in this round.
Mr. EHLERS. Yeah. I just wonder if there are any quick reactions to my summary, since I have to leave, I have a vote going on.
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Dr. OGDEN. Could I give one real quick reaction?
Chairman BOEHLERT. Sure, Dr. Ogden.
Dr. OGDEN. One is the—I think it was really a good summary, but one thing I would sort of add is that there may be no one best way to produce hydrogen. It is sort of like producing electricity. There are lots of different ways you can produce it, and lots of carbon—net carbon neutral ways of producing it as well, not only fossil fuels or sequestration but renewable energy as well. And so there really is a large diverse portfolio of long-term options that could get you there.
Mr. EHLERS. That is certainly true. But I think you do have to zero in on a method of distribution and using it and putting it into the vehicles.
Dr. OGDEN. Yeah, I certainly agree on that.
Mr. EHLERS. Because if you have competing options there, it adds to the expense.
Dr. OGDEN. Agreed. Yes.
Mr. EHLERS. But I agree that production can be any method whatsoever. Thank you.
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Chairman BOEHLERT. Thank you very much. Mr. Lampson.
Ability to be Hydrogen Reliant by 2040
Mr. LAMPSON. Mr. Garman, in your testimony, you describe a four-part approach to moving toward a hydrogen economy with a full shift some time around 2040 or so. That is a wonderful goal. Is it pretty much correct, do you believe, that you can be—have us pretty much reliant on hydrogen, completely reliable on hydrogen by 2040?
Mr. GARMAN. If we are successful in meeting our R&D goals in the short-term and industry does, on the vehicle question, make its commercialization decision around that 2015 time frame, then the answer is yes. Obviously, we have some daunting technology goals, as we have discussed this morning, and if we miss a few, the date can slip. And this is scenario analysis, similar to what Shell does trying to envision the future. It is impossible to predict the future, so we do the best that we can envisioning different ways the future might unfold.
Mr. LAMPSON. Thanks. Let me ask all of the rest of the panelists now, if you will comment on this. Do you believe that the President's Hydrogen Initiative, as Mr. Garman has laid it out, will result in a complete transition to a hydrogen economy by 2040 or so, and if not, why not? What does the plan lack? And what are realistic goals?
Dr. BURNS. My—I will go ahead and go first. Yeah. I certainly think it is a very important first step, because it has put this issue on the national agenda and it provides an opportunity for everybody to pull together with a common will to make it happen. But it certainly is not going to be sufficient with the level of funding that we are talking about. General Motors, for example, has already spent nearly $1 billion to develop our technology to the point that we have it today. And if we are successful in meeting the goals we have set for ourselves in the next five years, we will likely spend more than the President's program, as our company ourselves, in order to move it forward. I think it is a very important first step, because of the national agenda aspects of it, and it allows us to all talk about it. But there is an awful lot of work to be done, an awful lot of uncertainties that need to be addressed, and we don't know what we don't know at this point in time. So we are going to have to take some important first steps and learn as we go forward.
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Chairman BOEHLERT. A journey of a thousand miles. Continue.
Dr. LLOYD. Oh, I totally agree with Dr. Burns. And I think the other question is I don't think we can afford not to look at that scenario and push as rapidly as is possible for the reason I mentioned, security of many sources. And again, I will—I think that with the type of partnership we are working with at the local level, state level, national level, I think it is critical, because the other part of it, there are international competitions going on. And I think it is very, very important.
I would like to come back to one issue just to set the record straight when I talked about the competition, particularly with a Japanese company. I did want to highlight, I think, the very successful event that General Motors had out in Sacramento, which I think demonstrated the GM technology—the very best a while ago and attribute to Dr. Burns and Dr. McCormick where they run all through their hybrids then right through the fuel cell, also to the high wire. And I think as we discovered during the partnership when Dr. Huberts was Chair, that in fact, what you see there, the public has a vision of what can be done with the hydrogen and the fuel cell, coupling that together. And I think General Motors is—has demonstrated that better than anyone. And I think that is the part we also need to focus on. Give the public something that becomes irresistible. We hadn't talked about today the opportunities to use the vehicle as a source for energy into the house. All sorts of possibilities open up, and I think Dr. Burns and Dr. McCormick are on the very forefront of looking at how we can couple this together. The bottom line is we can not afford not to do this.
Mr. LAMPSON. Thank you. Dr. Ogden. Oh, do you want to—okay. Okay. Thanks. Go ahead.
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Mr. HUBERTS. I think the President's Initiative is very important. I think what is also very important is that the policies are sustained and consistent. And as Mr. Garman pointed out, it is a long-haul effort. This is a marathon. We don't want to run out of steam after the first mile, so if you start too big too soon, sinking too much money into something that is still too expensive that is not sufficiently developed, you are going to run out of steam. So it needs to be a measured effort. Is it modest? Yes, it is modest. Could it be bigger? If you can afford it, make it bigger, but don't start too big, because this is something that needs a long-haul commitment.
Mr. LAMPSON. And Dr. Ogden.
Dr. OGDEN. I think going back to your question about is the sort of time frame that was set forth of 2040 a reasonable thing, I think if the technology advances and if they are successful, then it certainly is a sort of a reasonable thing. Is it an absolute certainty that will happen? No, there are lots of unknowns we don't know about how fast technology will progress, how we will value the things that hydrogen fuel cells could give us in a society in terms of energy, security, and environment. And it could go faster or slower than that, but I think that what was presented there is a reasonable look at what would happen, assuming the technological success and a decision to commercialize.
Chairman BOEHLERT. The gentleman's——
Mr. LAMPSON. Thank you all very much.
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Chairman BOEHLERT. Thank you.
Mr. LAMPSON. Thank you, Mr. Chairman.
Effect of Policy on the Research Agenda
Chairman BOEHLERT. Mr. Garman, you touched on this a little bit in your exchange with Dr. Ehlers, but you indicated in your earlier statement that it is a little bit early to worry about policy, but aren't there policy decisions that will effect the research agenda? For example, won't environmental rules effect the choice of hydrogen sources? And won't sequestration change the way that projects are designed?
Mr. GARMAN. Absolutely. And I think—and perhaps I misspoke, because I was thinking about a narrow range of policy incentives for the purchase of these technologies rather than the broader context of policy measures that perhaps you are—I think, as I indicated in the testimony, the announcement last week in the administration of the future generation approach to integrated coal fired power plants that emit nothing, including carbon and sequestration are an important technology development that we have to consider very strongly. And absolutely, sequestration—the dollars in the President's Hydrogen Initiative, I want to make sure that everyone understands, do not include dollars for sequestration. That is an associated technology, but that is apart from the dollars we are asking for for hydrogen.
Advice From the Panel as to What the Government Needs to Do to Further a Hydrogen Economy
Chairman BOEHLERT. Give us—all of the—give us the best advice you can. What can we do, obviously approve the funding that is requested by the President, but short-term, what do we need to do? What would be your best advice for us? And let us go across the board. Mr. Huberts, do you have anything?
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Mr. HUBERTS. I would say, in the short-term, as a government, be also a user of this technology. Set an example of trying to use this in fleets, in buildings, in defense applications——
Chairman BOEHLERT. So high profiled demonstration projects that have some real meaning?
Mr. HUBERTS. Try—yes, try to get learning and education and also benefits, real benefits. And I think that is something that can be done in the short-term, and it would help the industry in buying down the costs.
Chairman BOEHLERT. Mr. Garman, any special high profile demonstration projects thought about at this stage of the proceeding?
Mr. GARMAN. We are—we have sought, I believe on the order of $13 million, Steve will correct me if I am wrong, for work in demonstration efforts in the early—for the '04 budget. An important word about demonstrations, though, I think it is important to stress that—and I think it is fair to say that the Department of Energy has something of a checkered history and record with respect to demonstrations. Sometimes the Department has done some demonstrations that weren't all that sensible. And sometimes, Congress has asked us to do demonstrations that weren't all that sensible. And I think it is very important that we come together and make sure that the limited amount of money that we do have for demonstrations is really spent to learn what we need to learn to provide the proper kind of feedback to the folks in the lab doing the R&D work rather than just, you know, showcasing the technology. They have to be—we have to get something out of these demonstrations. And that is something we all need to be mindful of.
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Chairman BOEHLERT. Dr. Burns, do you have any thoughts that you would like to share with us?
Dr. BURNS. Yes, I would like to reinforce the learning aspects, and also to tie the demonstrations to real customers, early adopters in particular. The military is showing a high degree of interest in technologies that allow them to reduce the logistics requirements for fighting battles. And hydrogen and fuel cells are unique in that they address two of the three largest requirements for logistics fuel and water, and they are interchangeable. And that flexibility is quite important. Having opportunities to do demonstrations on military bases where we have highly trained military professionals who will be working with us in the development of those codes and standards. And they also will become civilians at some point who can become our engineers and technicians and customers for these technologies would be very beneficial.
I also just want to emphasize that stationary applications or distributed generation is where the first profitable markets likely will exist. So initiatives in the short-term that can encourage those opportunities would be much appreciated.
Chairman BOEHLERT. Thank you very much. Dr. Ogden, do you have a——
Dr. OGDEN. I would say that this is a really great opportunity to take a really long-term view of energy policy and that that has now started with looking as hydrogen as a long-term option in the fuel sector. So just opening that dialogue of ways to do this, I think demonstration projects are very important for people to see how this really works, for there to be open learning about this, what works, what doesn't work, as we go down this road toward looking at something that could be a very valuable technology for our country in the long-term.
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Chairman BOEHLERT. Thank you very much. Dr. Lloyd, do you have any observations?
Dr. LLOYD. Yes. I would say continuing—continuity of funding, I think, was identified before from the government. I think that is important. It is not a one-way street, though. I also think we need continuity of support of working with the industry so that these are actually sustained commitments, so it is a true partnership. I think the California Fuel Cell Partnership is a great example of how we are all working together. Clearly, we recognize that is limited. We would hope that DOE would look at other national partnerships, realizing these can't be duplicated everywhere, but maybe strategic locations throughout the country.
So I think that, again, we have a model here, and I think that my advice would be to follow along the lines we have discussed earlier. And I think that providing adequate funding, providing adequate oversight, and also providing, again, the stimulus not only when we talk about some of—the buy down program, which I think is very important. And I think that was highlighted, the Federal Government has and can continue to play an important role there. But I think the other part of it, when we look at some of the cost sharing that DOE has, what I would suggest there is take a look at some of the areas where maybe some small, innovative companies with high-risk ideas, they may not have the resources to do some cost sharing. So as I indicated in my testimony, take a look at that, maybe reducing cost sharing as the Secretary has the discretion to do that. And maybe also look at some small business aspects, because we have been working on hydrogen storage and generating for many years. DOE has been working on that. We still have not come across the silver bullet. We need all the best ideas we can get.
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Chairman BOEHLERT. Thank you. Taking notes, Mr. Garman?
Mr. GARMAN. I just—if I could just quickly correct the record. I said that there were $13 million in the '04 budget for demonstration work, that is only on the infrastructure side. We have $15 million on the vehicle side, so the total is——
Chairman BOEHLERT. About 28.
Mr. GARMAN.—28 million. Yes, sir.
Details of the Decision-making Process at the California Fuel Cell Partnership
Chairman BOEHLERT. That is good, because 13 million is petty cash around here. Thank you very much. Mr. Bell, have you got your question in? Do you have any questions? Let me—Dr. Lloyd and Mr. Huberts, as the current past chairman of the California Fuel Cell Partnership, would you comment on the process the partnership employs in making decisions on what projects deserve support? And specifically, what kinds of demonstration projects are most needed right now to promote the adoption of hydrogen technology? Dr. Lloyd, do you want to go first? Or Mr. Huberts? Do you want to flip a coin?
Mr. HUBERTS. I will go first. The process we use in the California Fuel Cell Partnership is a decision making process based on consensus. So we have 20 partners around the table who together decide what kind of studies we do, what kind of project we support and how we support those. There is a consensus making process. We deliberately chose that process, because we have so many different interests around the table that if we did it any other way, we would lose, sooner or later, certain of the members.
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On what projects are important, certainly in the infrastructure area, we need to test out different options for producing hydrogen and also what we need to do in California is integrate those into the corner gas station. As you know, Shell is going to do that here in Washington. It is something that we believe needs to be done also in California, integrating it into the real life situation. How does the design work? How do you get through the process? How do you make it customer friendly? All of those aspects we need to test out in practice. And the partnership is very well suited for that, because it provides a framework for having a volume of vehicles there and also it provides the framework for learning. We have different energy companies working together there in a pretty competitive R&D situation. We can share information about safety issues for everything, etcetera. So that is where we will be focusing in the years ahead.
Chairman BOEHLERT. Thank you. Dr. Lloyd, do you care to add anything?
Dr. LLOYD. Yes, I would. Again, I think it has been a wonderful example of, as Don said, consensus building, which to me has benefited tremendously. I think we have got partnership stations. We have got partnership infrastructure. We have got partnership activities as we have exposed those to public. We have got our own—I have mentioned, we have got our own partnership stations in the north of California and growing in the south.
But we also have partnerships growing up, so that, as Don mentioned today, you see one coming out in Washington. But we also have partners working in California, so—as we have seen with Toyota and with Honda getting vehicles and DiamlerChrysler, Ford, etcetera, working with some of the various partners and government partners. So in fact, I think that that is being greatly facilitated by the partnership having all of the appropriate partners together at the local level. And we have seen the great benefits of having DOE—DOT, who does a lot of work on the safety side, and EPA, in terms of certification of some of these fuel cell vehicles. So I think that—again we hope that this could be a model for a lot of things that could be going on.
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The other—I will just make one other point, if I may. One of our partners, for example, the South Coast Air Quality Management District has been very aggressive in natural gas vehicles. They are now also encouraging and may be requiring that the compressors used for natural gas be compatible with hydrogen. That is a cost savings that in the future when hydrogen is there, you can make that compatible. There are also discussions of using hydrogen engines to get—in fact, get the infrastructure out there. So all of those things are going on. And that was not part of the fuel cell partnership in that case, but through the partners.
Chairman BOEHLERT. Thank you. And I think the President and the Administration deserve a great deal of credit for elevating significantly the profile of this issue. The State of the Union, you can't get a higher profile than that. And this is but the first of many hearings we are going to have on this subject, not just in this committee, but in the various Committees of the House and the Senate. And we are excited about the prospects for the future. And we are excited about the partnership that is obvious within the private sector. We are excited about what DOE and your people are doing. And you are going to be hearing a lot more from us about this.
And with that, for the last word, I turn to the Distinguished Chair of the Subcommittee, Ms. Biggert.
Re-allocation of Funds at DOE in Order to Account for the Hydrogen Initiative
Ms. BIGGERT. Thank you very much, Mr. Chairman, for those kind words. I just have a quick follow-up question and maybe one more. And that is Mr. Garman again, and I—you said that the Hydrogen Initiative involves 721 million in new funding. And the remainder of the 1.2 billion is reallocated funding. So I am still not sure where this goes. So can you be more specific about where the new funding is going and what programs will be subject to reallocation, like, for instance, if your office is going to get the new funding while the Office of Science will have to reallocate its existing resources to contribute to the Hydrogen Initiative?
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Mr. GARMAN. No, the difference is between—in the new funding is between the base that we were already funding and the additional dollars that will be added on top of that base, so to put it in another way, nobody's ox will get gored to fund the initiative.
Ms. BIGGERT. All right. So there won't have to be any cuts, like in looking at solar power or any of the new other initiatives? Those are still going to be important to this?
Mr. GARMAN. The planning profile that we have been provided can accommodate a robust renewable energy program as well as this new initiative as well as the President's commitment on weatherization funding and some of the other work that we do in our office.
Ms. BIGGERT. Okay. So it will focus on alternatives as well as the hydrogen?
Mr. GARMAN. Yes, ma'am.
Timetable for Stationary vs. Vehicle Fuel Cell Usage
Ms. BIGGERT. Okay. Then just to follow-up, at a field hearing that we held last June, it was apparent that people—I don't think that very many people realize that fuel cells have applications other than automobiles. And that—and one statement was made there that we are likely to see a fuel cell installed in a home or a subdivision or—long before we are going to see that under the hood of a car. And that—so is this program going to focus on the use of hydrogen for stationary fuel cells as well as, you know, to power homes, office buildings, as well as the FreedomCAR? I mean, does the FreedomCAR include that within the program?
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Mr. GARMAN. Yes. And you have raised a very important distinction. We think that the first fuel cell applications you will see are in consumer electronics. And then you will see it then in stationary applications, and then you will see it in vehicles. It is—we are working on vehicles, because they are the hardest in terms of weight, cost, you know, to get a fuel cell down to, you know, 35 cents a kilowatt. That fuel cell—that proton exchange membrane, polymer electrolyte membrane fuel cell will be economic long before that when it is in the hundreds of dollars per kilowatt in a stationary setting. So what we are really doing is we are going after the hardest thing we know to go after. And the ancillary benefits for stationary and these other applications will accrue as well. And the work that we are doing in hydrogen storage and production will benefit those stationary and earlier applications as well. Yes.
Ms. BIGGERT. Thank you. Would anybody else like to comment on that?
Mr. HUBERTS. I just—Mr. Garman, you said 35 cents per kilowatt. Did you mean $35?
Mr. GARMAN. No, I am sorry. I meant $35 per kilowatt.
Ms. BIGGERT. I was impressed.
Dr. BURNS. We see some very exciting business opportunities associated with distributive generation. David used the number of $35 for the stack. We think in terms of what we call the power module, which is also the storage of the hydrogen as well. In the area of $500 per kilowatt to $1,000 per kilowatt, there is a wide range of business opportunities in distributive generation. We call that premium power. These are customers who absolutely can't have their power go down, because it is very costly. Some financial companies would experience losses as much as $5 million an hour if they lost their power and couldn't do their transactions. So those business incentives are very significant to have the opportunity to apply the technology in a more stationary environment, which is less aggressive than in the automobile environment, allows us to learn from a durability standpoint, allows us to learn from handling of the hydrogen and the safety systems and other things, quite honestly allows us to generate some revenue and hopefully some profit that will help continue to feed the kinds of investments we will need to make to get to $50 per kilowatt for a widespread automotive application. We believe that is possible, and we think it is a great way to roll out the technology.
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Ms. BIGGERT. Thank you. I, too, thank you for excellent presentations and look forward to continuing the discussion on hydrogen. Thank you.
Chairman BOEHLERT. Thank you very much. Mr. Garman, I can't close without revisiting the ox being gored. I mean, I think—can we agree that it is subject to interpretation and further discussion, I mean, investment and industry efficiency program is down. We are great in this committee. We want all of these areas to go up, because they offer such great, great dividends for mankind, our investment in these programs. And so would you agree that it is subject to further discussion?
Mr. GARMAN. Absolutely, Mr. Chairman. It——
Chairman BOEHLERT. With that—the State Department could use you. You are a diplomat. I want to thank all of the witnesses for being such informative resources for this committee. And while we will end the panel and the deliberation today, we will not end the relationship that we have established with each of you, and you will be receiving additional questions in writing. And on occasion, you can expect to receive calls from some of our brilliant staff people back here, because we are partners in this venture. And it is exciting. And I think we—what we are about offers great promises for the future. I think we are all guilty of a major sin if we overstate the case, but we can be enthusiastic as we look forward, and if we maintain this great partnership, evidenced by the venture you announced today, GM and Shell, and the open relationship you have with our government. And you know—and when Dave Garman says, ''I am from the government. I am here to help,'' don't laugh. Say, ''We want to work with you to help.'' And together, I think we can move forward and accomplish something worthy of note. Thank you so much. This hearing is adjourned.
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[Whereupon, at 2:42 p.m., the Committee was adjourned.]
Appendix 1:
Answers to Post-Hearing Questions
ANSWERS TO POST-HEARING QUESTIONS
Responses by David K. Garman, Assistant Secretary for Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy, U.S. Department of Energy
Questions submitted by the House Committee on Science
Q1. Toward the end of the hearing, you indicated that you agreed that policy choices can affect the research agenda for the Hydrogen Initiative.
Q1a. Which policy decisions need to be factored in now as you shape the research agenda?
A1a. In order to ensure that the Administration's hydrogen efforts are well coordinated and consistent, the Department considers a variety of relevant Administration policies in deciding its R&D agenda. Foremost among these is the President's National Energy Policy, which provides both guidance and context for our hydrogen R&D efforts. As policies change, the Department will revisit its research agenda to ensure that such changes are incorporated.
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Q1b. How, for example, will you decide which sources of hydrogen to focus on?
A1b. Energy security is best achieved by generating hydrogen from diverse domestic resources, such as renewables, nuclear and fossil-based resources. Only through this diversity can vulnerabilities from disruptions in supply be reduced.
Q1c. How will you decide how much emphasis to give to carbon sequestration?
A1c. Carbon sequestration is one technology in a robust portfolio of R&D activities. It is a key technology if fossil-based hydrogen production is eventually to be free of greenhouse gas emissions. As with other programs, funding allocations for carbon sequestration will be based on relative priority, program performance, expected potential for public benefits, alignment with the Administration's R&D investment criteria, and other factors.
Q1d. Can such research decisions be made without making assumptions or decision about the future policy environment?
A1d. The Department's R&D efforts are designed to facilitate a fuel cell vehicle and hydrogen infrastructure commercialization decision by industry by the year 2015. It is quite clear that the policy environment, and market conditions, existing at that time will influence those decisions by industry. However, the future 2015 policy environment is highly uncertain and not something that can usefully guide the Department's research agenda—which is targeted at addressing known high risk technology barriers. As our research efforts continue to produce key results and as both the near- and longer-term policy framework develops, we will reassess whether changes in the research agenda are needed.
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Q1e. Does the Department believe that auto manufacturers would begin offering fuel cell cars in 2020 absent government involvement—whether that be tax incentives, infrastructure investments or regulation?
A1e. Given current policy conditions and technology challenges, the Department believes that it is unlikely that auto manufacturers would begin to offer fuel cell vehicles in 2020 absent government involvement. However, it is premature to speculate what kind of specific policy instruments will be appropriate at that time.
Q2. In response to a budget question from Mrs. Biggert, you stated that, ''nobody's ox is going to be gored'' by funding increases for the Hydrogen initiative, and that future funding profiles will provide for ''a robust renewable energy program.'' Yet the FY04 request proposes to cut the energy R&D programs within EERE that are not related to hydrogen by eight percent compared to the FY03 request. In fact, some programs, such as the biomass and industrial technologies programs are reduced by almost 30 percent. How do you reconcile this fact with your statements that other programs are not being sacrificed to pay for the hydrogen initiative? Does the Administration assume that the outyear funding for the hydrogen initiative will also come primarily from cutting other EERE programs? Will the Office of Science programs be cut to pay for the hydrogen initiative as well?
A2. EERE funding from FY 2003 to FY 2004 is relatively flat. EERE's FY 2004 request for every non-hydrogen R&D program except Biomass and Industrial Technologies remains nearly level with its FY 2003 request level or Congressional appropriation. Funding for Biomass R&D was shifted in light of complementary funding in the 2002 Farm Bill, as well as a substantial number of non-mission supporting earmarks in the FY 2003 appropriations. Reductions in Industrial Technologies R&D result from recognition that the industrial sector is the most energy efficient sector of our economy, and industries, particularly energy-intensive industries, are succeeding in their attempts to be more energy efficient.
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The Administration does not assume that outyear funding for the Hydrogen Fuel Initiative will come from cutting EERE, the Office of Science, or other programs. However, each year, the Administration may propose reallocations within its energy technology portfolio based on program performance, relative priority, expected potential for public benefits, alignment with the Administration's R&D investment criteria, and other factors.
Q3. In your discussion of the biomass program, you reference Congressional earmark levels as one reason why cuts are proposed for that program in the FY04 budget. However, roughly half of the cuts to the biomass program are proposed for the portion of the program funded through the Interior Appropriations account, which has never been significantly earmarked. What are the reasons for these proposed cuts?
A3. The Interior Appropriations reductions are all in one program—gasification technologies for forest and paper industry applications. Work in this area has progressed to the point where the private sector can complete it.
Q4. What role do you expect academic researchers to play in the hydrogen initiative? How much of the program will focus on basic research? How will the department pull together a basic research agenda that would contribute to the hydrogen initiative?
A4. Universities typically conduct a large portion of the Department's basic research. In the near-term, EERE anticipates a ramping up of efforts from universities for research on hydrogen storage. For example, a competitive solicitation will go out in three months. Basic research for which university capabilities are well suited include non-precious metal catalysts and high temperature polymer membranes for fuel cell systems, hydrogen storage materials, and high temperature materials critical to nuclear production of hydrogen. For example, on March 14, 2003, we conducted a hydrogen storage ''Think Tank'' meeting that included 10 university scientists to brainstorm breakthrough ideas that might solve the hydrogen storage issue. New projects are being planned that will include university participation beginning in FY 2004.
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The Department is finalizing a broad research framework and a multi-year plan to support the successful implementation of the initiative. In addition to the office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy, these efforts will include contributions from DOE's Offices of Science, Fossil Energy and Nuclear Energy, as well as the Department of Transportation.
Q5. How much of the budget request for the hydrogen initiative will be devoted toward the production of hydrogen with renewable energy, such as wind and solar power?
A5. Out of a total of $38.5 million for hydrogen production research in the FY 2004 Budget Request for the Hydrogen Fuel Initiative, $17.3 million is for research on the production of hydrogen with renewable energy.
Q6. Please provide for the record a copy of the Department's ''well-to-wheels'' analysis comparing hydrogen with other fuels and a copy of the study by the EIA of the impact on natural gas supplies and prices of using natural gas as a major source of hydrogen production.
A6. Copies of the Department's ''well-to-wheels'' analysis and the EIA study are attached.
ATTACHMENT
Assumptions for the Increased Penetration of Hydrogen Fuel Cell Technologies
Introduction
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The assumptions provided below describe the inputs used to evaluate the impact of alternative scenarios regarding the increased penetration of hydrogen fueled proton-exchange membrane (PEM) fuel cells. These assumptions were used to emulate the scenarios provided by the Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EE). Four scenarios were constructed that differ from one another based on commercialization date (2011 or 2018) and whether there are production mandates for light duty vehicle manufacturers. Production mandates assume that light duty vehicle manufacturers are required to produce mainly fuel-cell vehicles, limiting their production of gasoline vehicles. This assumption was required to meet the penetration rates specified by EE. However, 100 percent penetration was not achievable by 2020 in the 2011 commercialization date scenario (see attached table). The four scenarios are:
Commercialization in 2011 Without Production Mandates,
Commercialization in 2018 Without Production Mandates,
Commercialization in 2011 With Production Mandates, and
Commercialization in 2018 With Production Mandates.
These cases assume that by the commercialization date (2011 or 2018), the increased research and development (R&D) provides a fuel cell stack at a cost that can be sold for $30 a kilowatt, reaching parity with the conventional gasoline vehicle. Where applicable, the cost reductions for PEM fuel cells and associated electronics are also captured in the other (non-transportation) demand sectors. The scenarios assume that other market conditioning (federal policies that encourage the development of a hydrogen infrastructure and auto manufacturer production of hydrogen fueled fuel cell vehicles) will be required for mass consumer acceptance of this technology (e.g., production mandates).
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The National Energy Modeling System (NEMS) was used to estimate the impacts of introducing such fuel cells as a potential technology in end-use energy markets, based on the Annual Energy Outlook 2003 (AEO2003) Reference Case. The fuel cell system costs assumed for each sector are discussed below.
Detailed Assumptions
Transportation
In the transportation sector, a PEM fuel cell system cost vehicle is assumed to be at cost parity with a gasoline-powered vehicle by the date of commercialization.
Buildings
Performance characteristics and operating and maintenance (O&M) costs for fuel cells were assumed to improve over time as in the AEO2003 reference case. However, the installed cost per kilowatt (kW) for fuel cells available by the date of commercialization (2011 or 2018) was modified to correspond to the cost breakthroughs assumed for the fuel cell vehicle. Starting with the characteristics for the current 200 kW PEM fuel cell found in the National Renewable Energy Laboratory's (NREL) draft technology characterizations for fuel cell systems, the fuel stack cost was reduced to $20/kW, the thermal management component cost was reduced by h to account for components already included in the ''fuel cell engine'' and for expected cost declines by commercialization date, and all other elements of the current installed cost were reduced by the same percentage as the cost decline between 2000 and the commercialization date in the AEO2003 reference case fuel cell characterization. The resulting cost for fuel cells installed in the buildings sectors was $1130/kW, 67 percent lower than the current PEM fuel cell cost and 34 percent lower than the installed cost in the AEO2003 reference case. The installed cost/kW was assumed to remain at the commercialization date level through 2025, unless the level of penetration resulted in lower costs due to technology learning, in which case further reductions would occur.
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Industrial
For the industrial sector, the 10 megawatt (MW) gas turbine option in the combined heat and power (CHP) menu was replaced by a 10 MW fuel cell, with the cost and overall heat rate assumptions modified. The cost in 2000 was assumed to be $4600/kW, dropping to $500/kW by 2020.
Electricity Generators
In the reference case, fuel cell capital costs are assumed to decline from $2,137 per kilowatt in 2002 to $1,329 per kilowatt in 2017 and beyond. The heat rate is assumed to drop from 7,500 Btu per kilowatt-hour in 2002, to 6,750 Btu per kilowatt-hour over the next 10 years. Variable O&M costs are assumed to be two cents per kilowatt-hour, while fixed O&M costs are assumed to be $7.15 per kilowatt per year.
In the cases prepared for this analysis, capital costs were assumed to gradually decline from the initial $2137/kW in 2002 to $1347/kW in 2014, then steeply drop to $860/kW for the next five years, finally reaching $429/kW by 2020. The heat rate is assumed to be the same as reference case values through 2014, and then change to 7508 Btu/kWh through 2019, falling to 6826/kWh in 2020. Variable O&M costs are assumed to stay at the Reference case value of 20.44 mills per kilowatt-hour through 2014, and then fall to 5.19 mills per kilowatt-hour for 2015 and beyond.
Finally, fixed O&M costs are assumed to stay at the $7.15 per kilowatt-hour reference case value through 2014 and then rise to $14.18 for 2015 and beyond.
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85417m16.eps
Question submitted by Representative W. Todd Akin
Q1. I have noticed in the FY04 budget request that DOE is requesting $17.3 million for renewables for hydrogen production. However, in the DOE's Hydrogen Energy Roadmap, you note that such methods as solar hear and photoelectrochemical electrolysis are still in early development stages. Do you feel that an investment of $17 million is the best use of scarce resources or do you feel that part of this money could be more appropriately used in other areas of hydrogen production such as natural gas?
A1. DOE is dedicating $12.2 million for research on hydrogen production from natural gas, of which $6.5 million is for the Office of Fossil Energy's research on centralized production of natural gas, and $5.7 million for research in the Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy on decentralized hydrogen production.
Since one of the primary advantages of a hydrogen economy is the ability to produce hydrogen from a diverse array of domestic resources, this allocation represents a balance between near- and long-term research goals and among a portfolio of potential hydrogen production technologies.
In addition, large-scale centralized production of hydrogen from natural gas is the method currently used by industry to produce nine million tons of hydrogen each year. Some improvements to this methodology are within the industry's capability and interest.
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Question submitted by Representative Gil Gutknecht
Q1. In her testimony, Dr. Joan Ogden noted that wind turbines are a potential source for electrolytic hydrogen production. If we as a country are to move toward a hydrogen economy, we need to get serious about also increasing the amount of wind power we produce.
Today, small wind systems are too expensive for most individuals to purchase, and the Federal Production Tax Credit for wind energy benefits only large corporations. What changes would you suggest in the Federal Production Tax Credit, and/or what other ways can Congress promote the expansion of small-scale wind development? Moreover, what research is the Department planning to do on producing hydrogen from wind?
A1. Hydrogen can be produced from diverse domestic resources, including wind-generated electricity, using electrolyzers which split water molecules into hydrogen and oxygen. Our analysis has suggested that wind energy has the potential to produce a large volume of hydrogen from pathways that may include energy provided by large-scale wind farms as well as small-scale wind systems for distributed applications.
The Department's small wind systems activities are focused on reducing energy costs by developing technology and breaking down market barriers. Currently, the cost of energy from small wind turbines used in distributed power applications is in the range of 10 to 15 cents per kWh for Class 5 winds (13.4 to 14.3 mph average). The research goal of the Department's distributed wind technology program is to increase the efficiency of these turbines so that they will generate power at the same cost in lighter, more common, Class 3 winds (11.5 to 12.5 mph average).
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The Department supports extension of the wind energy provision of the Federal Production Tax Credit (PTC), which applies to small business-use wind turbines, as proposed in the President's FY 2003 and FY 2004 budgets.
The Department of Energy is developing low-cost, high efficiency electrolyzers to enable cost competitive hydrogen production from electricity sources, including wind. Electrolyzer costs need to be reduced by a factor of over two for large systems and over three for small systems while maintaining or improving system efficiency. The Department has begun an analytic modeling project to investigate the viability of large and small-scale wind energy and electrolysis options, in the context of exploring infrastructure scenarios for hydrogen production, storage, and delivery.
ANSWERS TO POST-HEARING QUESTIONS
Responses by Alan C. Lloyd, 2003 Chairman for the California Fuel Cell Partnership
Focus of the President's FreedomCAR and Hydrogen Initiatives
Q1. Should the President's FreedomCAR and Hydrogen Initiatives focus more on nearer-term applications, such as hybrid technologies, including diesel hybrids?
A1. As proposed by the President, the Department of Energy's vehicle research programs have an appropriate balance between research into technologies for the short-term and those for the longer-term. The U.S. should take advantage of the development and commercialization of extremely low emitting and high energy-efficiency technologies that, while they are not the ultimate goal, provide meaningful and substantial social benefits. FreedomCAR and the 21st Century Truck Initiative together make a $150 million investment in these advanced vehicle technologies, and their commercialization would provide significant near-term environmental and energy-efficiency rewards. At the same time, the President's proposal recognizes the need to take a longer-term view by fostering the continued development of fuel cell vehicle technologies (FCVs) and advanced fuels.
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FCVs are considered by many to be the ''holy grail'' of vehicle technologies. They have the potential to eliminate vehicle pollution and greenhouse gas emissions, increase the Nation's energy security, and offer unique benefits to consumers (i.e., quiet operation, more electronic capabilities, etc.) FCVs are a long-term strategy that will not be commercially available at a cost-competitive price to individuals for several years (approximately ten years). The U.S. cannot ignore the need to continue a critical trend to reduce harmful vehicle emissions and increase energy efficiency while FCV technology matures.
Near-term technologies that advance the development of componentry for fuel cell vehicles include electric vehicles, hybrid electric vehicles, compressed natural gas and compressed natural gas hybrid electric vehicles, hydrogen internal combustion engine (ICE) and hydrogen ICE hybrid electric vehicles, and grid hybrid vehicles. These vehicle technologies also support the development and use of technologies and components that contribute to the commercialization of FCVs. The balance between the shorter-term and longer-term programs in the President's proposals seems to me to be the appropriate one.
Importance of the Involvement of Smaller Companies and International Manufacturers
Q2. In your experience, how important is it that the Administration involve smaller, technology-based companies, such as fuel cell manufacturers, in helping to shape the research agenda of these new initiatives? How about international manufacturers? What do such companies offer that the major domestic petroleum and auto companies are less able to?
A2. Our experience in California has been such that the smaller technology-based companies (manufacturers of fuel cells and hydrogen production technologies) have been the pioneers that are ready to make the vision of a hydrogen based economy successful. The U.S. will only benefit by including the input of smaller technology companies in shaping a research agenda and accelerating the path toward an energy solution that will eliminate harmful emissions and increase energy security.
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The drive and experience of smaller companies is not limited to U.S. companies. In addition, the entire fuel cell industry is internationalizing rapidly, and the auto industry is already internationalized. The U.S. stands to benefit from the cost reductions resulting from competition between technology companies no matter where they are located, either corporate headquarters or manufacturing facilities.
ANSWERS TO POST-HEARING QUESTIONS
Responses by Joan M. Ogden, Research Scientist, Princeton Environmental Institute
Impacts of Using Natural Gas as a Source of Hydrogen
Q1. Could you provide for the record your analysis of the impact on the natural gas market of using natural gas as a major source for producing hydrogen for transportation?
A1. As an extreme case, let's consider using hydrogen derived from natural gas to power all the light duty vehicles in the U.S., at projected 2020 levels of energy use. How does the required amount of natural gas compare to projections for total natural gas use?
We use as input, information on U.S. energy consumption from the latest USDOE Energy Information Agency Annual Energy Outlook,
http://www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/aeo/index.html
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http://www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/aeo/supplement/sup–tran.pdf
What is the projected Energy Use in U.S. Light Duty Vehicles?
The energy use in all U.S. light duty vehicles (cars and light trucks) is estimated to be about 15.7 trillion BTU/year in 2002 growing to about 23.5 trillion BTU/year by 2020.
These projections are based on the following assumptions for the U.S.:
Light-duty vehicle miles traveled are projected to grow by 2.4 percent per year from 2000 through 2020. (This is mostly a result of a growing number of vehicles.)
New light-duty vehicle efficiency is projected to reach 25.6 miles per gallon by 2020. However, the fleet average in-use fuel economy (which determines actual fuel use) is projected to be 19.7 miles per gallon in 2002, and 19.8 miles per gallon in 2020.
How much energy would be needed if hydrogen was a major transportation fuel?
Based on calculations by our group and others, it appears that an efficient hydrogen fuel cell vehicle might have a fuel economy 3–4 times that of today's gasoline internal combustion engine vehicles. Our models indicate fuel economies of 82 miles per gallon equivalent for 4–5 passenger mid-size H fuel cell vehicles, (and perhaps 80 percent of this for hydrogen internal combustion engine hybrids). (With further use of lightweight materials, studies by MIT and by our group suggest the fuel economy for a H FCV could exceed 100 mpg.)
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The total fuel consumption goes down as the fuel economy goes up. If the fuel economy for a hydrogen car is three times that of a reference gasoline car, then the energy use goes down by a factor of three (assuming each car drives the same number of miles per year). The EIA projects that future light duty vehicles will use 23.5 trillion BTU/y in 2020. If H FCVs were used instead, the light duty vehicle hydrogen energy demand would be about one third of this or 7.8 trillion BTU/y [=(23.5 trillion BTU/yr)/3].
How much natural gas would be needed to make enough hydrogen for all U.S. light duty vehicles?
Natural gas can be converted to hydrogen at about 80 percent efficiency in large steam reformers. There is also electricity needed for compression of hydrogen for high-pressure storage on vehicles. Making the electricity requires additional energy, which might come from natural gas. Overall, for each 100 units of natural gas energy used (82 units at the hydrogen plant and 18 units to power electricity generation for compression) about 70 units of hydrogen energy would be available in the car's fuel tank. So, if 7.8 trillion BTU of H would be needed to power the entire light duty vehicle sector, this would require about 11 trillion BTU of natural gas as input in 2020.
How does this compare to projected natural gas use?
Total demand for natural gas is projected to increase at an average annual rate of 1.8 percent between 2001 and 2020, from 22.7 trillion cubic feet to 34.9 trillion cubic feet, primarily because of rapid growth in demand for electricity generation. One trillion cubic feet of natural gas contains roughly 1 trillion BTU of energy.
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So the natural gas needed to make enough H for all light duty vehicles would increase natural gas use nationally in 2020 by a little less than one third = (11 trillion BTU/35 trillion BTU).
This is not a negligible amount of natural gas, but it does not represent a doubling or tripling of natural gas demand either.
Of course, not all vehicles will run on hydrogen by 2020. I just used this figure to make a point.
For a still optimistic but more reasonable, case, if 10 percent of all light duty vehicles used H from natural gas in 2020, this would require about 1.1 trillion BTU of natural gas per year representing only about a three percent increase in projected natural gas use. For reference, we already use about this much natural gas to make hydrogen industrially today for refineries and chemical uses.
What are the prospects for using natural gas to make H?
Even for the very extreme assumption that all the light duty vehicles in the U.S. ran on hydrogen, the use of natural gas was increased by only about g. For a more reasonable (but still quite optimistic) level of 10 percent H light duty vehicles by 2020, the natural gas use is increased only three percent. This highlights that point that natural gas could be a very important transitional source for H over the next several decades, without a huge impact on natural gas markets. As I mentioned in my earlier testimony, it is likely that hydrogen will be made from a variety of sources in the future, not just natural gas.
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Evaluation of the Accuracy of Comparative Fuel Studies
Q2. Several well-to-wheels analyses have appeared recently comparing hydrogen to other fuels with conflicting results For example, the Argonne Labs study cited by the Department differed with the conclusions of the recently updated MIT study regarding the advantages of hydrogen powered vehicles over diesel hybrids How should policy-makers evaluate which of these highly technical studies is accurate, especially given the range of opinions in the literature?
A2. The differing results of various well-to-wheels studies are a result of the differing input assumptions. There is considerable uncertainty in some of the inputs (performance and cost of future vehicle components), and also considerable room for different approaches to vehicle design, that could give differing relative fuel economies of H vehicles versus diesel hybrids, for example. These factors explain why the results from two studies can seem contradictory, yet each is correct for the particular set of assumptions adopted by the researcher.
Most well-to-wheels studies I have examined are broadly consistent (to within the uncertainty of the results) on several issues:
It should be possible to improve fuel economy of gasoline internal combustion engine vehicles by a factor of 1.5–2 compared to today's gasoline cars, with improvements like lightweight materials, streamlining and hybrid drive trains.
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The well-to-wheel emissions of greenhouse gases can be significantly reduced as compared to today's vehicles (by perhaps 50 percent) by adopting advanced gasoline or diesel internal combustion vehicles.
The well-to-wheels primary energy use for advanced H vehicles (H fuel cells or H ICE hybrids) is similar to that for a gasoline or diesel hybrid. Unlike gasoline or diesel, the hydrogen can be made from a variety of sources.
Compared to diesel or gasoline hybrids, H vehicles have similar well-to-wheels greenhouse gas emissions when hydrogen is made from natural gas, but much lower emissions when H is made from decarbonized fossil sources (H from natural gas or coal with CO sequestration) or from renewables (wind, biomass, solar).
Given the uncertainties in the inputs, seeming contradictions among these studies are often ''within the bounds of uncertainty.'' Rather than choosing one of these studies, as most accurate, it behooves policy-makers to understand that there are gains to be made, but the precise amount is not exactly known now. It is important that managers of the programs in the DOE understand the differences among these studies (I think they do), and to look for areas where R&D might have an impact in improving vehicle performance or reducing emissions or cost.
There is also an issue of when a given vehicle technology could be ready to help deal with environmental and energy supply problems. It will be a while before hydrogen could be widely used, but cleaner, more efficient internal combustion engine technologies (like hybrids) could be widely used in the interim, while hydrogen is being developed.
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ANSWERS TO POST-HEARING QUESTIONS
Responses by Lawrence D. Burns, Vice President, Research Development and Planning, General Motors
Availability of Fuel Cell Vehicles to Consumers
Q1. In your testimony, you state that GM has made a commitment to having fuel cell vehicles for sale by 2010. Will these vehicles be offered for sale to a limited market, similar to the programs Toyota and Honda have in place today, or will they be available for the average consumer at competitive prices in the mass market?
A1. Hydrogen fuel cell vehicles must realize a significant share of the global auto market to yield beneficial energy and environmental impacts. As such, they must be as affordable as today's vehicles, sustainable from an environmental and energy perspective, compelling from a design and value standpoint, and profitable (to attract capital to grow capacity). GM is working hard and committing significant resources to realize these criteria as soon as possible.
Our goal is to be the first auto company to profitably build and sell one million fuel cell vehicles. We believe this is possible by the middle of the next decade. As an interim stretch goal, we are targeting to have the capability of building an affordable (to the average customer) and compelling fuel cell vehicle by 2010. The primary motivation for us to meet the 2010 date is the significant business growth opportunity resulting from reinventing the automobile around fuel cells, electric drive, by-wire controls, and hydrogen.
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The two toughest technical challenges to meeting our 2010 stretch goal are the cost of the fuel cell propulsion module and how best to store hydrogen on-board the vehicle. Realizing our 2010 goal requires us to overcome these challenges. While we are determined to do just that, the inherent risks and uncertainties associated with developing new technologies means you should view our plans as goals, rather than commitments.
Having affordable and compelling vehicles is an important necessary condition for generating high demand for fuel cell vehicles. However, conveniently available and competitively priced hydrogen is also an important condition. Vehicle affordability will also be directly affected by a number of government policies, including federal tax policy towards fuel cell vehicles and hydrogen, and the resolution of a number of issues related to codes and standards. Other government policies can have a more indirect effect on vehicle affordability, including the level of support for federal research into fuel cells and hydrogen storage, and early procurement by federal agencies of fuel cell vehicles as well as stationary fuel cells.
Appendix 2:
Additional Material for the Record
(Footnote 1 return)
www.eere.energy.gov/hydrogenandfuelcells/pdfs/national–h2–roadmap.pdf
(Footnote 2 return)
http://www.ott.doe.gov/educational–tools.shtml
(Footnote 3 return)
Fuel Cells and Hydrogen: The Path Forward, B. Rose, February, 2003. Available online at: www.fuelcellpath.org
(Footnote 4 return)
Bringing Fuel Cell Vehicles to Market: Scenarios and Challenges with Fuel Alternatives, Bevilacqua-Kinght, Inc., October, 2001. Available online at: http://www.cafcp.org/event—roundtable.html
(Footnote 5 return)
''Shell Hydrogen'' refers to a global business consisting of separate companies and other organizational entities within the Royal Dutch/Shell group of companies. Each of the companies of the Royal Dutch/Shell group of companies is an independent entity and has its own separate identity.